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AUD/USD

  • #74,141
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:37pm Mar 11, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I just hope this isn't one of those things where people need data releases to justify prices going against them but surely not when price moves in their favor.
Not at all... (It could be just that, checked) I just notice, UJ move indicate weaker US, and XAU move up, why then AUD move down? No doubt about fundamentally weaker chinese data, and drop in copper price, but why in NY session? That is the reason, i feel suspicious about the move. I do not have any position with AU right now. Just curiosity. ^_^
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #74,142
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:40pm Mar 11, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Not at all... (It could be just that, checked) I just notice, UJ move indicate weaker US, and XAU move up, why then AUD move down? No doubt about fundamentally weaker chinese data, and drop in copper price, but why in NY session? That is the reason, i feel suspicious about the move. I do not have any position with AU right now. Just curiosity. ^_^
no no, its not indicating weaker US.... but rather investors around the world Favour JPY more than US as a safe haven. doesnt mean US isnt a safe havent though... just more demand for JPY.

I see Strengths on CHF, NZD, JPY, USD and... guess what. Gold on recent uncertainty in the world economy.

the US Dollar index is actually flat..., so no its not dollar weakness. just JPY being more favored for speculators scrambling for Safe Haven.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,143
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:45pm Mar 11, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} no no, its not indicating weaker US.... but rather investors around the world Favour JPY more than US as a safe haven. doesnt mean US isnt a safe havent though... just more demand for JPY. I see Strengths on CHF, NZD, JPY, USD and... guess what. Gold on recent uncertainty in the world economy. the US Dollar index is actually flat..., so no its not dollar weakness. just JPY being more favored for speculators scrambling for Safe Haven. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
Ahh, i didn't see that. Thanks for explaining.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #74,144
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:53pm Mar 11, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} no no, its not indicating weaker US.... but rather investors around the world Favour JPY more than US as a safe haven. doesnt mean US isnt a safe havent though... just more demand for JPY. I see Strengths on CHF, NZD, JPY, USD and... guess what. Gold on recent uncertainty in the world economy. the US Dollar index is actually flat..., so no its not dollar weakness. just JPY being more favored for speculators scrambling for Safe Haven. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
JPY also for unwinding carry.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #74,145
  • Mar 11, 2014 3:23pm Mar 11, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} The trick I found is to dull it down, make the clouds almost transparent until you get more comfortable with it.. And youtube it, there is a guy that calls the clouds turbulence, very very helpful. I think some Aussie traders are going to wake up a little sore this morning.
lol, think that will depend on which way they were trading it.
  • #74,146
  • Edited 3:42pm Mar 11, 2014 3:26pm | Edited 3:42pm
check out aud/cad
move pretty well to the downside today
- next support are 9910, 9845, 9829
also lookout for inverse hs at top rs at 9930-9950 then up for neckline(1.0128)
-this inverse hs seen better on a linechart
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #74,147
  • Mar 11, 2014 3:52pm Mar 11, 2014 3:52pm
Still holding all heavy shorts on this bastard. Unfortunatey although I was expecting a ramp to as high as .90 I certainly wasn't expecting a squeeze to .913 so I was all out of ammo and unable to add at those ridiculously juicy prices. What a f**king squeeze, bastards. They do say "be careful what you wish for".
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,148
  • Mar 11, 2014 4:38pm Mar 11, 2014 4:38pm
Aussie just being the Aussie, maybe this time it reaches for a new low?
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #74,149
  • Mar 11, 2014 5:13pm Mar 11, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Perhaps this is explaining why AUD is being taken to the Shed for slaughter... China in risk of default, Copper prices collapsing... With china possibly defaulting on its contract agreements for financing of credit and possibly futures contract's promised payments may not be paid, Australia is holding on a lot of China's purchase on credit agreements that are possibly going to become worthless to Australia. THATS like saying if China defaults on its obligations to pay for its purchase on credit agreements for treasury, metal futures agreements,...
while corporate bond defaults are a big issue for Australia your argument here is a bit too simplistic, you are blending a corporate trust default with government treasuries and our standard export trade. I am a base metals trader by profession and sell copper and zinc to China. It is not a case that the Chinese are given the metal on good faith and you hope they pay later. Your letter of credit is cashed on a sight basis or it is full payment against documents on shipment date. Futures are the same, brokers hold margin, if you fail to meet your margin you are closed out and initial and variation margin they are holding meets the shortfall. At this point no one is even close to suggesting there will be a Chinese default on government treasuries it is really that the Chinese government has finally let a corporate bond default occur. Bank of America Meryl Lynch put out a report on 19th Feb that highlighted lots of regional trusts / corporates who look like to default. In combination with a raft of poor data (PMI & exports) metals and risk are taking a hit. That said if you look at the AUD its not really reacting that much. I am a bear but its seems like the bulls do have some reason for optimism. i cannot remember the last time AUD only slipped 100pips when copper retraced $500/t in 3 trading sessions.
  • #74,150
  • Mar 11, 2014 5:24pm Mar 11, 2014 5:24pm
Should the AUD fall lower? Everyone always talk about how it is overpriced and needs a cheaper currency for exports and blah blah but really for the last couple years AUDUSD has been the highest since 1999, and looking at MN chart of AUDUSD we are really in essence just on a retracement of a bull trend here. The problem is we have pushed deeply into this level and bounced a couple times and failed and has been pushing lower on shorter time frame charts. I am personally bullish on the AUDUSD atm buying any of these oversold conditions I can get.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #74,151
  • Mar 11, 2014 5:33pm Mar 11, 2014 5:33pm
i can understand your logic. i think the AUD should go lower however it isn't. overseas investors still seem keen on the only AAA rated economy with a yield. given the weakness in metals, iron ore and Chinese domestic data, apart from the US suddenly deciding to raise rates i am not sure what is going to push it down.
  • #74,152
  • Mar 11, 2014 5:39pm Mar 11, 2014 5:39pm
I'm glad to see there are still bulls here. I would be worried if everyone was a bear.
I will however applaud bitterly but with humble respect should they turn out to be right further down the line.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #74,153
  • Mar 11, 2014 6:57pm Mar 11, 2014 6:57pm
Quoting tedsung
100% for sure AUDUSD will make new higher price. better to buy for now.
You can probably start looking at buying now...
Enter Signature
  • #74,154
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:10pm Mar 11, 2014 7:10pm
Quoting ChipsnPips
{quote} You can probably start looking at buying now...
Hi,

for me ichimoku and heiken-ashin are marking me that the trend in 15m is short ...
  • #74,155
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:15pm Mar 11, 2014 7:15pm
AUD like the CAD is a commodity currency or commodity-based currency if you want to be specific, so when commodities move, it generally moves too. Gold is on a major resistance-pivot level now just under the 1400 mark and will confirm its road to higher price again should we get up there. What currency is tied to gold? AUD!
There has been a lot of trouble in the AUS this summer and gold miners struck by floods of all sorts + the massive fires, which could explain the bearish sentiment for gold and aus the past months. We have found a bottom for a while now though looking at a kangaroo chart makes my head spin. The bias I get from AUD is the bears are tired and the bulls are coming in just need some good fundie back up and all the fires and floods to be cleaned up and back on track.

So in a way I am playing based off gold going up in price while AUD is diverting going down I will be buying it from a longer term perspective. Should gold not break this resistance and crash hard I will have to find something else.
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #74,156
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:18pm Mar 11, 2014 7:18pm
Quoting caguilar
{quote} Hi, for me ichimoku and heiken-ashin are marking me that the trend in 15m is short ...
Hi, that quote was from page 3702 when the price was at 904. At that stage I was short on this pair but my outlook was that it may bounce at 8981-8940 area

I dont really like the PA at the moment but I think if it slows down a bit at this level then we'll see another bull run. I have an order at 8940 and I will close my trade if the H4 openes and closes below my entry. Physical SL is set at 8878 anyway.
Enter Signature
  • #74,157
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:26pm Mar 11, 2014 7:26pm
Quoting Judge Dent
i can understand your logic. i think the AUD should go lower however it isn't. overseas investors still seem keen on the only AAA rated economy with a yield. given the weakness in metals, iron ore and Chinese domestic data, apart from the US suddenly deciding to raise rates i am not sure what is going to push it down.
Okay i understand i may have jumped the gun in saying that china the coutnry would likely defaut on its obligations
in your previous posts you did say something bout letters of credit being a form of payment where china wpuld have to pay cash upfront in order to buy the copper in credit
but what happens when china buys copper from australia, they would probably place a letter of credit say 50% of the agreed price to acquire the full lot and upon receiving the copper pay the remaining 50%
its the raining 50% that comes in question whether australia would or would not receive in the event of defaulting on the obligation
no body is stupid enough to bay the full 100% before receiving the order

So you see there is still a chance that australia mightve sold to china heir copper for 50% of the agreed price in the event china doesnt pay up the rest.

another thing you got to watch out australia's AAA rating dis get a review from rating agencies of a possible negative forecast or possible downgrade , australia's AAA is no longer in stable as ratings agency saw australia economy too dependent on its mining industry and economy is susceptible to fluctuating commodity prices, their housing market is also another cause for concern

lastly you say people would still prefer Australia's AAA rating, but i say after what happened in 2008 with shitty bonds in US also rated AAA... I doubt people would fully doves themselves right in to AAA products now... I think investors learnt their lesson to take ratings with a pinch of salt nowadays, atleast you would hope they learned their lesson...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,158
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:35pm Mar 11, 2014 7:35pm
Quoting Rtm
AUD like the CAD is a commodity currency or commodity-based currency if you want to be specific, so when commodities move, it generally moves too. Gold is on a major resistance-pivot level now just under the 1400 mark and will confirm its road to higher price again should we get up there. What currency is tied to gold? AUD! There has been a lot of trouble in the AUS this summer and gold miners struck by floods of all sorts + the massive fires, which could explain the bearish sentiment for gold and aus the past months. We have found a bottom for...
Buddy, you should not link gold to AUD, albeit AUD do produce gold
gold price shot up in 2008 because people panicked and there was no where to go for safe haven than to park their money in gold
AUD is more tied with industrial metals such as copper instead.
Reason why AUD got up to 1.06 around 2010 is because china industry os doing well to continue australian demand of industrial metals, whereas US and European turmoils pusehd the gold price up
believe it or not. Gold is more a gauge of inflation where US and Europe inflation are relatively low
so theres no need to park money into gold.
Gold if i really need to make a correlation analysis is more linked with the US money supply.

gold if anything is becoming more and more irrelevant to the AUD as Australian mining firms are actually shutting down productions of gold as these Australian mining firms hot squeezed hard when gold prices fell to as low as 1180. Hence theAustralian describing it their need to invest in something else in Australia's economy as their mining boom comes to an end.
gold began falling in price when analysts see US tapering and interest rate rise on the horizon. Not really anything to do with Australia
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #74,159
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:39pm Mar 11, 2014 7:39pm
Quoting Rtm
AUD like the CAD is a commodity currency or commodity-based currency if you want to be specific, so when commodities move, it generally moves too. Gold is on a major resistance-pivot level now just under the 1400 mark and will confirm its road to higher price again should we get up there. What currency is tied to gold? AUD! There has been a lot of trouble in the AUS this summer and gold miners struck by floods of all sorts + the massive fires, which could explain the bearish sentiment for gold and aus the past months. We have found a bottom for...

Ozzy gold mines arent in the jungle or forrests, Fires and floods don't have an effect on gold sentiment. Most of our gold and ore mines are in the middle of the desert.

What the fires and floods may effect is the levey the gov places on the tax payers to clean up the mess. This drives consumer spending ect as we all just copped an extra $1,500 bill at tax time. Add to that the insurance premiums go up across the country and the cost of anything produced in the areas worst hit goes through the roof.
IMO if you build your house on the bank of a river with 7m tides then perhaps you should cop the cost yourself! Yibida yibida you idiot!(not calling you an idiot Rtm, unless you own a house on the bank of a river that is knwen to flood.lol)

Mining sector (Gas,gold, ore, coal) drives Australia from the bottom to the top. When a new mining project starts and all of a sudden the housing market picks up, vehicle sales pick up, Hell even the beauty spa's get busyer because all the boys doing FIFO send home a nice pay packet to thier wives.
Yes the currency is correlated with Gold but the AUD (long term) is just a reflection of the economy isn't it?

If your trading AUD pairs based on what the comods do then you may want to keep an eye on Ore prices as well :-)
Enter Signature
  • #74,160
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:41pm Mar 11, 2014 7:41pm
Quoting ChipsnPips
{quote} Ozzy gold mines arent in the jungle or forrests, Fires and floods don't have an effect on gold sentiment. Most of our gold and ore mines are in the middle of the desert. What the fires and floods may effect is the levey the gov places on the tax payers to clean up the mess. This drives consumer spending ect as we all just copped an extra $1,500 bill at tax time. Add to that the insurance premiums go up across the country and the cost of anything produced in the areas worst hit goes through the roof. IMO if you build your house on the bank...
Makes sense, but pls dont start a war, dont go calling him an idiot because of his common misconception that Aud is tied to gold prices...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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