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NZD/USD

  • #3,501
  • Edited 1:07am Mar 8, 2014 12:44am | Edited 1:07am
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} lol Around I only make decisions purely on Techs as well lol. I just think that when I read NZD is going to go up bc of rate hike and bc the data is so strong and we don't take the entire picture into view I just wanted to offer another perspective with the understanding that if it goes down ppl are able to see the other side of the coin as well. Great trades and I hope they work out for u
Thanks, I just think next week thing is too obvious and possible give off AUDNZD a good start for a long bull(not sure on NU side, but a going down back to 0.82-0.81 for "sure").

This is the only "sure bet" I see next week, might be counting EURCHF as well. all other USD pairs are just puzzles me.

One thing confuses me is, isn't this trick has been played pretty much.... every single time on history?

Apparently the whole market have gone crazy.

and ppl still don't and trade what they expect not what will happen...
  • #3,502
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:48am Mar 8, 2014 12:48am
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} lol Around I only make decisions purely on Techs as well lol. I just think that when I read NZD is going to go up bc of rate hike and bc the data is so strong and we don't take the entire picture into view I just wanted to offer another perspective with the understanding that if it goes down ppl are able to see the other side of the coin as well. Great trades and I hope they work out for u
tpo be honest, I am actually expecting to see a huge fall for NU below 0.8 this year, not this time tho. The market has been overly optimistic for too long and when it realizes NZD is not worth longing anymore, I would expect to see what AU did last year. This is especially likely to happen since NZD has such high interest rates no matterwhat (btw I'm waiting for opportunity long AU this year )
  • #3,503
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:49am Mar 8, 2014 12:49am
Quoting ARouND
{quote} Thanks, I just think next week thing is too obvious and possible give off AUDNZD a good start for a long bull(not sure on NU side, but a going down back to 0.82-0.81 for sure). This is the only "sure bet" I see next week, might be counting EURCHF as well. all other USD pairs are just puzzles me. One thing confuses me is, isn't this trick has been played pretty much.... every single time on history? Apparently the whole market have gone crazy. and ppl still don't and trade what they expect not what will happen...
I'm actually short NZD/CHF and long GBP/NZD lets see how they workout
  • #3,504
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:56am Mar 8, 2014 12:56am
Quoting ARouND
{quote} Thanks, I just think next week thing is too obvious and possible give off AUDNZD a good start for a long bull(not sure on NU side, but a going down back to 0.82-0.81 for sure). This is the only "sure bet" I see next week, might be counting EURCHF as well. all other USD pairs are just puzzles me. One thing confuses me is, isn't this trick has been played pretty much.... every single time on history? Apparently the whole market have gone crazy. and ppl still don't and trade what they expect not what will happen...
nothing is ever sure my man
  • #3,505
  • Mar 8, 2014 1:00am Mar 8, 2014 1:00am
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} I'm actually short NZD/CHF and long GBP/NZD lets see how they workout
hmmmm, I dont know, I would choose at least not CHF if holding more than a week. If you see EURCHF you will have an idea.

The problem for me is I have no idea where EU and GU is going, to me(BASED ON MY SYSTEM, SO PLEASE DO NOT BE INFLUENCE. I MENTION JUST FOR THE SAKE OF EXCHANGING IDEAS) EUR hits the my system's quarterly resist and won't be bulling again unless it breaks Friday's high, actually I suspect it will keep swing for the whole week and then bull up again.
A small chance it will directly go down to 1.37 even worse but let time proves. I won't take any position unless I see a clear Bearish signal which is very unlikely to happen, and no bull for me since at most 200 pips with high risk interests me little.

For GU it's just at it's all-time-high. It might breaks the high but before it happens, I do not want to bet it will continues to bull.

But as you said, with proper position manage and risk calculation, why not? just follow your systyem
  • #3,506
  • Mar 8, 2014 1:03am Mar 8, 2014 1:03am
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} nothing is ever sure my man
Sure! Hence the air quote.

I might be wrong, but so far for around a year it never fails me once on those huge risk events. Including all CB's decisions and all NFB (failed Jan. one bcoz of a reverse, but got it right in the first 15 min.)

My logic is similar to yours, with price action confirms.
  • #3,507
  • Mar 8, 2014 1:06am Mar 8, 2014 1:06am
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} nothing is ever sure my man
I do agree it's too early to say NU is going back to 0.82-0.8 zone.
Let's see what kiwi will do. If it disappoints the market so bad then very likely it will.

The sure money is at the day of decision.
  • #3,508
  • Mar 8, 2014 1:12am Mar 8, 2014 1:12am
Quoting ARouND
{quote} hmmmm, I dont know, I would choose at least not CHF if holding more than a week. If you see EURCHF you will have an idea. The problem for me is I have no idea where EU and GU is going, to me(BASED ON MY SYSTEM, SO PLEASE DO NOT BE INFLUENCE. I MENTION JUST FOR THE SAKE OF EXCHANGING IDEAS) EUR hits the my system's quarterly resist and won't be bulling again unless it breaks Friday's high, actually I suspect it will keep swing for the whole week and then bull up again. A small chance it will directly go down to 1.37 even worse but let time...
u make great points we will see I think EUR and GBP are up in the air but I cant see them selling off faster then Kiwi IF it sells off but thats the beauty of these non related crosses when u hit big u hit home runs with huge swings and huge profits and again if I'm wrong I need to re-evaluate I look forward to ur post Around u seem like a smart trader
  • #3,509
  • Mar 8, 2014 1:14am Mar 8, 2014 1:14am
Quoting ARouND
{quote} I do agree it's too early to say NU is going back to 0.82-0.8 zone. Let's see what kiwi will do. If it disappoints the market so bad then very likely it will. The sure money is at the day of decision.
the signs are encouraging
  • #3,510
  • Mar 8, 2014 1:24am Mar 8, 2014 1:24am
NZDUSD had broken the range up side at about 0.8390~0.8400.
I would expect there is bigger chance that it will go up higher.
However, there is resistance at about 0.8510, which may cause it retrace a little bit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,511
  • Edited 11:34pm Mar 8, 2014 11:21pm | Edited 11:34pm
Quoting wqking
NZDUSD had broken the range up side at about 0.8390~0.8400. I would expect there is bigger chance that it will go up higher. However, there is resistance at about 0.8510, which may cause it retrace a little bit. {image}
might be the statement of RBNZ would be a nice choice to break the uptrend.

for large banks and huge funds,that's required to stop chasing kiwi and realize their profits on long position.
no other killers to me but emotion
  • #3,512
  • Mar 9, 2014 2:55pm Mar 9, 2014 2:55pm
That four hour chart tho!
  • #3,513
  • Mar 9, 2014 4:21pm Mar 9, 2014 4:21pm
Currently the pair is an uptrend with price overbought and rejected by resistance forming a possible double top.

On Friday the better than expected non-farm payrolls set the tone for more taper to come and the NZD/USD sold off of resistance pretty hard. Along with the horrible trade balance numbers out of China Friday evening look for a test of the nearest support in the 0.84000 area to come.

Inserted Video
  • #3,514
  • Mar 9, 2014 9:21pm Mar 9, 2014 9:21pm
NZD bank reports from Westpac & BNZ:
Westpac Weekly Commentary on the NZD
Today's BNZ Markets Wrap & Strategy
Westpac's Weekly FX & IR Outlook (NZD)

Showtime for the RBNZ this week! 25bps rate hike priced in..
  • #3,515
  • Mar 10, 2014 12:53am Mar 10, 2014 12:53am
Gidday NZ

Anybody trading AUD/NZ

Played this all wrong

I was using it as a small hedge

Thought we would see a bounce back up again
  • #3,516
  • Mar 10, 2014 1:40am Mar 10, 2014 1:40am
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday NZ Anybody trading AUD/NZ Played this all wrong I was using it as a small hedge Thought we would see a bounce back up again

Gidday elite

I am trading AUDNZD, my EA took all shorts and holding, and will close one by one.

For now AUDNZD will mimic AUDUSD, as the NZDUSD is holding support and trading flat.


usasa.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 031014_AUDNZD.jpg Size: 115 KB
Weigh well output the loss and gain And proper action ascertain
  • #3,517
  • Mar 10, 2014 1:49am Mar 10, 2014 1:49am
Hi USASA

You mention E A

Does it work for you

Thinking about trying one out

Do you have it running all pairs etc
  • #3,518
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:07am Mar 10, 2014 2:07am
Quoting eliteincome
Hi USASA You mention E A Does it work for you Thinking about trying one out Do you have it running all pairs etc
Hi Elite,

I have it running on all pairs correlated, except CAD. The EA is not using a SL, so I am still testing.

usasa.
Weigh well output the loss and gain And proper action ascertain
  • #3,519
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:16am Mar 10, 2014 2:16am
Quoting usasa
{quote} Hi Elite, I have it running on all pairs correlated, except CAD. The EA is not using a SL, so I am still testing. usasa.
Being NZ time zones etc

Not so easy with work,an getting in touch with people

when things are not working out

I would look at a micro with $10k

Small trades etc

Which one are you using

PM me if you want
  • #3,520
  • Mar 10, 2014 8:09pm Mar 10, 2014 8:09pm
Hello everyone. Hows everyone doing?
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