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NZD/USD

  • #3,541
  • Mar 11, 2014 11:03pm Mar 11, 2014 11:03pm
Quoting zew
{quote} AUDNZD can be below 1.05?
Yep. August was when the RBA adopted the "Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed" easing stance when it cut rates 25bps. Banks started pricing in another rate cut in 2014 around October, then RBNZ's Wheeler, in December, outlined a plan to start raising NZ rates. The divergence in monetary policy outlooks sent the Aud/Nzd to multi-year lows, where we're chilling today.

Now, the RBA hasn't cut rates, and since February changed their MPS from:
Quote
"..the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target."
to:
Quote
"In the Board's judgement, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.
The RBNZ hasnt risen rates yet either. Action is wait to be seen. No cuts from the RBA & No raises by the RBNZ are the opposite reason of why large traders have been flowing $$ from AUD to NZD.

So if projections remain, Aud/Nzd parity is in the picture. If RBNZ hikes rates less than what the market had been planning on (something like +275bps within 2yrs) we could see a big retrace as well. Wheeler needs to start on those hikes TOMORROW!!
  • #3,542
  • Mar 12, 2014 3:58am Mar 12, 2014 3:58am
  •  Noeliu
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Hit SL?? Clicked the wrong button | 51 Posts
My 2 cents on today expectations
The NZDUSD data is on minute 14th and some seconds on

Inserted Video


Take care everybody!
  • #3,543
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:42am Mar 12, 2014 5:42am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Yep. August was when the RBA adopted the "Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed" easing stance when it cut rates 25bps. Banks started pricing in another rate cut in 2014 around October, then RBNZ's Wheeler, in December, outlined a plan to start raising NZ rates. The divergence in monetary policy outlooks sent the Aud/Nzd to multi-year lows, where we're chilling today. Now, the RBA hasn't cut rates, and since February changed their MPS from: {quote} to: {quote} The RBNZ hasnt risen rates yet either. Action...

hi EmeraldEyes, so whats the conclusion? i m confused about what have you told us. will nzdusd raise? or will go down?
  • #3,544
  • Mar 12, 2014 10:24am Mar 12, 2014 10:24am
Good morning everyone. Hows everyone doing on this lovely day?
  • #3,545
  • Mar 12, 2014 11:05am Mar 12, 2014 11:05am
Quoting Rizmeister
Good morning everyone. Hows everyone doing on this lovely day?
Lost some pips on UC. Gained some pips on UCHF, not enough though to cover the losses on UC. Currently Short in UC in pursuit of lost pips. Hoping the bulls in NZ will drag the bulls in AU with it and in turn drag the bears in UC.

You?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,546
  • Mar 12, 2014 12:45pm Mar 12, 2014 12:45pm
Quoting xetrader
{quote} hi EmeraldEyes, so whats the conclusion? i m confused about what have you told us. will nzdusd raise? or will go down?
xetrader you should learn how to trade to be successful
  • #3,547
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:01pm Mar 12, 2014 2:01pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Lost some pips on UC. Gained some pips on UCHF, not enough though to cover the losses on UC. Currently Short in UC in pursuit of lost pips. Hoping the bulls in NZ will drag the bulls in AU with it and in turn drag the bears in UC. You?
Hope is not a valid strategy!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,548
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:04pm Mar 12, 2014 2:04pm
So Interest rates come out Unchanged lets say or even instead of they do a cut.. Haven't had one of this types of scenarios in a while. The market is going to fall down faster then 10 elephants on a floating feather lol
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,549
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:12pm Mar 12, 2014 2:12pm
Are you guys excited? I'm super excited!
  • #3,550
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:13pm Mar 12, 2014 2:13pm
Quoting palabara
So Interest rates come out Unchanged lets say or even instead of they do a cut.. Haven't had one of this types of scenarios in a while. The market is going to fall down faster then 10 elephants on a floating feather lol
RBNZ will raise it almost without doubt, plus possibly announce further raises.

I expect it to propel NZDUSD some 70-80 pips up and AUDUSD some 100 pips up.
  • #3,551
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:16pm Mar 12, 2014 2:16pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} RBNZ will raise it almost without doubt, plus possibly announce further raises. I expect it to propel NZDUSD some 70-80 pips up and AUDUSD some 100 pips up.
So by logic AUD/NZD will stay the same or go up a bit more. Interesting theory
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #3,552
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:19pm Mar 12, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} RBNZ will raise it almost without doubt, plus possibly announce further raises. I expect it to propel NZDUSD some 70-80 pips up and AUDUSD some 100 pips up.
I don't know.. Lets say.. they do raise it.. It's already priced in.. It won't be a surprise.. But if they don't raise it now that's a surprise! I don't know if they'll raise it or not.. I think they've made hints on it, but it doesn't mean they'll do it this round. They might wait for next time.

To further add on it, even if they do raise it.. Won't affect AUD that severely even if it will tweak it in a certain direction. If this was a surprise MAYBE, but doubtfully.

If they predict rates will go up, then market already starts playing on it as it already did from the first hint.. so when it does happen its old news.. When its unexpected.. That's when you get the reaction!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,553
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:23pm Mar 12, 2014 2:23pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} I don't know.. Lets say.. they do raise it.. It's already priced in.. It won't be a surprise.. But if they don't raise it now that's a surprise! I don't know if they'll raise it or not.. I think they've made hints on it, but it doesn't mean they'll do it this round. They might wait for next time.
How is it that an increase in carry will NOT create new flows?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #3,554
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:25pm Mar 12, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} How is it that an increase in carry will NOT create new flows?
Not saying it won't create new flows, but at the same time.. Won't get a knee jerk reaction Its will do what it does.. Its already priced in everyone is already in that boat.. You still have the risk of High curruncy = Bad economics = We don't want to put all our money into one basket.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,555
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:27pm Mar 12, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Not saying it won't create new flows, but at the same time.. Won't get a knee jerk reaction Its will do what it does.. Its already priced in everyone is already in that boat.. You still have the risk of High curruncy = Bad economics = We don't want to put all our money into one basket.

I don't know man. I think you guys are wrong with this.

I wager that NZD raises rates pushes AUD/NZD to Parity and and pushes AUD/USD further downwards.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #3,556
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:29pm Mar 12, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Hope is not a valid strategy!
Well in this case it was. Made some pips in UC, I am happy!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,557
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:30pm Mar 12, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I don't know man. I think you guys are wrong with this. I wager that NZD raises rates pushes AUD/NZD to Parity and and pushes AUD/USD further downwards.
I don't know about AUD/NZD

Nor its correlated effects with AUD/USD

I know that NZD/USD -- If they do raise interest rates its already priced in.. No surprise.. old news we knew it was going to happen awesome.

if they don't raise it this round, and it could happen.. It used to happen all the time! NZD/USD will Plunge down (its a surprise) didn't see that coming.

Better YET if they CUT the rates ( hasn't happend in a while ) Then that's where the real fireworks come out.

Fun things havn't been happening, but they MAY not raise interest rates this round, and wait till next time do it!! Not saying they will or won't but saying they MAY. Its a possiblity that cannot be excluded.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,558
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:38pm Mar 12, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I don't know man. I think you guys are wrong with this. I wager that NZD raises rates pushes AUD/NZD to Parity and and pushes AUD/USD further downwards.
All these talks is so making me wanna put in a position right before the announcement... And I am tempted to put in a short. Since the rate-rise is already priced in, if the rate does rises, it's not gonna create much flare but might jack up the price to 85. BUT if the rate is NOT going to rise, then you are going to see a s***storm pushing the price ALL the way down to maybe 835x for the next few days. So from a risk/reward ratio point of view, it's not a bad proposition. And I can see I am not the only one who's thinking that. The price's been dropping the more it gets close to the announcement time.

20 min. to go...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,559
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:40pm Mar 12, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} All these talks is so making me wanna put in a position right before the announcement... And I am tempted to put in a short. Since the rate-rise is already priced in, if the rate does rises, it's not gonna create much flare but might jack up the price to 85. BUT if the rate is NOT going to rise, then you are going to see a s***storm pushing the price ALL the way down to maybe 835x for the next few days. So from a risk/reward ratio point of view, it's not a bad proposition. And I can see I am not the only one who's thinking that....
Lol one who is not in Denial!
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,560
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:44pm Mar 12, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Lol one who is not in Denial!
I took a small short now.. and if they do come out unchanged -- I'll take another short.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
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