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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #130,181
  • Mar 9, 2014 6:51pm Mar 9, 2014 6:51pm
Two day DBLHC breakout. Plan for this trade is if price breaks the 8300 line i wouldnt want to see it go below the 8280 mark. Target is the 8400 line as that was a major PPZ.
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  • #130,182
  • Mar 10, 2014 1:20am Mar 10, 2014 1:20am
Quoting albus999
Two day DBLHC breakout. Plan for this trade is if price breaks the 8300 line i wouldnt want to see it go below the 8280 mark. Target is the 8400 line as that was a major PPZ. {image}
With you in this one. But entered on the break of almost DBLHC. (1 bar earlier)
If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #130,183
  • Mar 10, 2014 1:32am Mar 10, 2014 1:32am
Quoting Magestic
{quote} With you in this one. But entered on the break of almost DBLHC. (1 bar earlier)
Hey guys. Obviously, you two have much more experience than I do, but isn't that trade going against the main trend, going into traffic, and also quickly heading into a S/R level at 0.8350? That trade seems to have a great deal going against it. Where am I going wrong? Not criticizing. I just want to learn.
Forex is for the lifestyle.
  • #130,184
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:12am Mar 10, 2014 2:12am
Quoting Tail Gunner
{quote} Hey guys. Obviously, you two have much more experience than I do, but isn't that trade going against the main trend, going into traffic, and also quickly heading into a S/R level at 0.8350? That trade seems to have a great deal going against it. Where am I going wrong? Not criticizing. I just want to learn.
Yes TG, the 8350 is an S&R level that is why it is my FTA. You would notice the wedge that formed along with the divergence it created that is why I'm expecting it to got through the FTA. With the FTA acting as support rather than resistance. You would also notice the clear divergence of price that is as mike says when Price makes a new low then it turns up then a new low then it turns up. This is what am seeing also on the weekly:

Al
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  • #130,185
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:09am Mar 10, 2014 4:09am
Quoting Tail Gunner
{quote} Hey guys. Obviously, you two have much more experience than I do, but isn't that trade going against the main trend, going into traffic, and also quickly heading into a S/R level at 0.8350? That trade seems to have a great deal going against it. Where am I going wrong? Not criticizing. I just want to learn.
This pattern is preaty reliable from the practice. Of course they work not 100% of times, but more than 50% for sure. Albus gave u nice answer. All I can add is that this pattern has a rounding effect that means loss of bearish potential. It also important that in this kind of scenario price should move fast with momentum if the setup is right. And of course u shoud watch ur trouble areas close.
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If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #130,186
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:15am Mar 10, 2014 4:15am
Here's a trade I could maybe have managed better. GBPJPY, my first weekly. I entered on the break of the pinbar marked, 4 weeks ago, and ended up exiting the following week on the retrace of the first doji. I had followed my stop up pretty close as I didn't want to see all those pips disappear.

As we can see, last week, I would have hit my initial target of 173 and taken around 400pips. Given the retracing that went on until last week, when we finally hit target with a bullish bar, the only way I could have seen myself winning on this one would have been to hold at BE until hitting the target. Scary stuff!

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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,187
  • Mar 10, 2014 10:51am Mar 10, 2014 10:51am
Quoting Berserker
Here's a trade I could maybe have managed better. GBPJPY, my first weekly. I entered on the break of the pinbar marked, 4 weeks ago, and ended up exiting the following week on the retrace of the first doji. I had followed my stop up pretty close as I didn't want to see all those pips disappear. {image}
Don't beat yourself up, we all do that... as long as the trade was positive, its the only way to not let a winner become a loser esp. when you are starting.
i also exited that trade right about where you did. But that was my target, so... wherever price goes after that did not bother me much.

one thing i have realised in my trading journey is to set a target for a trade. when price gets there, i get out. (or at least move to BE). i have missed some very good runners, but that's the stage i am in and it has built my confidence.

regards
Dinta
  • #130,188
  • Mar 10, 2014 11:05am Mar 10, 2014 11:05am
hi all,
could any of the Seniors give me his / her take on this EU breakout from the monthly TL?
i missed the entry that led to the push above the trendline, and i have been watching, hoping(?) it will retrace to give me a leg in to enter.
is anyone else watching it? and what is the best way to play a brkout like this?

NB:
sorry am at work, can only post this web chart.

rgds,
Dinta
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  • #130,189
  • Mar 10, 2014 3:22pm Mar 10, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting Dinta
{quote} Don't beat yourself up, we all do that... as long as the trade was positive, its the only way to not let a winner become a loser esp. when you are starting. i also exited that trade right about where you did. But that was my target, so... wherever price goes after that did not bother me much. one thing i have realised in my trading journey is to set a target for a trade. when price gets there, i get out. (or at least move to BE). i have missed some very good runners, but that's the stage i am in and it has built my confidence. regards Dinta...
Thanks for your reply! You're right in that the most important thing is that I came out on top.

This is what I'm getting stuck on at the moment - to try and bag runners, or to set smaller targets. I have been running the former for a few months now - last month I left a good few hundred pips on the table with this method ( trades going 50pips in favour, before retracing for BE or tiny profit ).

I'll continue with this method for the rest of this month, and think about setting FTA targets, for example, next month. At least with demo I can try all this out safely

Cheers
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,190
  • Mar 10, 2014 7:12pm Mar 10, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting forexact
This pair has broken above its inverted head and shoulder pattern on the back of last weeks rally. We will be looking to establish longs in this pair on signs of reversal for a move towards the 0.95 region. please opinion {image}
You can buy below the current price. look at the attachment.
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  • #130,191
  • Edited 9:39am Mar 11, 2014 4:47am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting Berserker
{quote} Thanks for your reply! You're right in that the most important thing is that I came out on top. This is what I'm getting stuck on at the moment - to try and bag runners, or to set smaller targets. I have been running the former for a few months now - last month I left a good few hundred pips on the table with this method ( trades going 50pips in favour, before retracing for BE or tiny profit ). I'll continue with this method for the rest of this month, and think about setting FTA targets, for example, next month. At least with demo I can...
Hi B,


I was about to write a very nice after-the-fact analysis, mentioning one of Jarroo's trade management (move SL below the bar that broke), but then… you know… critics based on hindsight are far from constructive

Then, I have had something else in mind for quite few months now.
It all started when I was gaining interest in 60minuteman's "H4 power" strategy. I really made me thinking hard, as his strategy uses support and resistance as well, but in a slightly different way.
But above all, what 60 used to say is basically that a 30-40% winning strategy can - and will - be highly profitable when one stop focusing on being right and start focusing on making money. Ring a bell?
He posted a link to this article to further support this idea.

And all this reminded me a few posts from our great J16 chart thread:
- one in which James himself gives an example of a person from his group who rode a damn long trend and effectively endured a huge retracement.
Obvious question following this post: how can you see your profit moving from a few hundred pips to a few tens or so pips?
James answer was: "well, this person doesn't care about retracements that do not reach the 61.8% mark". Read the following few responses, they are worth a few minutes of your time: Aaron, and J16.
- Another post was this one from Raczeckfx.
What this post basically highlights is the power of scaling in AND of following the flow.
There also was a post of a Mike's trade (can't seem to find it unfortunatly) that lasted for months.

All this led me to another thread: building an equity millipede.
To be honest, it is my third attempt at reading it
it just start sinking in: I just start asking myself how I could implement this "philosophy" in my trading plan, along with J16's most basic system (which is the way I trade so far, with quite some success - except when I f**k up my position sizing
These two threads (H4 power & the equity millipede) made me starting to understand a lot of other trading ideas, disorderly: PPZ and HCR/LCS levels (it's all about whether price will break or bounce), free trade à la Jarroo or DIBS (be ready to have a lot of BE, patiently wait for the few big big runners), fixed RR is a myth (again: closing too early banks some profit BUT prevents me to benefice from the big runner), daily / weekly / monthly open price are important (see DIBS thread!), etc...

All this to say:
I started considering trading as just a way to be in the market.
I would enter the market on the basis of a J16 PA signal, in the direction of the main trend.
I would take partial profit at FTA and move to BE (= if FTA is +50 pips, SL will be moved at -50 pips), and then WAIT for the market to develop or shrink this position.
I am then looking for opportunities to add to this position, with very little risk, while keeping my initial SL at BE.
I've had freaking good results over january with this method.
Then, the difficulty (for me) has been to keep following the flow. Sounds easy, but it requires quite a lot of focus to keep things simple and in agreement with the market flow.

Sorry, it has been a long post… It was an attempt at clarifying my ideas (very selfish, isn't it?) as well as to provoke some discussion with other fellow traders

Work in progress!

take care
Slow & steady
  • #130,192
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:09pm Mar 11, 2014 8:09pm
off on a small vacation to some warmer weather till sunday

you all behave and trade smart

Mike
  • #130,193
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:36am Mar 12, 2014 4:36am
Quoting patapouer
{quote} Hi B, I was about to write a very nice after-the-fact analysis, mentioning one of Jarroo's trade management (move SL below the bar that broke), but then… you know… critics based on hindsight are far from constructive Then, I have had something else in mind for quite few months now. It all started when I was gaining interest in 60minuteman's "H4 power" strategy. I really made me thinking hard, as his strategy uses support and resistance as well, but in a slightly different...
Thank you very much for that! I know you say it's mainly a selfish post as it's helping you get your thoughts in order - but you're definitely giving me something to think about re. exits and managing of trades. Looking forward to following your links and then sharing my thoughts!

Cheers pal!
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,194
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:37am Mar 12, 2014 4:37am
Quoting mbqb11
off on a small vacation to some warmer weather till sunday you all behave and trade smart Mike
Enjoy your break Mike!
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,195
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:12pm Mar 12, 2014 2:12pm
hello traders!
a little experiment with this trade)
merging at one point MA, fibo 61,8% and 92.0 levels. reversal pattern in addition.
but as for me is too bearish pulsebeat as for retracement and FTA strong and too close.
so wondering what will)
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  • #130,196
  • Mar 12, 2014 4:42pm Mar 12, 2014 4:42pm
Hi guys,

GBPUSD - Nice pin is forming on D1. On h4 it is already there, and also Insidebar.

Possible entry on H4 1.6630, SL: 40 pips, TP: 110 pips

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any thoughts?

Thx,
HG
  • #130,197
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:11pm Mar 12, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting respectosik
hello traders! a little experiment with this trade) merging at one point MA, fibo 61,8% and 92.0 levels. reversal pattern in addition. but as for me is too bearish pulsebeat as for retracement and FTA strong and too close. so wondering what will) {image}
I think it lacks space
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  • #130,198
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:24pm Mar 12, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting hginvestor
Hi guys, GBPUSD - Nice pin is forming on D1. On h4 it is already there, and also Insidebar. Possible entry on H4 1.6630, SL: 40 pips, TP: 110 pips {image} any thoughts? Thx, HG
Hi HG,

I didn't even notice it when scanning through the charts...
very little bar if I may, and stuck in a strongly ranging market.

I would personally avoid this one.

Take care
Slow & steady
  • #130,199
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:37pm Mar 12, 2014 5:37pm
Quoting hginvestor
Hi guys, GBPUSD - Nice pin is forming on D1. On h4 it is already there, and also Insidebar. Possible entry on H4 1.6630, SL: 40 pips, TP: 110 pips {image} any thoughts? Thx, HG
Becareful of the resistance just ahead of it @1.6650.

Al
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  • #130,200
  • Mar 13, 2014 4:41am Mar 13, 2014 4:41am
Quoting hginvestor
Hi guys, GBPUSD - Nice pin is forming on D1. On h4 it is already there, and also Insidebar. Possible entry on H4 1.6630, SL: 40 pips, TP: 110 pips {image} any thoughts? Thx, HG
Did you pull the trigger? I'm 50 pips up with this one at the moment. Now contemplating my trade management... see next post!
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
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