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NZD/USD

  • #3,601
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:30pm Mar 12, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Raising another rate so soon??? Why don't they just raise 50 bps this time if they are gonna raise another 25 bps in just like 6 weeks.
I find it so funny the NZD is acting like this rate hike was a surprise if it was already forecasted to happen. This is NEWS to us.. I can just imagine, how it would have reacted if they didn't raise it. Take the fun out of everything.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,602
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:32pm Mar 12, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Raising another rate so soon??? Why don't they just raise 50 bps this time if they are gonna raise another 25 bps in just like 6 weeks.
It might sound oldschool, but ... Because it causes too much unwanted volatility, sends wrong signals to market and above all, central banks are conservative institutions.
  • #3,603
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:32pm Mar 12, 2014 3:32pm
I really don't understand. If the rate hike was already so expected which it was since the RBNZ made it very clear then why the big reaction?..
I smell bullshit.
  • #3,604
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:33pm Mar 12, 2014 3:33pm
retail traders hope everyone making nice pips
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  • #3,605
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:35pm Mar 12, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
I really don't understand. If the rate hike was already so expected which it was since the RBNZ made it very clear then why the big reaction?.. I smell bullshit.

That is one way of putting it lol.. The markets have such short term memory..

Once New Zealand fundamentals start coming in negative. I think everyone will reassess the situation but right now.

Its a safe curruncy (considered) to park your money cause you get positive swaps.

With raising rates.. It makes it more appealing to put more money into it.

But high price.. Cannot sustain the curruncy.. Which will start altering fundamentals in the future Until that point people see it as make money opportunity.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,606
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:36pm Mar 12, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} What do you mean hurt? I dropped 30 pips.. I made money and then it went 30 pips up rofl
Where are you trading (broker)?
  • #3,607
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:37pm Mar 12, 2014 3:37pm
it may go much more higher if we break .8523-25
  • #3,608
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:38pm Mar 12, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Lmao.. People are buying in.. I don't know.. I guess looking for any movement you can find.. I jumped in with my shorts grabbed money and ran like out of a burning building Lol. Any play can be a good play as long as you know when to call or when to fold! And when we start blurring those lines then that's when we get all our money taken away lol!
LOL
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Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,609
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:38pm Mar 12, 2014 3:38pm
Quoting Jure86
{quote} Where are you trading (broker)?
ForexFS
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,610
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:39pm Mar 12, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} LOL {image}
You got that right!! lol I put in a small short.. As soon as I saw that.. they didn't leave it unchanged.. I wait 15 more seconds it gapped down again.. I closed it and RAN for the hills baby!
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There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,611
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:40pm Mar 12, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} That is one way of putting it lol.. The markets have such short term memory.. Once New Zealand fundamentals start coming in negative. I think everyone will reassess the situation but right now. Its a safe curruncy (considered) to park your money cause you get positive swaps. With raising rates.. It makes it more appealing to put more money into it. But high price.. Cannot sustain the curruncy.. Which will start altering fundamentals in the future Until that point people see it as make money opportunity.
Nicely put, I agree with you there, living in NZ myself I know how it is, the RBNZ would much rather have a lower exchange rate for our trade, the main reason being NZ trade is all we got, its the entire backbone of our economy..
  • #3,612
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:44pm Mar 12, 2014 3:44pm
Further strategy for NZDUSD is to buy 10-30 pips pullbacks that will emerge soon.
  • #3,613
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:54pm Mar 12, 2014 3:54pm
im out, made some nice pips and refuse to give them back! goodnight everyone!
  • #3,614
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:58pm Mar 12, 2014 3:58pm
Quoting ArekJP
im out, made some nice pips and refuse to give them back! goodnight everyone!
Too bad, you should hold your longs. It could be a positive surprise the next day.
  • #3,615
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:04pm Mar 12, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} Too bad, you should hold your longs. It could be a positive surprise the next day.
yeah i know i could make or lose... Im a day trader and try to not to hold any positions overnight... i don't sleep very well with open positions
  • #3,616
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:06pm Mar 12, 2014 4:06pm
Quoting ArekJP
{quote} yeah i know i could make or lose... im i day trader and try to not to hold any positions overnight... i don't sleep very well with open positions
Fair enough. Green trade is a good trade. Yet i hold average from 0,8290 and have TPs scattered few 10 or 100 pips higher. Good luck!
  • #3,617
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:09pm Mar 12, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Nicely put, I agree with you there, living in NZ myself I know how it is, the RBNZ would much rather have a lower exchange rate for our trade, the main reason being NZ trade is all we got, its the entire backbone of our economy..
Well according to their last meeting minutes, they actually want a high NZD as the high exchange rate would keep the import prices cheap and keep the inflation in two so they wouldn't have to raise the rate so much risking dampening the economy too much.

Since you live in NZ, I have a question for ya. My broker stops trading in NZD for like 15 min. each day at 1:00 PM claiming that this is some kind of trading regulations/law in New Zealand. Is that true? Is there some kind of rules and laws that stops the market for 15 min. in New Zealand?

Thanks.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,618
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:17pm Mar 12, 2014 4:17pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} Fair enough. Green trade is a good trade. Yet i hold average from 0,8290 and have TPs scattered few 10 or 100 pips higher. Good luck!
yeah, i see your point - you are more of position trader, therefore your approach is much different to mine as a day trader. Any way, good luck and all the best!
  • #3,619
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:22pm Mar 12, 2014 4:22pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Well according to their last meeting minutes, they actually want a high NZD as the high exchange rate would keep the import prices cheap and keep the inflation in two so they wouldn't have to raise the rate so much risking dampening the economy too much. Since you live in NZ, I have a question for ya. My broker stops trading in NZD for like 15 min. each day at 1:00 PM claiming that this is some kind of trading regulations/law in New Zealand. Is that true? Is there some kind of rules and laws that stops the market for 15 min. in New Zealand?...
Hm I suppose you got me on that one pretty good! Although I have to say, having the NZD high isn't sustainable for our economy when it comes to our exports sector.
Which broker is that? I've never heard of such a thing nor experienced anything like that? Sounds fishy..
  • #3,620
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:36pm Mar 12, 2014 4:36pm
RBNZ HEADLINES (vis Order Flow News):

  1. Speed of rate rises will depend of data, inflation.
  2. Moderation in housing market.
  3. Says high NZ Dollar remains a headwind, NZD level not sustainable in long term.
  4. Annual CPI 1.9% by year end, seen rising to 2.1% by early 2016.
  5. GDP growth seen peaking at 3.5% in 2015
  6. Export demand may weaken if China sees financial disruption
  7. RBNZ Asst. Gov McDermott: Neutral Rates Remain around 4.5%
  8. RBNZ Gov Wheeler in press conference:

    1. "Fair to say will see further rate increases over the next few months"
    2. "Most institutional investors are anticipating this sort of tightening, so therefore we're not expecting to see significant exchange rate increases as a result,"
    3. “Dairy sector high share of exports something to think about”
    4. “Opportunities for forex intervention low.”

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