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  • #861
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:01pm Mar 11, 2014 2:01pm
Yea. 91-92 zone is good for long.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #862
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:05pm Mar 11, 2014 2:05pm
Quoting kinspk
Yea. 91-92 zone is good for long.
Why?
  • #863
  • Mar 11, 2014 5:52pm Mar 11, 2014 5:52pm
Recently went long. I don't think the price will dip below the 50 fib level of the recent impulse (hourly chart), even though it's a first wave (of a third). This level is also a major support level during the correction on the daily chart.
It'll be alright on the night
  • #864
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:10pm Mar 11, 2014 7:10pm
where is the 50 fib level? given the sour macro out of china at present i am favouring shorting the AUD. always like to hear others thoughts and strategies however esp as i am not much of technical trader
  • #865
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:29pm Mar 11, 2014 7:29pm
It's at 92.249. However i'm re-thinking my trade because the price has broken through (though not much, which to be fair is normal behaviour, you rarely get spot on hits at fib levels) and this prompted me to do my Elliott wave count more closely, because this was previously a strong support level when looking at market structure. This could go down to the 61.8 level at 91.727 or further.

I keep aware of the fundamentals but don't really use them to inform my trading. I find that any interpretation can be applied to the fundamentals. Elliott wave is my main tool, and i believe the fundies operate within it's context of mass crowd psychology.
It'll be alright on the night
  • #866
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:38pm Mar 11, 2014 7:38pm
hope it pans out ok, pls update on your trade. i used to actively trade the aud/jpy. its a good pair if you live in australia as the time zone for each one is active when i am awake.

fundamentals certainly have a mass crowd mentality as do markets in general. i learn the hard way about trying to stand in from of the charging herd. if i disagree with the crowd i tend to stay out of the market.
i use charts to look at entry and exit based on support and resistance levels. general things like moving averages, rsi etc. i monitor fundamentals closely because i don't really tend to flit around on each side of a trade and trade daily to weekly. i think longer time frames lend themselves more to taking a macro view. i get a bit weary of endless arguing between technicals vs fundamentals, each have their merits, strengths and weakness. best to keep an open mind
  • #867
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:04pm Mar 11, 2014 8:04pm
I like the fundies because they are interesting. It's good to know how the world works. You say you 'used' to actively trade this pair, does that mean you trade less in general now, or just this pair?
It'll be alright on the night
  • #868
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:21pm Mar 11, 2014 8:21pm
i am a base metals trader by profession but i also trade fx and commodities for myself. issue being that i have a young family and money is tight so my trading activity depends on what is sitting in the account - lately not much........
the aud / jpy used to be an excellent proxy to trade the metals as it would rally when the metals were up and sell off when it was risk off. then the relationship sort of broke down and i struggled to get a clear handle on the AUD direction. sat high for ages despite the metals tanking.

i have been hammered badly trading the yen due to the volatility. currently i tend to trade aud/usd and comex copper.
when i get a bit more cash into the account i will get back onto the aud/jpy again. euro/jpy often a good ride too
  • #869
  • Mar 11, 2014 10:12pm Mar 11, 2014 10:12pm
Quoting suchpips
{quote} Why?
Market structure.There's a box of daily range where it built up the bulls. So it's good to long on correction if mid term bull still exist. If bears had took over and consider now a reversal, there will at least a retracement of 60 to 180 pips short term long on a downtrend. Anyway, I trade on flexibility of scalping to longer timeframe. So dont take my opinion if it doesnt suits you.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #870
  • Mar 12, 2014 1:14am Mar 12, 2014 1:14am
Quoting Gaviscon3
It's at 92.249. However i'm re-thinking my trade because the price has broken through (though not much, which to be fair is normal behaviour, you rarely get spot on hits at fib levels) and this prompted me to do my Elliott wave count more closely, because this was previously a strong support level when looking at market structure. This could go down to the 61.8 level at 91.727 or further. I keep aware of the fundamentals but don't really use them to inform my trading. I find that any interpretation can be applied to the fundamentals. Elliott wave...
seems to be holding this level 92.25 level
  • #871
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:55am Mar 12, 2014 5:55am
So far got down to 91.65. I stuck with my long trade and got stopped out. Put on a tight one after my previous comment. First wave correction (of a third), 61.8 is the most common level - i was seduced by that structural support. Good support at 61.8 too though - no wonder lol. I think i was victim here to my eagerness to trade. I'm fairly new to the trading game - patience is something i need to work on.

Anyway the outlook is still long. Looking like an interesting pair after looking at Eur/Usd for 10 days or so. Funny the amount of people complaining about its lack of movement.
It'll be alright on the night
  • #872
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:09am Mar 12, 2014 6:09am
copper had a terrible london open, gapped down aggressively.
i was shorting the aud / usd. little jobbing trades 35 pips and then another for 15.

anyway you stuck with your plan and you cut.
that is really the key.
  • #873
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:22am Mar 12, 2014 6:22am
Quoting Gaviscon3
So far got down to 91.65. I stuck with my long trade and got stopped out. Put on a tight one after my previous comment. First wave correction (of a third), 61.8 is the most common level - i was seduced by that structural support. Good support at 61.8 too though - no wonder lol. I think i was victim here to my eagerness to trade. I'm fairly new to the trading game - patience is something i need to work on. Anyway the outlook is still long. Looking like an interesting pair after looking at Eur/Usd for 10 days or so. Funny the amount of people complaining...

Sometime our eagerness causes some losses for us, but anyway every human tend to do it too. Look at myself, was talking about zone 91 to 92, I got in with my itch fingers at 92.22. Feel like slapping myself.

Good luck all.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #874
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:06pm Mar 12, 2014 6:06pm
Feel like slapping myself as well. I'm now bearish
It'll be alright on the night
  • #875
  • Mar 12, 2014 7:23pm Mar 12, 2014 7:23pm
Nice strong reversal bar on the daily chart. I just bought @ 92.52 with a stop @ 91.65.
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  • #876
  • Edited 9:49am Mar 13, 2014 9:10am | Edited 9:49am
Major battle at 93.37 from previous resistance and now we have Fib confluence as well. A close above this level on 4H and we may see the next leg up to 93.7 area. I am taking my chances that this resistance holds and am shorting at 93.37 with TP @ 92.89. Only giving this trade a little breathing room with SL @ 93.5

Green pips to all, time for some sleep
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #877
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:57am Mar 13, 2014 9:57am
Update: Manual bailout at 93.00

37 quick greenies, wow, that 93.37 confluence resistance zone was like a sledgehammer coming down with full force.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #878
  • Mar 14, 2014 5:05am Mar 14, 2014 5:05am
Looks like a solid confluence support zone established heading into the weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #879
  • Mar 18, 2014 2:11pm Mar 18, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting Expo33
Looks like a solid confluence support zone established heading into the weekend. {image}
Good Call
  • #880
  • Mar 19, 2014 3:25am Mar 19, 2014 3:25am
Anyone else taking little longer trade on audjpy?
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