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  • #11,701
  • Mar 9, 2014 11:50pm Mar 9, 2014 11:50pm
Quoting delpiero
{quote} what are the fundamentals for 167? why? I dont see any reason. it will be 180 very quickly. by the end of 2014 we may see 200.
Delpiero come back here and please tell me what kind of data, risk trends or any kind of market dynamics you are seeing to warrant 180 very quickly. I will close my short position and go long immediately. I've been wrong many times and can change my mind real quick given the right reason.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,702
  • Mar 9, 2014 11:58pm Mar 9, 2014 11:58pm
Quoting SirMcPip
{quote} Time: 05:08 PM GMT STOPS MOVED TO BE AT 170,00

Jawoll ... probably a good idea to place a stop there ...

Warum?

Nun ja ...

###

Hourly TF => : EURUSD 1.3873 (+7) ... USDCHF 0.8773 (-4) ... GBPUSD 1.6712 (+2) ... USDJPY 103.25 (+3) ... USDCAD 1.1085 (+2) ... EURJPY 143.30 (+5) ... AUDUSD 90.62 (+4) ... NZDUSD 84.57 (+2) ... GBPJPY 172.52 (+4) ... GBPAUD 1.8441 (±0) ... 22h55 CET ... Friday 07. Mar 2014


Hmm ... ja ... not in a bear territory as well atm ... but next hurdle is in striking distance ... upside structures with mild potential at the present stage ... but we are maybe prior to a possible turning-point ...

If that is the case ... then down into the bin again ... which could give us 20 bignumbers with ease then from here ...

GBP/JPY :

From a certain distance ... no continuation unless a cross above hurdles in 176.30 and 180.55 zone ... which is a tough area atm ...



;-|
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-03-07_22h55_ GBPJPY _ weekly _ (2spm) barchart (EMA55 + 1100x800).PNG Size: 19 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #11,703
  • Mar 9, 2014 11:59pm Mar 9, 2014 11:59pm
Quoting Temujin
Delpiero, in my post that you quoted I've given the fundamentals for my case of 167. What are the fundamentals you can provide regarding an exchange rate of 180 Japanese yen to 1 British pound? It's already risen 950 pips from the last emerging market mini flash crash. The bottom on 2/5/14 and the high last Friday. So what is the case for another 750 pips from the price right now in Tokyo?
First of all, GBP/JPY has a history of 200s. It will definitly reach there again. GBP is getting stronger. USD is week. But GBP/JPY is rising. At the end of MArch, when FED speaks again, you will see a second reason (USD will rise too). And third reason: JPY easing started 1,5 years ago right. But the real program started in 2014, just a few months ago. And it will continue until end of 2014. I suggest you to check Japan centrel bank's declarations on their website.

This pair rised 1000 pips in 1 day last summer. 1000 pips in 1 day. To get to 180 is not a big deal for this pair. People always make mistake on GBP/JPY. When it drops 100-150 pips, they say 'oh its the down trend, sell sell sell!!!' No. 150 pips down doesnt mean anything with this pair because it rises 500 pips in 1 hour, then it drops 100-150 pips. You have buy on that dips. If you sell, you have to wait 2-3 years believe me. It won't go to 167 anymore I guess. If soomething extraordinary happens and it drops to 167, dont worry it will come to 173 in 2-3 days max.

You never sell if the trend is upward. You buy at dips...
  • #11,704
  • Mar 10, 2014 12:27am Mar 10, 2014 12:27am
I sure hope so my friend, 180 would be nice. GBP is getting stronger we just need another catalyst to get it past this area. It's a forward looking market by 6 months so speculation just explodes and then it rises to these values even before the bonds are actually bought. The day you are referring to is APR 3, 2013. 1,800 pips in 3 days. Well I certainly hope I don't get stuck in a 2-3 year trade that's for sure. We need a sign from the BOJ this week that more easing is on the way because this new sales tax, yuck.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,705
  • Mar 10, 2014 12:38am Mar 10, 2014 12:38am
The ideal situation would be the BOJ anticipating the effect the tax would have on the economy and announcing more easing this week to counter that effect. It's not expected by many analysts at all but it could happen.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,706
  • Edited 7:06am Mar 10, 2014 6:29am | Edited 7:06am
Immediate Levels:

For shorts; 171.70/171.80, 170.8/171.00.

For Longs; 173.00/173.10, 173.8/174.00

Current bias, short towards 171.7.

Rejection of support would mean resuming uptrend.

Lets see

Edit: 171.60 changed to 171.70, and 171.70 changed to 171.80
  • #11,707
  • Mar 10, 2014 7:11am Mar 10, 2014 7:11am
About 60 pips on my sell order so far. Will hold it past the BOJ announcement into Wednesday at least.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,708
  • Mar 10, 2014 7:14am Mar 10, 2014 7:14am
Quoting Temujin
About 60 pips on my sell order so far. Will hold it past the BOJ announcement into Wednesday at least.
Hold till Ukraine Referendum, not likely to run much before that. March 16/17 is the d day for mkts. What would the stand of West on Russia's capture of Crimea and Crimea going all out to get annexed into Russia. Fed Meet following that as bonus.
  • #11,709
  • Mar 10, 2014 9:27am Mar 10, 2014 9:27am
Today I shorted many JPY pairs: GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY and NZDJPY.

All of them approached important supply zones, charts were telling me to sell.
  • #11,710
  • Mar 10, 2014 10:40am Mar 10, 2014 10:40am
Quoting Noob Trader
{quote} Hold till Ukraine Referendum, not likely to run much before that. March 16/17 is the d day for mkts. What would the stand of West on Russia's capture of Crimea and Crimea going all out to get annexed into Russia. Fed Meet following that as bonus.
Yes, I don't think there is much the west can do and Putin has an agenda to restore the glory of Russia. He is very far from the same page as the EU and U.S. more like in a different universe of thought. He knows this uprising was engineered and he won't bow. This market could be headed for an incredible risk averse event that will cause it to sell off with panic velocity. 75 pips now as GJ is going down with the DOW Jones.

We are thinking the same Noob Trader, I also read after 5 years of QE the U.S. Fed will not put the brakes on the taper and especially not after that NFP print. Markets are 6 months forward looking. What do we have to look forward to with with huge, fat overvalued stocks and landmines of global risk? The Bank of Japan is the only hope GBP/JPY has got but maybe not with this meeting, we will have to wait and see.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,711
  • Edited 12:54pm Mar 10, 2014 12:44pm | Edited 12:54pm
Decision points for calendar week EU(11)/US(11) for GBP/JPY:

Map:
(1) 177.20/00
(2) 175.60/40
(3) 174.80/60 optimal TP (long)
(4) 173.20/00
(5) 171.60/40 (Sweet Spot)
(6) 170.80/00 Short TP + Buyback or add for continuation
(7) 169.60/20 Second Buyback etc.
(8) 168.20/00
(9) 166.40/20
(10) 165.20/00

Actual decision point @ 50% of both decision points @ 172.00/71.80
  • #11,712
  • Mar 10, 2014 1:03pm Mar 10, 2014 1:03pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Decision points for calendar week EU(11)/US(11) for GBP/JPY: Map: (1) 177.20/00 (2) 175.60/40 (3) 174.80/60 optimal TP (long) (4) 173.20/00 (5) 171.60/40 (Sweet Spot) (6) 170.80/00 Short TP + Buyback or add for continuation (7) 169.60/20 Second Buyback etc. (8) 168.20/00 (9) 166.40/20 (10) 165.20/00 Actual decision point @ 50% of both decision points @ 172.00/71.80
Extremely useful. Thank you so much.
  • #11,713
  • Mar 10, 2014 1:13pm Mar 10, 2014 1:13pm
Hi all,

I'll pop in our trading results for the day on GBP/JPY if it interests anyone? In short, with ADR's being low we are using a pretty tight 8 pip stop and 15 pip TP and take what the signals give us from the start of the European session to the close, around 5pm here in the UK.

Today gave us 9 good signals and they went as follows: +15(+42), +15(+16), Break Even(+11), BE(+8), +15(+27), +15(+27), -8 (STOP), +15(+44), +15(+15) for a total of +82 for the day.

I am happy to answer any questions on what we use for this, its built on the GMMA rules.

HP
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In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #11,714
  • Mar 10, 2014 1:46pm Mar 10, 2014 1:46pm
Time to buy?
  • #11,715
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:14pm Mar 10, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting jimi
Time to buy?
I am waiting for it to go deeper. I look for a definite rejection of an area. I prefer to see price accelerate into an area, and then reject with force. That shows me there is a good bunch of orders at that point. I am always wary when price saunters into an area of interest. But that might just be me....
  • #11,716
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:17pm Mar 10, 2014 2:17pm
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} I am waiting for it to go deeper. I look for a definite rejection of an area. I prefer to see price accelerate into an area, and then reject with force. That shows me there is a good bunch of orders at that point. I am always wary when price saunters into an area of interest. But that might just be me....
Although I guess you could say that the first penetration had some momentum, but the retest still looks a bit slack for me...
  • #11,717
  • Mar 10, 2014 3:15pm Mar 10, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting jimi
Time to buy?

Done

G/L
  • #11,718
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:02pm Mar 10, 2014 4:02pm
Focus on london session & ny session. No reason to jump the gun here whatsoever. I dont trade illiquit periods.
  • #11,719
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:49pm Mar 10, 2014 4:49pm
Break out of consolidation and based on similarity target ~176.800

Immediate target 172.800 followed by retest of 173.630.


Quoting caldera
Here is my current view. We've had a strong uptrend starting 4 Feb - 18 Feb. Currently the market is in consolidation mode forming a textbook bullish flag. The market should continue the uptrend but it will probably require some GBP positive news to do it. There is some important news coming up next week (Manufacturing/Construction/Services PMIs and the Bank Rate and Asset Purchases). If the data fails to meet expectations then there will either be further consolidation or the price will violate the bullish flag.
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  • #11,720
  • Mar 10, 2014 5:24pm Mar 10, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting FX-Ray
Focus on london session & ny session. No reason to jump the gun here whatsoever. I dont trade illiquit periods.
Agreed 100%
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
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