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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #11,781
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:35am Mar 11, 2014 7:35am
I think 171.17 will not break easily.

It's at 50% fibo, and it coincides with the upper edge of the channel from the recent range.

If anything it should bounce here. But if it does there probably won't be enough momentum to carry this above the recent break in trendline at 171.86.

I think the price will range between 171.86-171.17.

Quoting eNjoyPips
{quote} Seeing this p.a, I do not think long is recommendable at least for today. Why? 171.7 support has been broken in 4 hour chart. Next destination should be 170.8, then 170.3. If pair closes above 172.26/30 in 4 hour chart, then upwards towards 173.00/173.55. Trade safely people.
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  • #11,782
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:36am Mar 11, 2014 7:36am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} If fibs or moving averages are playing a part in this equation, it's more by coincidence than by design
Hi Mpt, historically on a 2 pip range bar chart the 300 EMA is a point of high activity, at least on my charts. I could set my watch by the relationship between the ADR's and the 300 EMA. If its a coincidence its a consistent one for me. Though I concede on the face if it today, GJ isnt the 'prettiest' chart out there.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #11,783
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:37am Mar 11, 2014 7:37am
Quoting eNjoyPips
{quote} Seeing this p.a, I do not think long is recommendable at least for today. Why? 171.7 support has been broken in 4 hour chart. Next destination should be 170.8, then 170.3. If pair closes above 172.26/30 in 4 hour chart, then upwards towards 173.00/173.55. Trade safely people.
My last post for this week.

I will be placing longs from 170.8, 170.1, 169.2. TP: 172.6 & 173.55

Reason: 1) 170.8: A lot of resistance (170.8-171) if you see 4 hour chart, especially for month of Feb.
2) 170.1: Ichimoku cloud for 4 hour (yes I use ichimoku and it is very helpful when trading this pair)
3) 169.2: I believe it would not reach till this point, but if it does, it would be mainly due to previous swing low.

Targets 172.6 reason: gap trading, I'm sure it would hit this point some time late this week.
Target 173.55 reason: Considering 4hour closes above 172.3, I am sure this pair would create new high (possibly what FXray posted at 174.8/6

Good luck everyone!
  • #11,784
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:42am Mar 11, 2014 7:42am
Quoting caldera
I think 171.17 will not break easily. It's at 50% fibo, and it coincides with the upper edge of the channel from the recent range. If anything it should bounce here. But if it does there probably won't be enough momentum to carry this above the recent break in trendline at 171.86. I think the price will range between 171.86-171.17. {quote} {image}
Break or not, we shall see. This pair is unpredictable.

I agree with your point about this pair ranging between 171.1 and 171.8.

Perhaps it's waiting for Thursday to make its move.

If by 13 March Japan open it still lingers between the range, I am very sure this pair would go up.
  • #11,785
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:48am Mar 11, 2014 7:48am
Quoting HedgePiglet
As anticipated, a strong resistance at the 300EMA and a new fall. I anticipate this will continue down through the 50% level, and lets hope it reaches the 75%. {image}
Hi HP.....I looked at my 60m chart to check my retracement levels and I was surprised to find that my 50% of last week's range is at 171.18 vs the level on your chart of 171.38 which is rather a large difference. I guess that you may be working off say the March futures chart?? or do you have something else?....
Regards
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,786
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:49am Mar 11, 2014 7:49am
Quoting eNjoyPips
{quote} Break or not, we shall see. This pair is unpredictable. I agree with your point about this pair ranging between 171.1 and 171.8. Perhaps it's waiting for Thursday to make its move. If by 13 March Japan open it still lingers between the range, I am very sure this pair would go up.
Unpredictable to a certain degree. But I can tell certainly if those shorts are going to bail, its gonna go up hard. Atm, you might be right.
  • #11,787
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:54am Mar 11, 2014 7:54am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Hi HP.....I looked at my 60m chart to check my retracement levels and I was surprised to find that my 50% of last week's range is at 171.18 vs the level on your chart of 171.38 which is rather a large difference. I guess that you may be working off say the March futures chart?? or do you have something else?.... Regards {image}
I use a 5 day ADR to plot levels. Popular opinion has it that a vision beyond 5 days range tends to be less relevant. What I can say with some authority is that the daily ranges are RUBBISH at the moment! Towards the end of last year the top 6 currencies (what we trade as a team) were WELL above 200 pips per day with the top 3 beyond 300 per day. It was only a few days ago that the ranges reached 150 again. Its mighty hard to make 100 pips a day out of a chart thats only doing 150, and we know its never a straight line! So in the mean time we are trading ES, NQ and YM at the NY open to prop our pips.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #11,788
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:57am Mar 11, 2014 7:57am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Hi HP.....I looked at my 60m chart to check my retracement levels and I was surprised to find that my 50% of last week's range is at 171.18 vs the level on your chart of 171.38 which is rather a large difference. I guess that you may be working off say the March futures chart?? or do you have something else?.... Regards {image}
Here are the latest values. Column 1 is yesterdays range, column 2 (red) is the 5 day and 3 (blue) is the 10 day. All a bit horrid...
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #11,789
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:05am Mar 11, 2014 8:05am
Quoting FX-Ray
Minor decision point @ 171.51/48
Still valid.
  • #11,790
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:09am Mar 11, 2014 8:09am
@ HP...Ah, so your highs and lows are based on the 5ADR I guess normalised around the day's mid point....now is that dynamic or historic .....I too monitor the 5; 10 & 20 ADRs....

PS Now waiting to see IF the US traders are going to buy the Yen at this level....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,791
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:11am Mar 11, 2014 8:11am
Quoting Islander
@ HP...Ah, so your highs and lows are based on the 5ADR I guess normalised around the day's mid point....now dynamic or historic .....I too monitor the 5; 10 & 20 ADRs.... {image}
Correct. Midnight to midnight.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #11,792
  • Edited 8:44am Mar 11, 2014 8:33am | Edited 8:44am
This is how I currently show the ADR info and FXRay's price bands...so far little probability of the 10ADR being tested!....I'm long GJ from 171.60....

PS there is a Market Profile indicator with a 6 day look back off the left side of this chart, the orange lines are its PVP levels....moving further "back in time" it will draw other levels which line up with more of FXRay's levels
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,793
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:36am Mar 11, 2014 8:36am
Quoting Islander
This is how I currently show the ADR info and FXRay's price bands...so far little probability of the 10ADR being tested!....I'm long GJ from 171.60.... {image}
Nice ePic!
Add: Nice to see this thread assuming shape, well done.
  • #11,794
  • Mar 11, 2014 9:22am Mar 11, 2014 9:22am
To give comfort to Islander, your long looks sound on my chart!
Mpt you got this one bud, it tested the 300EMA once more then reversed, nice little retracement and now the long. Holding thumbs for Islander!
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #11,795
  • Edited 9:52am Mar 11, 2014 9:38am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Nice ePic! Add: Nice to see this thread assuming shape, well done.
Thanks FX-R.....GJ is trying my patience.....waiting for someone to sell some yen...SL now +10 so either way its a free ride.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,796
  • Mar 11, 2014 9:46am Mar 11, 2014 9:46am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Thanks FX-R.....GJ is trying my patience.....waiting for someone to buy some yen...SL now +10 so either way its a free ride.....
You mean sell yen
  • #11,797
  • Mar 11, 2014 9:51am Mar 11, 2014 9:51am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You mean sell yen


Edit: out +10 on SL......now I'll go and kick the cat before someone sells a yard...I might have to declare that the sun's over the yard arm soon....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,798
  • Mar 11, 2014 9:56am Mar 11, 2014 9:56am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You mean sell yen
Then buy it in loger term )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We've got an possible rising wedge present on higher time frames, for now 171,4-5 supply zone holds so we might see some up momentum to the daily pivot point which is not far away now. In longer term I'd look for break of that rising wedge to the downside with targets below 170 figure, but that's not an intraday analysis.
  • #11,799
  • Edited 10:14am Mar 11, 2014 10:02am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting Wuza
{quote} Then buy it in loger term ) {image} We've got an possible rising wedge present on higher time frames, for now 171,4-5 supply zone holds so we might see some up momentum to the daily pivot point which is not far away now. In longer term I'd look for break of that rising wedge to the downside with targets below 170 figure, but that's not an intraday analysis.
Indeed possible, IŽd rather prefer to buy around 170.80/60 and/or 169.60/20; as long 171.60/40 holds here and stops gets taken out @ 172.40/20, IŽd stay long. Nice clean chart btw.

Add: Game Plan: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7330937#post7330937 (end of week analysis)
  • #11,800
  • Mar 11, 2014 10:10am Mar 11, 2014 10:10am
I got fed up with The Dragon playing games.....long cable in the 15:04 bar

Edit: out for a dozen in 3 minutes....and I'm finished for the day....
Trading Levels with WRBs
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