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  • #3,641
  • Mar 10, 2014 5:56pm Mar 10, 2014 5:56pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Often HnS are continuation patterns and we see that with the HnS that broke the neckline in October but which then reversed in a continuation of the prior move. No way of knowing of course how things will pan out this time. {image}

Hi Boy Wonder.

Thanks for your input about these 'H&S'. Formaxinvest and I were thinking aloud about the accuracy and how plentiful they are out there. You expressed what I was thinking so succinctly. Whthout them breaking the neckline they are more likely to be continuation patterns. It also makes sense in the EW theory as it would sometimes correspond to a retracement structure/pattern called a'flat'

Guys a big thank you for the quality of discussion here

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,642
  • Mar 10, 2014 6:16pm Mar 10, 2014 6:16pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Good call Olu. {image}

Thanks Srt for your comment. A break of 8350 will technically set us up for a run to 8575 (target for a 'W' chart formation)
Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,643
  • Mar 10, 2014 6:34pm Mar 10, 2014 6:34pm
NzdUsd

If the US$ has bottomed this pair should fall away
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,644
  • Mar 10, 2014 6:51pm Mar 10, 2014 6:51pm
Quoting Olu
NzdUsd If the US$ has bottomed this pair should fall away {image}
Hi Olu
As a burnt $ bull who took the easy but early and wrong trade I have been looking at the $ index very closely and I think we are close to the $ bottom (on the conventional index rather than the FXCM one) but not quite there yet. I think they are really going to push hard to take out dollar bulls and we could be in for a bit more downside on the $, most of which could be borne by euro shorts.
I would expect GBPUSD to get a double top test (1.68), AUDUSD to get a double top test (last week's high) NZDUSD to get a test at .86, EURUSD to get a test at 1.4xxx etc. before we can say the coast is clear. Just a guess, but I'm not talking my book because I'm positioned t'other way. You know how evil these markets are when trying to push the herd out of their positions.

Love the charts and analysis mate btw, I should come back here more often. Maybe we should start a hedge fund
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,645
  • Mar 10, 2014 7:00pm Mar 10, 2014 7:00pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi Olu As a burnt $ bull who took the easy but early and wrong trade I have been looking at the $ index very closely and I think we are close to the $ bottom (on the conventional index rather than the FXCM one) but not quite there yet. I think they are really going to push hard to take out dollar bulls and we could be in for a bit more downside on the $, most of which could be borne by euro shorts. I would expect GBPUSD to get a double top test (1.68), AUDUSD to get a double top test (last week's high) NZDUSD to get a test at .86, EURUSD...
Your post soooooo resonates with me. I am a $ bull as well and I too had my fair share of early trades. And each one of them looked promising till I go back to it and see that the $ has been smacked around again. I also agree that the bottom will not be a quiet thing and some fundys will make it happen. But in the absence of that event/news if the $ makes technical strides to the upside I'm in.

About starting a hedge fund. I'm in anytime. I have it in mind to start a Robin Hood kind of fund for the masses. We'll see...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,646
  • Mar 10, 2014 7:18pm Mar 10, 2014 7:18pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Your post soooooo resonates with me. I am a $ bull as well and I too had my fair share of early trades. And each one of them looked promising till I go back to it and see that the $ has been smacked around again. I also agree that the bottom will not be a quiet thing and some fundys will make it happen. But in the absence of that event/news if the $ makes technical strides to the upside I'm in. About starting a hedge fund. I'm in anytime. I have it in mind to start a Robin Hood kind of fund for the masses. We'll see... Olu
Yeah I was looking at starting a fund the other week just out of curiosity but it's uh, kinda difficult to raise the cash. But if you have some thoughts on it, I'm all ears.

EURNZD is an interesting chart that I only first looked at recently. "weak" (euro) v "strong" (nzd) as evidenced by price under all the averages, but again, we see an incipient euro bull pushing at a bear flag upper trendline right now, just itching to bust out and head for a test of the 200dma and upper trendline perhaps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,647
  • Mar 10, 2014 7:21pm Mar 10, 2014 7:21pm
Quoting Olu
NzdUsd If the US$ has bottomed this pair should fall away {image}
I think this is bullish as long as it now stays above the .8430 area. The recent move down was a retest of the breakout.
Probably wrong but that's IMHO :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,648
  • Mar 10, 2014 7:34pm Mar 10, 2014 7:34pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Yeah I was looking at starting a fund the other week just out of curiosity but it's uh, kinda difficult to raise the cash. But if you have some thoughts on it, I'm all ears. EURNZD is an interesting chart that I only first looked at recently. "weak" (euro) v "strong" (nzd) as evidenced by price under all the averages, but again, we see an incipient euro bull pushing at a bear flag upper trendline right now, just itching to bust out and head for a test of the 200dma and upper trendline perhaps. {image}

I agree Boy Wonder. The euro is just too strong at the moment. It appears to be creaming everything in its path at the moment. Fundamentally it should not be anywhere near here but the ECB appears to be managing things well. There is a general perception that all is well in investment land at the moment and the tide lifts all boats (something like that)

BTW just been stopped out at b/e +1 on my gbpaud sell
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,649
  • Mar 10, 2014 7:48pm Mar 10, 2014 7:48pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I think this is bullish as long as it now stays above the .8430 area. The recent move down was a retest of the breakout. Probably wrong but that's IMHO :-) {image}

I hear you Srt. That inverse hammer was calling out to me... BTW 8430 is nearby and well within the daily ATR of this pair. I'll be keeping an eye on this one

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,650
  • Mar 11, 2014 1:21pm Mar 11, 2014 1:21pm
For the $ bulls: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2081...ould-be-higher

As always though, only price pays, and price can lag, or lead, fundamentals, by months.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,651
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:22pm Mar 11, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting trexy123
{quote} but china news is extremely bad which means aud is as bad too?
Trexy

This is exactly what you were talking about in your post. Bad news from China and down goes Aud...
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,652
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:36pm Mar 11, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
For the $ bulls: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2081...ould-be-higher As always though, only price pays, and price can lag, or lead, fundamentals, by months.

Excellent article Boy Wonder. Good for $ bulls as you said. Why i it that the $ only rallies when there is risk aversion. It should be moving up now on its own steam. I understand the carry trade idea though. Also commodity deflation will inflate the $. Come on $ you know you want to...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,653
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:41pm Mar 11, 2014 7:41pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Trexy This is exactly what you were talking about in your post. Bad news from China and down goes Aud... {image}
This weakness made me change my weekly AUD bias from up to down.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,654
  • Mar 11, 2014 7:45pm Mar 11, 2014 7:45pm
Crude Oil is still behaving itself moving as expected
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,655
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:01pm Mar 11, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} This weakness made me change my weekly AUD bias from up to down.

Same here. Although I generally wait for the week to end before I re-assess and fully change bias. Untill the low of the massive engulfing candle is taken out anything is still posible

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,656
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:09pm Mar 11, 2014 8:09pm
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil is still behaving itself moving as expected {image}
Agree Olu.
As long as the Ukraine headlines stay out of the way, oil is headed lower.
I chickened out as I got hurt when oil spiked to 112 a few months ago on a news report. Shorted @ 108 :-(
  • #3,657
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:10pm Mar 11, 2014 8:10pm
Got Milk?

I've been playing this long. Nice uptrend. China buying like crazy.
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  • #3,658
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:13pm Mar 11, 2014 8:13pm
Sugar:

Showing some signs like it might have bottomed.

Monthly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,659
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:16pm Mar 11, 2014 8:16pm
Nat. Gas:

Monthly pinbar to short or pullback to buy?
I'm a buyer :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,660
  • Mar 11, 2014 8:21pm Mar 11, 2014 8:21pm
Coffee:

Just to remind myself not to take profits too soon :-(

Weekly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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