NZD/USD | Page 182 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

NZD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

Milking 4 pairs AUD/NZD, EUR/GBP,NZD/CAD & AUD/CAD for a living 38 replies

Gbp/nzd,gbp/usd,nzd/usd analysis 3 replies

trading gbp/nzd with nzd/usd overlay 6 replies

NZD/JPY AUD/NZD basket 3 replies

Attachments: NZD/USD
Exit Attachments

NZD/USD

  • #3,621
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:40pm Mar 12, 2014 4:40pm
Guys, this is awesome stuff. I jumped in long aiming for 0.84400.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd-h1-international-capital-markets-3.png Size: 82 KB


Guess what? Momentum is biased upwards.. you could argue that we are close to multiyear highs, that there's huge resistance up there... totally true but...;

Attached Image


Retail crowds have never been so short on the New Zealland Dollar (this chart is from 08 March so not so accurate for today, but still gives a clue of todays retail positioning...)

I think we can expect a strong push from dealers and large speculators to trigger huge stops up there, unload some longs opened at lower levels and put pressure on all institutional shorts... lets play with them And put some pressure on weaker traders
  • #3,622
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:45pm Mar 12, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Hm I suppose you got me on that one pretty good! Although I have to say, having the NZD high isn't sustainable for our economy when it comes to our exports sector. Which broker is that? I've never heard of such a thing nor experienced anything like that? Sounds fishy..
It's Interactive Brokers. And so far they are the only broker that does that, I don't know why. Even the bucket shops don't do that so I don't know. Read their last minutes this is what they said. I know when your currency is too strong, eventually it's going to hurt your exports, so I guess raising the int. rate would make it even worse.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,623
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:03pm Mar 12, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
RBNZ HEADLINES (vis Order Flow News): Speed of rate rises will depend of data, inflation. Moderation in housing market. Says high NZ Dollar remains a headwind, NZD level not sustainable in long term. Annual CPI 1.9% by year end, seen rising to 2.1% by early 2016. GDP growth seen peaking at 3.5% in 2015 Export demand may weaken if China sees financial disruption RBNZ Asst. Gov McDermott: Neutral Rates Remain around 4.5% RBNZ Gov Wheeler in press conference: "Fair to say will see further...
Thanks, I've read the minutes but confused with this statement “Dairy sector high share of exports something to think about”.

Anyone can do me a favor interpret it?

Also I quit half of my shorting NZD positions and refilled'em after the talk since I still hold my view on short-term shorting NZD. Altho I rise my TP quite a bit
  • #3,624
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:06pm Mar 12, 2014 5:06pm
Longs hopping in on today's rate hike are last to enter off this data, and will be first to leave once it falls.

Today's Bank of New Zealand Markets Wrap & Strategy
  • #3,625
  • Edited 5:35pm Mar 12, 2014 5:06pm | Edited 5:35pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} It's Interactive Brokers. And so far they are the only broker that does that, I don't know why. Even the bucket shops don't do that so I don't know. Read their last minutes this is what they said. I know when your currency is too strong, eventually it's going to hurt your exports, so I guess raising the int. rate would make it even worse.
One thing I know for certain is NZ is not Europe nor America. The economy almost all based on low-end exports and tourists, both will be severely dampened by high exchange rate. I might be ignorant but never heard something called industry from NZ.
So patience is a virtue in this case. I never believe in long-time shorting NZD as the time hasnt come out yet, but I see an opportunity that NZD is gonna have a good retracement soon to further jump higher
  • #3,626
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:11pm Mar 12, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting ARouND
{quote} Thanks, I've read the minutes but confused with this statement “Dairy sector high share of exports something to think about”. Anyone can do me a favor interpret it? Also I quit half of my shorting NZD positions and refilled'em after the talk since I still hold my view on short-term shorting NZD. Altho I rise my TP quite a bit
Dairy products are by far NZ's largest export and China their largest importer of said dairy products. Those that live there or have been there know its very agriculture-based economy. A high % of NZ's GDP is off of exporting these dairy products so if say China slows down, buys less dairy from NZ, it'll hurt. Another angle is the PBoC is set to weaken their Yuan as of late. Getting a weaker currency from their largest importer (and having a stronger NZD) will hurt exporters & GDP as well, and might get in the way of the RBNZ's projected economic forecasts.
  • #3,627
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:25pm Mar 12, 2014 5:25pm
Putin, we need you and your troops in New Zeland NOW!
  • #3,628
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:27pm Mar 12, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Dairy products are by far NZ's largest export and China their largest importer of said dairy products. Those that live there or have been there know its very agriculture-based economy. A high % of NZ's GDP is off of exporting these dairy products so if say China slows down, buys less dairy from NZ, it'll hurt. Another angle is the PBoC is set to weaken their Yuan as of late. Getting a weaker currency from their largest importer (and having a stronger NZD) will hurt exporters & GDP as well, and might get in the way of the RBNZ's projected...
Thanks a lot!
Funny thing is being a Chinese live outside for years myself and I know little about it XD. The only thing I know is we're strongly suspicious about NZ's diary product as believing they're poisoned, which should suggest a decent decrease in export on the section in near future(see what Chinese did to Jap last year... diary products are actually at the top concern of the country as we have lot's of similar events on history and the crowd can barely take it any longer ), but seems forex market do not even care anyway...
  • #3,629
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:44pm Mar 12, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting ARouND
{quote} One thing I know for certain is NZ is not Europe nor America. The economy almost all based on low-end exports and tourists, both will be severely dampened by high exchange rate. I might be ignorant but never heard something called industry from NZ. So patience is a virtue in this case. I never believe in long-time shorting NZD as the time hasnt come out yet, but I see an opportunity that NZD is gonna have a good retracement soon to further jump higher
I know that's why I said raising interest rate is going to exacerbate the too-high-of-exchange-rate problem. And RBNZ just on that account will be reluctant to raise the interest rate too much.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,630
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:45pm Mar 12, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting ARouND
{quote} Thanks a lot! Funny thing is being a Chinese live outside for years myself and I know little about it XD. The only thing I know is we're strongly suspicious about NZ's diary product as believing they're poisoned, which should suggest a decent decrease in export on the section in near future(see what Chinese did to Jap last year... diary products are actually at the top concern of the country as we have lot's of similar events on history and the crowd can barely take it any longer ), but seems forex market do not even care anyway...
I hear ya on the dairy scares. Those do affect the NZD, especially when they happen in China. Last was about a year ago, from the NZ's largest dairy, Fonterra I believe.
  • #3,631
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:50pm Mar 12, 2014 5:50pm
Quoting ArekJP
retail traders hope everyone making nice pips{image}
other half of the ride still to go..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dropzone.png Size: 10 KB
Attached Image
  • #3,632
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:25pm Mar 12, 2014 6:25pm
currently testing 12 month highs and it should break through shortly. 88 is the ultimate resistance imho with 86 a near term target
  • #3,633
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:40pm Mar 12, 2014 6:40pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} You got that right!! lol I put in a small short.. As soon as I saw that.. they didn't leave it unchanged.. I wait 15 more seconds it gapped down again.. I closed it and RAN for the hills baby! {image}
Yeah I just really wish every news gives you such a generous for you to be able to close and adjust your positions like this one. The last times I traded over 2 AUS data, the candle shot up 30+ pips in half a second, LESS than a blink of an eye. Not sure if there is anything that I could've done in 1/2 of a second if I REALLY was on the wrong side, I would've been crying.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,634
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:44pm Mar 12, 2014 6:44pm
Quoting zOrO2kX
Putin, we need you and your troops in New Zeland NOW!
lmao
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,635
  • Mar 12, 2014 7:13pm Mar 12, 2014 7:13pm
86 today itself at current rate of increase.
  • #3,636
  • Mar 12, 2014 7:49pm Mar 12, 2014 7:49pm
OMG!! There is only ONE resistence level left for NZ @ 0.863XX!! After that, it's la-la land!! LOL
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,637
  • Mar 12, 2014 7:57pm Mar 12, 2014 7:57pm
Quoting Forexia
OMG!! There is only ONE resistence level left for NZ @ 0.863XX!! After that, it's la-la land!! LOL
are you long on it? sound so excited..
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,638
  • Mar 12, 2014 8:00pm Mar 12, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} are you long on it? sound so excited..
No but just realized that it broke through another resistence level and just amazed that the price can break through so many resistence levels to the point that nobody's gonna know where it will stop. LOL

Just for today, on a "priced in" news, it broke through FOUR resistence levels already. "Priced in" my ass! Probably another dirty trick of those Big Banks so us retail traders won't bid up the price too much for them to make a profit.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,639
  • Mar 12, 2014 8:02pm Mar 12, 2014 8:02pm
Quoting Forexia
OMG!! There is only ONE resistence level left for NZ @ 0.863XX!! After that, it's la-la land!! LOL
somehow I smell a fake breakout but...
  • #3,640
  • Mar 12, 2014 8:06pm Mar 12, 2014 8:06pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} No but just realized that it broke through another resistence level and just amazed that the price can break through so many resistence levels to the point that nobody's gonna know where it will stop. LOL Just for today, on a "priced in" news, it broke through FOUR resistence levels already. "Priced in" my ass! Probably another dirty trick of those Big Banks so us retail traders won't bid up the price too much for them to make a profit.
Nothing makes sense anymore logic is out the window.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
10 traders viewing now