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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #11,881
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:02am Mar 12, 2014 6:02am
Quoting Noob Trader
Free fall awaiting... if last low broken around 168.xx... Downside is as crazy as 160. All eyes on Ukraine and Russian behavior.
Noobtrader, would you claim this is the major expectation of market participants? Add: (no offending here)
  • #11,882
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:12am Mar 12, 2014 6:12am
Quoting Noob Trader
Free fall awaiting... if last low broken around 168.xx... Downside is as crazy as 160. All eyes on Ukraine and Russian behavior.
Correct. Standing by. Unless it gets held up at 170 at the last moment,
  • #11,883
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:13am Mar 12, 2014 6:13am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Noobtrader, would you claim this is the major expectation of market participants?
No I don't think. I will give you my understanding of this.

As soon as the price hits 169.60/20 level, unless there is some war break-out, the buyers will be back in control and the price will tend to reverse, especially with BoJ not doing much at the min and sales tax increase by the end of month. It should be going in other direction but to know till when and how much it is going to bounce is the critical thinking point and that is where I still looking for the key.

PS Add: I have found the DOOR just looking out for the KEY now, probably will need the key maker from MATRIX!!
  • #11,884
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:16am Mar 12, 2014 6:16am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Noobtrader, would you claim this is the major expectation of market participants?
Ukraine crisis has potential to turn into ugly mess. I am not sure if I am reading the charts but major indexes giving feeling of some sort of sell off is coming. Not sure if Ukraine would be focal point of sell off. I am betting more pain in stocks but since Dow & GBPJPY do have some co-relation, JPY will feel the heat of any sell off in the mkt. GBP which was super bullish few days back now sideways with risk to downside while JPY is on support, fail in support will invite more and more. For me GBP & JPY both in pain which make GBPJPY double pain.

Mkt running like mad elephant, discounting any bad news is not good sign for sustain mkt. Dow Jones below 16170 sustain will confirm further downside pressure in coming days. Dow CMP 16297
  • #11,885
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:21am Mar 12, 2014 6:21am
I find no flow data suggesting either way for GJ. Technical support runs out just below here.
  • #11,886
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:23am Mar 12, 2014 6:23am
Quoting Noob Trader
{quote} Ukraine crisis has potential to turn into ugly mess. I am not sure if I am reading the charts but major indexes giving feeling of some sort of sell off is coming. Not sure if Ukraine would be focal point of sell off. I am betting more pain in stocks but since Dow & GBPJPY do have some co-relation, JPY will feel the heat of any sell off in the mkt. GBP which was super bullish few days back now sideways with risk to downside while JPY is on support, fail in support will invite more and more. For me GBP & JPY both in pain which make GBPJPY...
Exactly, look the major expectation is down and it might go even down further, all is indicating in that direction, no doubt here and those circumstances are exactly those where I´d like to buy it up at a cheaper price. This Ukraine crisis will come to an end, definitely. Shorter term trader focusing on that drop and are still short/waiting got an entry in the near future, longer term traders wait to dip hard and buy it up. Whatever happend, doesnt matter, just want to make clear how market sentiment looks like and to see the potential of both sides.
  • #11,887
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:24am Mar 12, 2014 6:24am
noone thinking about buying on dip?
  • #11,888
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:27am Mar 12, 2014 6:27am
Quoting FX-Ray
E/J still in 142.60/40 -> actual 142.48 G/J below 170.80/60 -> actual 170.46 Scenario 1: E/J maintain above 142.40; G/J gonna follow back into 170.80/60 => upside (next: 172.00/71.80) Scenario 2: E/J cant maintain inbetween 142.60/40 and gonna follow G/J => downside (next: 169.40/20)
E/J back into 142.60/40; depending if E/J follow G/J or vice versa.
  • #11,889
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:27am Mar 12, 2014 6:27am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Exactly, look the major expectation is down and it might go even down further, all is indicating in that direction, no doubt here and those circumstances are exactly those where I´d like to buy it up at a cheaper price. This Ukraine crisis will come to an end, definitely. Shorter term trader focusing on that drop and are still short/waiting got an entry in the near future, longer term traders wait to dip hard and buy it up. Whatever happend, doesnt matter, just want to make clear how market sentiment looks like and to see the potential of...
People wanting to buy on every dip, but we are not sure what would be the exact dip, but at present Top seems to be known, so message is clear for me.
  • #11,890
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:29am Mar 12, 2014 6:29am
Quoting Noob Trader
{quote} People wanting to buy on every dip, but we are not sure what would be the exact dip, but at present Top seems to be known, so message is clear for me.
gl
  • #11,891
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:38am Mar 12, 2014 6:38am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} gl
Thanks, but will keep close watch on your levels as well
  • #11,892
  • Mar 12, 2014 7:07am Mar 12, 2014 7:07am
I reached TP for my short @ 170.18. Next level I'm watching is 169.22.

This small retrace could end at any time, so paying close attention to re-enter shorts. On the upside, a retrace to 171.08 is also possible but less probable in my opinion.
  • #11,893
  • Mar 12, 2014 7:10am Mar 12, 2014 7:10am
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} Done ... and A REVERSO with LONG positions to the upside again ... since 170.510 has been taken ... ;-| {image}

Quoting mercy seat
{quote} Done ... and A REVERSO with LONG positions to the upside again ... since 170.510 has been taken ... ;-| {image}

GBP/JPY :


Currently we are running LONG mode with avg 170.2539 ... since 170.200 - 170.175 has been taken (BID) ...

That's been done in the time between 11h51 CET and 12h00 CET ...

You know where the are the critical points ... no need to talk about ... as we did already ...

We are trying it this way ... as shown here ... Attachment ... with preliminary limit orders ... besides from our HFT manual order series ...

I'm in a hurry ... and I've got not much time ... thanx ... bye bye ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #11,894
  • Mar 12, 2014 7:14am Mar 12, 2014 7:14am
Minor decision Point @ 170.50/40
  • #11,895
  • Mar 12, 2014 7:24am Mar 12, 2014 7:24am
Quoting FX-Ray
E/J still in 142.60/40 -> actual 142.48 G/J below 170.80/60 -> actual 170.46 Scenario 1: E/J maintain above 142.40; G/J gonna follow back into 170.80/60 => upside (next: 172.00/71.80) Scenario 2: E/J cant maintain inbetween 142.60/40 and gonna follow G/J => downside (next: 169.40/20)
E/J above 142.60/40;
G/J inbetween 170.80/60; stops above 80ish

If G/J finds demand @ 170.80/60 it bottomed out here (check weekly).

Off my desk, laters
  • #11,896
  • Mar 12, 2014 8:01am Mar 12, 2014 8:01am
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} GBP/JPY : Currently we are running LONG mode with avg 170.2539 ... since 170.200 - 170.175 has been taken (BID) ... That's been done in the time between 11h51 CET and 12h00 CET ... You know where there are the critical points ... no need to talk about ... as we did already ... We are trying it this way ... as shown with preliminary limit orders ... besides from HFT manual order series ... I'm in a hurry ... got not much time ... thanx ... bye bye ... ;-| {image}


GBP/JPY :


Partial profits and position squaring in consideration as shown there ... Attachment

Some EXITS planned in 170.63 zone ... other ones will follow manually without any further note ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #11,897
  • Mar 12, 2014 9:09am Mar 12, 2014 9:09am
Long position auto acquired at 170.8.

Levels for Long: 170.8, 171.9/172.00, 173.6, 174.8/175
Levels for Short: 170, 169.4, 168.8, 168.25

Personal Bias: Towards 172ish, pullback around that area, preferably towards 171.5/6, and then test of recent high at 173.6. We might see 174.8 by Friday or early next week (but this is still a long way, take each step at a time).

Good luck all.
  • #11,898
  • Mar 12, 2014 9:42am Mar 12, 2014 9:42am
crazy day, I have to say
  • #11,899
  • Mar 12, 2014 10:15am Mar 12, 2014 10:15am
Quoting jimi
noone thinking about buying on dip?
seems only me
  • #11,900
  • Mar 12, 2014 10:32am Mar 12, 2014 10:32am
102.84 is crucial on U/J.
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