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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #11,721
  • Mar 10, 2014 6:09pm Mar 10, 2014 6:09pm
Quoting HedgePiglet
Hi all, I'll pop in our trading results for the day on GBP/JPY if it interests anyone? In short, with ADR's being low we are using a pretty tight 8 pip stop and 15 pip TP and take what the signals give us from the start of the European session to the close, around 5pm here in the UK. Today gave us 9 good signals and they went as follows: +15(+42), +15(+16), Break Even(+11), BE(+8), +15(+27), +15(+27), -8 (STOP), +15(+44), +15(+15) for a total of +82 for the day. I am happy to answer any questions on what we use for this, its built on the GMMA rules....

GMMA rules, what are those?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,722
  • Edited 7:11pm Mar 10, 2014 6:23pm | Edited 7:11pm
Quoting mercy seat
{quote} Jawoll ... probably a good idea to place a stop there ... Warum? Nun ja ... ### Hourly TF => : EURUSD 1.3873 (+7) ... USDCHF 0.8773 (-4) ... GBPUSD 1.6712 (+2) ... USDJPY 103.25 (+3) ... USDCAD 1.1085 (+2) ... EURJPY 143.30 (+5) ... AUDUSD 90.62 (+4) ... NZDUSD 84.57 (+2) ... GBPJPY 172.52 (+4) ... GBPAUD 1.8441 (±0) ... 22h55 CET ... Friday 07. Mar 2014 Hmm ... ja ... not in a bear territory as well atm ... but next hurdle is in striking distance ... upside structures with mild potential at the present stage ... but we are maybe prior to...
Instead of warning him his stop could get hit and he might probably give profits away, nevertheless you recommend him to set his stop to BE. 176.30 and 180.55? You have no idea where you are and what is going on. What a redudant post and your reasoning is "Nunja"("Well.."). ? Kill yourself noob.

@SirMcPip
Take risk, protect profits. There is indeed a chance 170.80/60 or/and 169.60/20 gets tested before any up-movement and btw, out of no-stop to BE, I dont get the logic?
If you wanna go long-term, @ down-weeks => protect profits, @up-weeks => add to exposure
Attached Image
  • #11,723
  • Mar 10, 2014 7:00pm Mar 10, 2014 7:00pm
Much at stake in a few hours. Fears of a China slowdown and a change in global growth have put jitters into the market. In the background we have the Crimea Referendum over the weekend to add to the turmoil. There are factors in the Japanese data that can be cited as positive and on track so the expectation of the BOJ to increase the QE is slight even in the face of the consumption tax at 5% to 8% coming online next month. That tax along with everything else that is going on will unravel the Nikkei and we can kiss long positions on GBP/JPY goodbye unless we hear some strong language that the 10 Billion more per month is on the way.

Do they see the train wreck coming in the next 4 weeks? Do the men with the guts in the BOJ have the votes to jump start this thing right now in the face of danger or will they at least have the permission to promise MOAR! in April? Between now and April a lot of Yen carry can be unwound so we need some heroes in Tokyo today. Will the spear of Shinzo Abe hit the mark or will the men wimp out and start back peddling, stating the economy is moving along and they have to see the effects of the tax and data has been okay, blah, blah, blah. Stay tuned.

If so I'm going to hold this short (75 pips so far) and squeeze the last bearish pip out of this pair and that will take weeks. The Russians are not coming, they are already here. FOR THE GLORY OF THE EMPEROR AND JAPAN! SONNO JOI!
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,724
  • Mar 10, 2014 8:02pm Mar 10, 2014 8:02pm
Attached Image
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,725
  • Mar 10, 2014 8:18pm Mar 10, 2014 8:18pm
im wondering if UJ will top 103.8 today or fall after the rate decision
  • #11,726
  • Mar 10, 2014 8:40pm Mar 10, 2014 8:40pm
Rates have nothing to do with this at all. Zero
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,727
  • Mar 10, 2014 8:43pm Mar 10, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting Temujin
Rates have nothing to do with this at all. Zero

Think we can and probably will go lower on UJ/Nikkei, but probably short lived. Too much printing going on by the BOJ and other central banks. The money has gotta go somewhere and it has to come out of somewhere.

Sell yen buy Nikkei is going to be one of the better positions of the year IMO and any sell off on UJ/Nikkei in coming days will present great opportunity.

What do I know tho, I suck.
  • #11,728
  • Mar 10, 2014 9:16pm Mar 10, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision points for calendar week EU(11)/US(11) for GBP/JPY: Map: (1) 177.20/00 (2) 175.60/40 (3) 174.80/60 optimal TP (long) (4) 173.20/00 (5) 171.60/40 (Sweet Spot) (6) 170.80/00 Short TP + Buyback or add for continuation (7) 169.60/20 Second Buyback etc. (8) 168.20/00 (9) 166.40/20 (10) 165.20/00 Actual decision point @ 50% of both decision points @ 172.00/71.80
Thanks for levels Fx-ray, they appear similar to mine

Now, at 0200GMT prices should try to go above 173.00.

For shorts, I would target 170.3/170.00, valid till 0200GMT next day.

Personal Bias: Long towards 173.00. If it hits by US open, short may be in play, depending on P.A during US open.
  • #11,729
  • Mar 10, 2014 10:01pm Mar 10, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting eNjoyPips
Immediate Levels: For shorts; 171.70/171.80, 170.8/171.00. For Longs; 173.00/173.10, 173.8/174.00 Current bias, short towards 171.7. Rejection of support would mean resuming uptrend. Lets see Edit: 171.60 changed to 171.70, and 171.70 changed to 171.80

Jawoll ...


;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #11,730
  • Mar 10, 2014 10:04pm Mar 10, 2014 10:04pm
No change in Monetary Policy. Statements are still coming in.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,731
  • Mar 10, 2014 10:05pm Mar 10, 2014 10:05pm
Hourly TF => : EURUSD 1.3876 (+6) ... USDCHF 0.8777 (-6) ... GBPUSD 1.6647 (-2) ... USDJPY 103.28 (+4) ... USDCAD 1.1108 (+3) ... EURJPY 143.33 (+4) ... AUDUSD 90.26 (-2) ... NZDUSD 84.74 (+4) ... GBPJPY 171.92 (-1) ... GBPAUD 1.8447 (±0) ... 22h55 CET ... Monday 10. Mar 2014


Hmm ... ja ... still not in a bear territory atm ... but neutralized and next hurdle is in striking distance ... upside structures dampened with mild negative potential at the present stage ... and we are (maybe) prior to a possible turning-point ... further advance could start to falter soon again ...

If that is the case ... then sooner or later it can fall down into the bin again ... which could give us 20 bignumbers with ease then from here ... Attachment

Weekly Trend is still up ... daily Trend is weakening and another attempt to cross 173.58 with confirmation at 174.25 is needed in order to maintain the upside ...

Its critical supports would come into play in 170.18 - 169.80 zone ... and any cross of below 169.10 would re-open the path to the downside ...

GBP/JPY :

From a certain distance ... no continuation unless a cross above hurdles in 174.25 - 176.30 and 180.55 zone ... which is considered as a tough area atm ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #11,732
  • Mar 10, 2014 10:07pm Mar 10, 2014 10:07pm
The vote was unanimous, economic recovery is moderate. Assessment of the economy is unchanged. Spending has also increased.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,733
  • Mar 10, 2014 10:20pm Mar 10, 2014 10:20pm
Seems the QE program in Japan is working. So far no sign of more easing unless Haruhiko Kuroda hints at it later on at the press conference in a few hours. So now the government will get good revenues from the new consumption tax. May effect spending considerably, we will see. This is no huge catalyst for a weaker yen at all.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,734
  • Mar 10, 2014 10:30pm Mar 10, 2014 10:30pm
Took 72 pips from my last sell order now closed, initiated another sell at the market, 171.97. Waiting on Kuroda to change my mind.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,735
  • Mar 11, 2014 12:06am Mar 11, 2014 12:06am
Hi eveyone, my first post in FF so be gentle with me.
I trade this market live and just started following this thread for some mental company.
I have seen lots of levels posted here about where the market will or won't go and have been going back in the thread to see what methodology folks are using but of course it is many and varied so I thought I would contribute a chart I have been using as my master for this market.
I trade the H4 short term and reduce the price levels down accordingly which are usually close to support and resistance which I would favour.
I don't trade fundamentals but I do trade news activity at double bottoms or tops.
The chart always tell it's own story but I have taken the liberty of adding a line at the end which would be the normal path for it to follow but any different would be a clue to a possible reversal.
I can see why some talk of 180 but I can see the other levels too like 166.

Cheers
Ken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY Daily patterns and price levels.JPG Size: 292 KB
  • #11,736
  • Mar 11, 2014 1:03am Mar 11, 2014 1:03am
Welcome Kbfp. Kuroda will determine the levels in the next 27 minutes. You stay neutral to see the possibilities, I like that.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,737
  • Mar 11, 2014 1:37am Mar 11, 2014 1:37am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote}@SirMcPip Take risk, protect profits. There is indeed a chance 170.80/60 or/and 169.60/20 gets tested before any up-movement and btw, out of no-stop to BE, I dont get the logic? If you wanna go long-term, @ down-weeks => protect profits, @up-weeks => add to exposure {image}
So what is the logic that you dont understand? I believe that the markets could dive even deeper than 169,20 before heading back up if 170 is breached at this point. So cant i reenter like anyone else if i get stopped out? Logic is a very subjective thing.
  • #11,738
  • Mar 11, 2014 1:55am Mar 11, 2014 1:55am
Not seeing any news contrary to the Monetary Policy statement earlier. Still a sell to me. Have a good one.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,739
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:34am Mar 11, 2014 2:34am
Quoting Temujin
Not seeing any news contrary to the Monetary Policy statement earlier. Still a sell to me. Have a good one.
169.40 should come before upside, actually I am betting much more than 169.40 but lets see
  • #11,740
  • Mar 11, 2014 2:38am Mar 11, 2014 2:38am
Quoting SirMcPip
{quote} So what is the logic that you dont understand? I believe that the markets could dive even deeper than 169,20 before heading back up if 170 is breached at this point. So cant i reenter like anyone else if i get stopped out? Logic is a very subjective thing.
sir,it is a bull market.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
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