Sultans of Swing

Gold: update (from here)

Pattern failed

I still maintain my bearish outlook on gold, timing pivots can be +/- 4 bars, therefore, I advise against buying this instrument... I also dont recommend shorting it just yet, no point picking tops... short on a lower high after the breakdown (late March/early April)

If you have been holding longs for a few weeks (like myself), its a good time to lock up profits and get out...

I will post updated charts soon

hi, do you have any thought about sp500?

i mean, we topped or this is only correction?

IMO is a correction.

thank you so much

I am buying dips

heres my last post: link

you can chase the trail of updates back and see the next timing pivot (late April on weekly, early April on daily)

targets adjusted to the lower/mid 1900's

Price Relativism: update (from here)

BTFD (soon)

Euro Yen vs S&P 500 Futures (continuous)

H4

General Custer is being a stubborn bugger!

Holding on to that line, and beating back Sitting Bull... he has certainly won the day

but, we all know how this story ends, the script has already been written...

I will post updated charts over the weekend

good luck!

i'm not so sure we bottomed yet.....

maybe one more leg to south

IMO

there are some interesting observations about gold on his blog, this is a snip from something he published on friday...

Hedge Fund Short Covering in Gold is the Story
full article: http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com...n-gold-is.html

This story simply will not die as it keep happening - hedge funds continue to cover short positions to an extent far surpassing the amount of fresh, new buying that they are doing.
Last week they covered ( closed out) 4,675 short positions. This week they outdid themselves as they covered a whopping 5,248 shorts made up of both futures and option positions! On the long side, they actually reduced their exposure by some 482 contracts. It is too bad that we cannot see what occurred from Wednesday through Friday. My view is that today's strong rally through overhead chart resistance further cleaned out some more of their short positions in a big way.
Let's again put this in perspective - at the start of this year, the hedgies were sitting with a total of 72,571 outright short positions, futures and options combined. As of this past Tuesday, that number has shrunk to a mere 21,073 or a reduction of 51,498 shorts.
Over this same period, the number of outright longs has increased from 106,675 to its current number of 144,080, for an increase of 37,405 futures and options positions.
Again, the clear driver for gold this year has thus far been short covering as the dominant feature among the biggest specs on the planet.

things that make you go "hmm" (aka: wag the dog)

via forexlive.com:
China to winden yuan trading band
17 hours ago | March 15th, 2014 19:38:55 GMT by
China’s slow grind toward a market-based economy continues with an announcement on Saturday that China will widen the yuan trading band to 2% on either side of the daily reference rate from 1%. The band had previously been widened in 2007 and 2012.
I don’t expect this to have an impact on markets on Monday but it’s a sign that it won’t be too long before FX traders have CNY on their screens.

Chinese Yuan vs Gold
Weekly

Chinese Yuan:
overextended?

H4

Weekly

Ukraine and Russia agree truce as Crimea votes in referendum
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...mea-referendum

Maybe not, but we are certainly at a critical juncture... if we go much lower, it may change the bullish outlook in a material way

I am building long positions at the current levels, with a tight stop in case we get an unexpected jolt...

from a timing perspective, i remain bullish until mid next month, unless I am proven wrong! (hope not)

... a few weeks old, but very relevant, and a highly recommended read...

The New New Great Game: Geography, Energy, The Dollar And Gold

article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...ollar-and-gold
full pdf: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...eat%20Game.pdf

Gidday DHT

Big question will EUR/US bust through 140 or not

Everyone will close there longs an it will fly through the roof.

its a widely debated subject...

I think the euro has some legs here, it may break that level, but whether or not it holds is the big question mark... lots of big banks are putting sell recommendations on this currency, with a target down to the low 1.20's... so far they are all suffering from foot-in-mouth syndrome, but i guess that can change if Draghi decides that the inflation target will be missed by a margin wide enough to warrant stimulus...

its the big question on everyone's mind... I dont know the answer, but I cannot fight the trend and get in short when I see no evidence...

Dollar Yen: followup (from here)
BTFD (if we ever get there)

Daily

another big correction.... market is SO NERVOUS...

AAAH

my old thread...
how i missed thee!

hopefully i'll be posting here again!

What George Soros Taught Stan Druckenmiller
"
George Soros has a philosophy that I have also adopted: The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs. You can be far more aggressive when you’re making good profits. Many managers, once they’re up 30 or 40 percent, will book their year [i.e., trade very cautiously for the remainder of the year so as not to jeopardize the very good return that has already been realized]. The way to attain tmly superior long-term returns is to grind it out until you’re up 30 or 40 percent, and then if you have the convictions, go for a 100 percent year. If you can put together a few near-100 percent years and avoid down years, then you can achieve really outstanding long-term returns.
I’ve learned many things from him, but perhaps the most significant is that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. The few times that Soros has ever criticized me was when I was really right on a market and didn’t maximize the opportunity. As an example, shortly after I had started working for Soros, I was very bearish on the dollar and put on a large short position against the Deutsche mark. The position had started going in my favor, and I felt rather proud of myself. Soros came into my office, and we talked about the trade.
"
link to original post: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2014/0...druckenmiller/

S&P 500: ACHTUNG BABY!

testing LOOONG term support...

Daily


That "other" line is another 130 points south of here...