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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #11,821
  • Mar 11, 2014 1:58pm Mar 11, 2014 1:58pm
Depends on the timeframe...

Long term Fundamentals....

Unemployment in the UK has been falling since 2012 and the economy is growing, which is GBP +ve.

Japan will continue their QE which is JPY -ve.

Long term Technicals...

As long as the trendline remains intact (see chart) and the price remains above 163.860 my view is long.


Quoting Temujin
So Caldera, what is your analysis for GBP/JPY? You know my view.
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  • #11,822
  • Mar 11, 2014 1:58pm Mar 11, 2014 1:58pm
heres my humble analysis, solely based on price action. if price rebound from 170.20-170.70 region, theres high probability for rally higher. (fundamentals excluded)
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  • #11,823
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:06pm Mar 11, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting pungggi
found interesting chart http://daily-forex-trader.blogspot.c...-11-march.html bullish cypher pattern.. buy at 170.60 TP 171.60

A 100 pip gain, yes there is a support level near that 170.60. Some kind of relief rally could be on the way before the downtrend continues.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,824
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:10pm Mar 11, 2014 2:10pm
And there goes 171, gone.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,825
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:17pm Mar 11, 2014 2:17pm
fundamentals, uk is rather weak
1. house bubble
2. our lovely mikey(carney) getting pawned earlier
3. lack of growth to sustain gdp/debt
4. weak ip data recently (production)
5. some analyst recently point out that gbp will probably fall(kathy lien) @twitter


but in shorter time frame i think its gonna do just fine, and still lots of time for BOE to change its policy.

yours to command, alberthall
  • #11,826
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:26pm Mar 11, 2014 2:26pm
It's trying to rally at 171 now. The pound is awesome. Isn't Carney going to raise rates in the next 3 years?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,827
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:30pm Mar 11, 2014 2:30pm
U/J is sitting at short-term support on 5M chart. I expect a bounce higher for all JPY pairs, then -- and only then -- a continued push lower.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #11,828
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:32pm Mar 11, 2014 2:32pm
Had to close that short and take the 74 pips. They are trying to cowboy up now and rally it after that 250 pip fall from March 7.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,829
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:35pm Mar 11, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting Temujin
Had to close that short and take the 74 pips. They are trying to cowboy up now and rally it after that 250 pip fall from March 7.
Nice trade
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #11,830
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:38pm Mar 11, 2014 2:38pm
We do tend to have a reputation for being a little pessimistic...

But, when you put the UK into perspective with respect to other economies there is alot of growth taking place, especially in London...

If you're in the UK and you have some time... you should watch this...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...est_Episode_1/

Quoting alberthall
fundamentals, uk is rather weak 1. house bubble 2. our lovely mikey(carney) getting pawned earlier 3. lack of growth to sustain gdp/debt 4. weak ip data recently (production) 5. some analyst recently point out that gbp will probably fall(kathy lien) @twitter but in shorter time frame i think its gonna do just fine, and still lots of time for BOE to change its policy. yours to command, alberthall
  • #11,831
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:40pm Mar 11, 2014 2:40pm
well son of genghis, monetery policy can change anytime, thats the function of central bank, to preserve the capital flow and inhibit any real loss . with trillions of pounds invested at stake, rates can rise anytime. plus, theres an ongoing investigation on dear boy carney himself.
  • #11,832
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:44pm Mar 11, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting caldera
We do tend to have a reputation for being a little pessimistic... But, when you put the UK into perspective with respect to other economies there is alot of growth taking place, especially in London... If you're in the UK and you have some time... you should watch this... http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...est_Episode_1/ {quote}

nicely said dear caldera. its the middle between japan and the states. you cant go wrong when you bet on it
  • #11,833
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:45pm Mar 11, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} Agreed Tom ... on those bigger TF views risk is growing for a move to the downside ... and as you mentioned already ... that is not a day-traders view ... And I'm not looking for endless stories ... It was not ... it is not ... and will never be that way ... Jedem das Seine! Mir das Meine! ;-|

Okay good ...

Market did give us the opportunity to load some further pendings in lower zone ...

USD/JPY :

ENTRY series with avg LONG = 102.9518 ...


GBP/JPY :

ENTRY series with avg LONG = 171.1349 ...

###

Position squaring procedures done already ... within very short time ...

###

And now we are traveling with lower avg therefore ... and now we are going to wait ... it's dinner time here ... laters ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #11,834
  • Mar 11, 2014 3:04pm Mar 11, 2014 3:04pm
doji on the 1H, im long
  • #11,835
  • Edited 3:27pm Mar 11, 2014 3:16pm | Edited 3:27pm
also seems to be forming bullish divergence on the 1H. Should have probably waited until it completely formed before i entered.
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  • #11,836
  • Mar 11, 2014 3:54pm Mar 11, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision points for calendar week EU(11)/US(11) for GBP/JPY: Map: (1) 177.20/00 (2) 175.60/40 (3) 174.80/60 optimal TP (long) (4) 173.20/00 (5) 171.60/40 (Sweet Spot) (6) 170.80/00 Short TP + Buyback or add for continuation (7) 169.60/20 Second Buyback etc. (8) 168.20/00 (9) 166.40/20 (10) 165.20/00 Actual decision point @ 50% of both decision points @ 172.00/71.80
Cheers FX
  • #11,837
  • Mar 11, 2014 4:20pm Mar 11, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} Okay good ... Market did give us the opportunity to load some further pendings in lower zone ... USD/JPY : ENTRY series with avg LONG = 102.9518 ... GBP/JPY : ENTRY series with avg LONG = 171.1349 ... ### Position squaring procedures done already ... within very short time ... ### And now we are traveling with lower avg therefore ... and we are going to wait ... it's dinner time here ... laters ... ;-|


Okay good ...

Market did move a tad towards higher zone ... corrective in nature ...

USD/JPY :

ENTRY series with avg LONG = 102.9518 ... some profits taken => partial EXIT in 103.025 zone ...


GBP/JPY :

ENTRY series with avg LONG = 171.1349 ... some profits taken => partial EXIT in 171.200 zone ...

###

Possible re-do procedures taken in consideration ... we will wait for another point of time ... enough for now ...

###

Maybe after change of value date ... maybe during Tokyo Session ... we will see ... laters ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #11,838
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:43pm Mar 11, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Nice trade
Thanks smash1820. It seems 171.00 is holding the line in Tokyo so far. This may be the place for a rally up to the 38.2% Fibonacci weekly pivot line of 171.72 but I can also see it's a fight here too. Went long at 171.02. Hope this is the accumulation point for a price mark-up later. Thanks once again for the encouragement.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,839
  • Mar 11, 2014 9:06pm Mar 11, 2014 9:06pm
Went long at 171.04..Stop at 170.65
Lets see if we can take out highs
  • #11,840
  • Mar 11, 2014 9:50pm Mar 11, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting josh1125
Went long at 171.04..Stop at 170.65 Lets see if we can take out highs
It worked Josh so that was the support level. Now I don't know if London will follow through or............. Appears to be in some kind of tentative uptrend again after 2.5 days of selling. Not sure if I should TP the 40 pips or let it ride. Perhaps 20 more hours into London and then NY.
Be humble or be humbled.
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