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NZD/USD

  • #3,561
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:45pm Mar 12, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} I don't know about AUD/NZD Nor its correlated effects with AUD/USD I know that NZD/USD -- If they do raise interest rates its already priced in.. No surprise.. old news we knew it was going to happen awesome. if they don't raise it this round, and it could happen.. It used to happen all the time! NZD/USD will Plunge down (its a surprise) didn't see that coming. Better YET if they CUT the rates ( hasn't happend in a while ) Then that's where the real fireworks come out. Fun things havn't been happening, but they MAY not raise interest rates...
I don't think it will CUT the rate as they already stated in their last minutes that they already believed that the GDP growth is self-sustaining and don't really need any stimulus from an accomodative monetary policy plus they are facing a housing inflation rate of 18% due to the rebuilding efforts in Cantebury and the net in migration. The most they will do is leave the rate unchanged to give the economy still a break and downplaying the inflation as it has more to do with the rebuilding efforts. I mean if you take the rebuilding efforts out of the equation, is the inflation REALLY 18%? The inflation in the rest of the areas is not that bad.

So they MIGHT leave the rate unchanged this round and raise it in their next period which is really only 1 month away. And if they do raise in April, it still won't be too late to curb a potentially overheating economy over the summer.
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  • #3,562
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:46pm Mar 12, 2014 2:46pm
Well, I've been short NZD/CAD and NZD/JPY and long GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD for a while, so this might be a nice catalyst. Sure looks like an NZD drop across the board, though it could come after another spike. And of course, whenever I post on these boards, I jinx myself. Ha ha.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #3,563
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:46pm Mar 12, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} I don't think it will CUT the rate as they already stated in their last minutes that they already believed that the GDP growth is self-sustaining and don't really need any stimulus from an accomodative monetary policy plus they are facing a housing inflation rate of 18% due to the rebuilding efforts in Cantebury and the net in migration. The most they will do is leave the rate unchanged to give the economy still a break and downplaying the inflation as it has more to do with the rebuilding efforts. I mean if you take the rebuilding efforts...
Very good!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,564
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:47pm Mar 12, 2014 2:47pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} I took a small short now.. and if they do come out unchanged -- I'll take another short.
Wooo gutsy, gutsy...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,565
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:48pm Mar 12, 2014 2:48pm
If you will trade RBNZ announcement ... just don't go short, it may hurt ... inflows suggest raise is practically a certainty, yet retail opened a lot of short positions in recent 1H. This may trigger +100 pips up or more in matter of few hours.

My recommendation: Whatever you do, don't short NZDUSD in next 2-3 hours.
  • #3,566
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:49pm Mar 12, 2014 2:49pm
Quoting Spik
If you will trade RBNZ announcement ... just don't go short, it may hurt ... inflows suggest raise is practically a certainty, yet retail opened a lot of short positions in recent 1H. This may trigger +100 pips up or more in matter of few hours. My recommendation: Whatever you do, don't short NZDUSD in next 2-3 hours.
Too late! lol will see in 11 mins!! TUM TUM TUMMMMMMMMM
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,567
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:51pm Mar 12, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting Spik
If you will trade RBNZ announcement ... just don't go short, it may hurt ... inflows suggest raise is practically a certainty, yet retail opened a lot of short positions in recent 1H. This may trigger +100 pips up or more in matter of few hours. My recommendation: Whatever you do, don't short NZDUSD in next 2-3 hours.
Yeah I am thinking of putting a small short position as well. But I am not sure if I have the guts to pull the trigger though.

7 minutes and counting...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,568
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:52pm Mar 12, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Yeah I am thinking of putting a small short position as well. But I am not sure if I have the guts to pull the trigger though. 7 minutes and counting...
DO IT PULL THE TRIGGER DO IT NOW!!! lol

NO GUTS NO GLORY>> NO GLORY NO GUTS lol
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,569
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:54pm Mar 12, 2014 2:54pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} DO IT PULL THE TRIGGER DO IT NOW!!! lol NO GUTS NO GLORY>> NO GLORY NO GUTS lol
If I do it, you responsible for my loss?? LOL

C'mon, I am only taking a small position, the loss will be 30 pips. LOL
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,570
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:55pm Mar 12, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Yeah I am thinking of putting a small short position as well. But I am not sure if I have the guts to pull the trigger though. 7 minutes and counting...
Put a small long then if you can't resist passing the announcement aside. I'd say risk/reward is about 3:1 in favour of long.
  • #3,571
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:55pm Mar 12, 2014 2:55pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} If I do it, you responsible for my loss?? LOL
as long as I get a share of the profits lol
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,572
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:56pm Mar 12, 2014 2:56pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} Put a small long then if you can't resist passing the announcement aside. I'd say risk/reward is about 3:1 in favour of long.
no way!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,573
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:56pm Mar 12, 2014 2:56pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} as long as I get a share of the profits lol
OK fine. You are only responsible for $100 of my loss so if you are sharing the profit, you are only sharing $100 too. NOT 100 pips, $100!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,574
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:01pm Mar 12, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} OK fine. You are only responsible for $100 of my loss so if you are sharing the profit, you are only sharing $100 too. NOT 100 pips, $100!
we were wrong but its still shorting ROFL!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,575
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:02pm Mar 12, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} OK fine. You are only responsible for $100 of my loss so if you are sharing the profit, you are only sharing $100 too. NOT 100 pips, $100!
we were wrong but its still shorting ROFL!

I'm out.. Grabbed some pips. I happy! lol
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,576
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:02pm Mar 12, 2014 3:02pm
NZD – RBNZ raises rates 25bps to 2.75% as expected
  • #3,577
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:02pm Mar 12, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
NZD – RBNZ raises rates 25bps to 2.75% as expected
Eh they suck!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,578
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:03pm Mar 12, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} we were wrong but its still shorting ROFL! I'm out.. Grabbed some pips. I happy! lol
Awesome!!! Good for you!!! I should've pulled the trigger though, there were pips there. Guess we weren't the only ones shorting or thinking of shorting.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,579
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:03pm Mar 12, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} Put a small long then if you can't resist passing the announcement aside. I'd say risk/reward is about 3:1 in favour of long.
you were saying something about 3:1 -- 100 pips lol.. Its already priced in!

Ohh we got some action to the top side too everyone wins lol
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,580
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:04pm Mar 12, 2014 3:04pm
OMG!!! Stopped DEAD at 0.850000 and turned right around. Gotta love those trading computers.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
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