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Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #1,681
  • Mar 10, 2014 11:21pm Mar 10, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} No, my float is around breakeven....... My broker allows 50:1, so all of my positions total currently 4:1. That is how much leverage I am using to maintain my positions. The key to trading this way for me is to keep the margin man way while collecting pips for the wave motion of the market.

Thank you. If I read that question correctly, your margin percentage would be 1250%, and your broker would happily let you let him carry over 12 times the debt he is carrying now.

If your principle goes up, so does the amount he is willing to carry. On the MT-4, IBFX prints a line just below the list of Active trades.

I estimate your principle/ debt load to be well over 1000%. Others tell me not to worry until This drops down to 50%.

I suggest not waiting for this. If you see your current margin (currently at 4:1) Increasing, Look to increase the weight of the trades going in your favor: (the problem is, of course, those pesky things keep dropping out on take profit. The ones in loss do not drop out: However, they may be going in your favor by moving closer to profit.
If the profit, loss column is getting less and less negative this is the case.

I guess what I am saying is that the size of the margin ratio is not as important as the question whether it is shrinking on a month to month basis.

The fastest indicator of this is the profit/loss number (the very last number on this line).

I keep a journal in notepad on my computer. (notepad is the simplest text program offered by windows without going to the command prompt.
I sometimes get concerned about this number ( I call it debt load, because it is negative the way I operate. If that number is positive, I would start Reaping the harvest. The "lesson" I will down load next).

Then I put a separate section in my journal (separated by a line of equal signs) the looks like this.
debt load watch:
1893.55/1917.44 1912.20

the first number is the number at which I started getting concerned. After the division sign, the second number is the largest I've seen to date. After a tab (which works in notepad just like on an old typewriter except that you can't change the size) I record the number I see whenever I pass the screen. If the last two numbers agree, that is not a good sign. If the first two numbers agree, that is a very, very good sign. That is the condition I strive for.

Think of it as a race between your principle and this number. If the principle grows larger than this number does, good, good, good. If this number grows larger than the principle, bad, bad, bad. If it is bad, bad, bad, Revisit the four tools I listed in the post called "Weeding the Garden" (post number 1676) , Select a tool, and start weeding.
  • #1,682
  • Mar 11, 2014 6:09am Mar 11, 2014 6:09am
Quoting michaellobry
{quote} An amateur and a professional trader could both make profit if they start a bullish trade with 0.01 lot position size, that in the end ends up -15 pips. If the main trend is bearish (MAs are pointing down), then keep your losing trade alive and start another trade: bearish, 0.02 lot size. if you are at +8 pips close out both trades and you made profit netto. In the case the second trade also gets -15 pips, just close out the first trade (which is at breakeven), and start another trade of 0.04 lot size. Continue this process: keep starting...
The difference is that a true professional trader would never do what you just described.
  • #1,683
  • Mar 11, 2014 6:33am Mar 11, 2014 6:33am
If you guys think that hanky and panky are not both alive because someone is "regulated" you should read the article about loyd's leaking to BP:
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=474712
  • #1,684
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:14am Mar 11, 2014 7:14am
Before we do the lesson on Reaping the crop, Here is my take on kinds of moving average conditions.

Also this improvement on entering pending trades: after adding 15 or 50 p to the entry point move the tp on up to a number ending in 00 or 50: Clusters of orders tend to gather there. Since a market maker is supposed to try to fill orders... etc,etc. (It's not "hunting" , it's his job).

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This file describes moving essentially as push predictors. I would add that where the fast moving average crosses a slower moving average that is a signal to treat the group as either type 1 or 5 for a while, only with a little more caution. Some people would call this counter- trend trading. Similar but not quite. That is a different technique that I have as yet not added to the system. This is basically a Trend- following system with so many windows open that it is bound to catch a trend somewhere!

How to reap the crop, coming up. the two files are closely interrelated.
  • #1,685
  • Mar 11, 2014 11:22am Mar 11, 2014 11:22am
My deficiencies while trading.

- When i am looking for buy then i only look for long opportunity and i ignore all short opportunities.

+27 Pips.

Weekly target = 100 Pips
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Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #1,686
  • Mar 11, 2014 11:40am Mar 11, 2014 11:40am
Quoting aahmad29
My deficiencies while trading. - When i am looking for buy then i only look for long opportunity and i ignore all short opportunities. +27 Pips. Weekly target = 100 Pips {image}
IF you look around you will find a pair that almost always goes down when this one goes up, and vice versa.
For instance Every currency will be paired with at least four other currencies, some of which will tend to go with each other, some which will go down when the others go up. Set up buy stops a distance away up on some pairs, and sell stops down on others. You can, if you wish , put stop losses right at where the price is now , but I don't.

This way, if the price goes the wrong way on the pair you started out with, 90% of the time it will go the right way on one of the other pairs. You get money whichever way the currency goes.

There is more to it than that, of course. Take a look at my posts and you will see my thinking in detail. All I ask is that you remember the poor.
  • #1,687
  • Mar 11, 2014 12:47pm Mar 11, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} IF you look around you will find a pair that almost always goes down when this one goes up, and vice versa. For instance Every currency will be paired with at least four other currencies, some of which will tend to go with each other, some which will go down when the others go up. Set up buy stops a distance away up on some pairs, and sell stops down on others. You can, if you wish , put stop losses right at where the price is now , but I don't. This way, if the price goes the wrong way on the pair you started out with, 90% of the time it...
This is my demo account from Monday, 10 Mar 2013, I am not trading exactly and following the rules from rap skallion. I am still learning and honing my skills as I go along.

I have noticed is that my balance grew 1.5% but my equity is more or less the same, what I think is when the market starts to turn in the opposite direction then I will pick up all the loosing trades turning them into profits and at the same time controling my DD and risk.

I still need alot to learn from Rap Skallion
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  • #1,688
  • Mar 11, 2014 1:48pm Mar 11, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting pullice
{quote} This is my demo account from Monday, 10 Mar 2013, I am not trading exactly and following the rules from rap skallion. I am still learning and honing my skills as I go along. I have noticed is that my balance grew 1.5% but my equity is more or less the same, what I think is when the market starts to turn in the opposite direction then I will pick up all the loosing trades turning them into profits and at the same time controling my DD and risk. I still need alot to learn from Rap Skallion {image}
You are doing well. I have been almost desperately aggressive today. I had made a large commitment to the audusd a while ago on a different system and am trying to keep that until it bears fruit. So I have played fast and loose with some of the trading techniques I will soon show you.
closed today so far: 150p. I have adopted your color scheme on my own bed and it has reduced my confusion and sped up my reactivity enormously. Thank you.

P.S. did not have to close anything at a loss.
  • #1,689
  • Mar 11, 2014 1:57pm Mar 11, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} You are doing well. I have been almost desperately aggressive today. I had made a large commitment to the audusd a while ago on a different system and am trying to keep that until it bears fruit. So I have played fast and loose with some of the trading techniques I will soon show you. closed today so far: 150p. I have adopted your color scheme on my own bed and it has reduced my confusion and sped up my reactivity enormously. Thank you. P.S. did not have to close anything at a loss.
  • #1,690
  • Edited 6:09pm Mar 11, 2014 4:05pm | Edited 6:09pm
closed 230p today


IV: Reaping the crop.
The way this is set up, much of the crop reaps itself: When Market price reaches the Take Profit level, a signal is immediately given at the server to close the trade and within seconds, the trade is usually closed.
Most of the day you are doing other things: visit friends, court a lady (you should always pay court to your lady friends), “Bond” with the boys, write the next great symphony, Oh! Here’s one very popular with me lately: take a good, restorative nap! Use your time profitably. Once in a while drop by your screen to see how much money you’ve made. That’s fun. You may come upon a trade that is in profit.
Don’t wait. Bring up the close screen window. If price is screaming like a banshee in your direction, watch it a while as you giggle to yourself. When it starts hesitating get ready. Close it as soon as it crosses the line of ascent/descent it has drawn. Then check to see if the parents are pushing.
If they are, get right back in the trade (It’s called the “Having your Cake and eating it too”, method)
If a whole bunch of screens are in profit, work the batch. Close all but the one most in profit immediately, (unless you see a screamer in the close window). The one most in profit is most likely to be a screamer. Close it when it stops screaming. Just once, say “Heehhh!” while you close.
Now check out the parents and act accordingly.
There is thing called the traveling stop, but it is almost as bad a mistake to use it as to use stoploss.
Time and again you will realize that the price is advance way beyond what would have been take profit, but you closed at 2 p, or even break even.
When you see a screamer, you are acting like an intelligent stop loss. Instead of letting a price go up and then come all the way back down to the traveling stop loss, you can close with a better profit. Instead of letting the price go all the way up to the next entry as would the traveling stop loss. You can check things out. Most of the time it will okay to get right back in.
Now when you open the entry window and look at the tick screen and it is screaming again, hit enter, immediately close and hit the close window. If it is still screaming, you are in a nekkid trade. Don’t worry about take profit or anything else but the tick trace. When it stops screaming, and you are in profit , close it. (If you are NOT in profit, close the window, not the trade and put in a take profit).
Repeat this as often as it occurs. You are just taking money the market wants to give you. This is the most fortunate of positions. I get there maybe twice a week.
The anti-scream:
This occurs when you have ascertained that conditions are good to enter a trade (M.A.s are optimum, parents are pushing, etc.) You open the entry window and see that the ticks are heading the other way.
You should realize that the faster and farther they go, the better off you are. (Unless the pushes change, keep watch for that!) You are getting an entry at a bargain price. Let the market give it to you.
Your actions are opposite of what you would do when you see this in a close window on a trade that is in profit. There you close immediately before the trade is no longer in profit.

Getting aggressive:
When conditions are such that they indicate you should get aggressive, that does not mean increase your lot size! Instead, set the gaps closer together between entry point and last take profit. Let them partially overlap. (If you get back in after a screamer, and the situation is such that a standard tp overlaps the next entry, let it) That’s aggressive.
Increasing lot size should only be done when you have all the windows open on all the pairs you can and your principal, your seed money has grown to fit the formula (.02 lots /thousand dollars plus .01 lots).
It is very unusual not have close to half your pairs going into profit at any one time. You will find that big runs are an almost daily occurrence.

You will find yourself getting braver and brave as the bed you have prepared backs up your endeavors. Try these out. Let me know if you are are doing screamers, overlaps, or anything like that. Good luck

More to come: Handling news events; that should be interesting...

one point about closing a pair in profit:
you may have heard of the Risk: reward ratio. Some people spend a lot of time calculating this and setting up just exactly where to set them to maximize each trade. I don't maximize trades, I just do them. However I am aware of the concept as to this aspect: When you close a trade in profit, the risk/reward ratio goes to 0. the money is, so to speak, in your pocket and the risk on that trade is gone, all gone.

Now the higher your principle, the greater the debt load you can carry, the more entries you can make, the more chances you have to make money. So it is always, always, always good to increase your principle (unless you risk margin call by doing so,)
  • #1,691
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:36pm Mar 11, 2014 8:36pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
Before we do the lesson on Reaping the crop, Here is my take on kinds of moving average conditions. Also this improvement on entering pending trades: after adding 15 or 50 p to the entry point move the tp on up to a number ending in 00 or 50: Clusters of orders tend to gather there. Since a market maker is supposed to try to fill orders... etc,etc. (It's not "hunting" , it's his job). {image} This file describes moving essentially as push predictors. I would add that where the fast moving average crosses a slower moving average that is a signal...
I appreciate your effort. This chart helped me in understanding the entry and exit of your system. I will try to test your system on demo account in D1, H4 and H1 time frame but i think H1 is not suitable TF for this method.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #1,692
  • Mar 11, 2014 9:15pm Mar 11, 2014 9:15pm
Quoting aahmad29
{quote} I appreciate your effort. This chart helped me in understanding the entry and exit of your system. I will try to test your system on demo account in D1, H4 and H1 time frame but i think H1 is not suitable TF for this method.
Welcome.

Do not be afraid to tell me me your reasoning behind the time frame preference.

Remember the Poor.
  • #1,693
  • Mar 12, 2014 12:53am Mar 12, 2014 12:53am
Quoting Rap Skallion
closed 230p today IV: Reaping the crop. The way this is set up, much of the crop reaps itself: When Market price reaches the Take Profit level, a signal is immediately given at the server to close the trade and within seconds, the trade is usually closed. Most of the day you are doing other things: visit friends, court a lady (you should always pay court to your lady friends), “Bond” with the boys, write the next great symphony, Oh! Here’s one very popular with me lately: take a good, restorative nap! Use your time profitably. Once in a while drop...
Good stuff, thanks for taking the time and the energy to put a method out there. I have only closed e/a for 75 pips and a/n for 35 pips today. I have others in profit, but I am going to impose signal overlap to allow my trades to mature properly.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,694
  • Mar 12, 2014 1:53am Mar 12, 2014 1:53am
Jmn:
Considering your situation, with plenty of room to do this, a wise move: The more money in your "pocket" the better off you will be, so they say.
  • #1,695
  • Mar 12, 2014 2:05am Mar 12, 2014 2:05am
Quoting Rap Skallion
Jmn: Considering your situation, with plenty of room to do this, a wise move: The more money in your "pocket" the better off you will be, so they say.
I get that, but I noticed that I am taking 20 pip winners and allowing 100 pips losers to run......even though it would take a world war to bring me anywhere near a margin call, I just don't like the mechanics of that. So I need to let my winners run a little bit longer I think.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,696
  • Edited 4:26am Mar 12, 2014 4:02am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I get that, but I noticed that I am taking 20 pip winners and allowing 100 pips losers to run......even though it would take a world war to bring me anywhere near a margin call, I just don't like the mechanics of that. So I need to let my winners run a little bit longer I think.

This is the problem when you do not use stop loss. The winners quit and the losers do not. I have been drifting longer myself. Maybe I should consider the 50p take profit as standard, and when I sit down, I can always close in profit and do a new entry (On conditions) myself.

The important thing is to keep the balance, the first number on the line, goring faster than the debt load (profit/loss) , the last number on the line of Terminal:

longer tps work nicely with overlapping entries when conditions are right.

It also helps to keep tracking that middle moving average down with pending trades when price is going away from profit. That trade will hit just about when the Fast Moving average crosses over it: this means the pushes are going your way, the transition is (probably) moving back into optimum, and the climate has changed. Its a good time to start making money.

What an attractive idea! I usually pass by the screen every two or three hours, and this will undoubtedly leave me with more trades in profit to play scalper/screamer with.

Stay away from Margin Call, of course. The broker closes your most expensive loss first, and keeps going until you are back above 100% margin.

I am consdering shedding the most expensive one myself. it's an audusd, down from its heights, but looking to me to be slated to back up again.
gotta go: trade in proft!
  • #1,697
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:03am Mar 12, 2014 5:03am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} This is the problem when you do not use stop loss. The winners quit and the losers do not. I have been drifting longer myself. Maybe I should consider the 50p take profit as standard, and when I sit down, I can always close in profit and do a new entry (On conditions) myself. The important thing is to keep the balance, the first number on the line, goring faster than the debt load (profit/loss) , the last number on the line of Terminal: longer tps work nicely with overlapping entries when conditions are right. It also helps to keep tracking...
My worst offender is a g/n that is against me about 570 pips. I will close this trade if it goes against me 803 pips this month.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,698
  • Edited 8:17am Mar 12, 2014 7:13am | Edited 8:17am
No argument here. Key question: is it going to be pushed my way, or the other. If the MA profile suggests the other, why let it get worse.
I have converted to the 50p Tp idea (not without mishap. Lost money when an entry closed because I put the tp 50p the wrong way.



made it back by 9am est
  • #1,699
  • Edited 9:19am Mar 12, 2014 8:59am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting Rap Skallion
No argument here. Key question: is it going to be pushed my way, or the other. If the MA profile suggests the other, why let it get worse. I have converted to the 50p Tp idea (not without mishap. Lost money when an entry closed because I put the tp 50p the wrong way. made it back by 9am est
(how egotistical to quote oneself). Am now testing out the 50pip take profit scheme. Suspect I can do well with it, because of my frequent visits to the screen. Will try that first. If that works well,will try leaving it alone for 8 hours. Will report a comparison.

I am trying it live.

Interesting new concept: The sliding take profit: As you close a trade in profit and open a new entry, keep the 50p tp. as it engulfs the trade up from it, when you close out that trade, let it stay closed. You are already in profit on the first trade, have doubled it for the second trade, and are free to close it when conditions change. Re-enter or not, depending on conditions. (if the trade up is a pender, move it, unless it's okay to increase the weight, but if it is already active, you already have the weight. When that trade comes into profit, scalp it if you wish, or play screamer).

"More and more I like this Yakubovski!"
  • #1,700
  • Mar 12, 2014 12:48pm Mar 12, 2014 12:48pm
Not following exact rules, nevertheless lets see what happens
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