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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #11,681
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:00am Mar 7, 2014 10:00am
Ukraine troubles returns ? Referendum on March 16 to join Russia, Putin to retaliate any sanctions imposed on Russia... JPY being safe heaven in this case can pulled down the pair
  • #11,682
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:13am Mar 7, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Noob Trader
Ukraine troubles returns ? Referendum on March 16 to join Russia, Putin to retaliate any sanctions imposed on Russia... JPY being safe heaven in this case can pulled down the pair
If something happens to lift the JPY, that would be a major game changer to consider. Not impossible as you said but it would be irresponsible to go against your charts before any evidence that something has changed on the JPY side...and even now Japan is slowly doing its job so big chances there in the medium term.
  • #11,683
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:37am Mar 7, 2014 10:37am
Quoting pabloski
Will watch PA @ .60 to see how long to ride it.
Closed at that level.
  • #11,684
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:40am Mar 7, 2014 10:40am
Quoting eNjoyPips
For those who took long, congrats. Pair reached 173.5xx. To look forward to next week, next support would be 171.95 should pair fall, followed by 170.8. [For shorts] - I took short from 173.3. On the opposite side, if 4 hour closes above 173.7, next would be 174.85, being swing high. [For longs] Hope these helps. Have a good weekend all. edit: short from 173.3, not 170.3. edit2: looking to close at 172 region.
Closed short at 172.55.

Will come up with supports and resistances next week.

Happy weekend all
  • #11,685
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:04pm Mar 7, 2014 11:04pm
Yep, this is the best place for the play by play.........I likey
  • #11,686
  • Mar 8, 2014 5:59am Mar 8, 2014 5:59am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Yep, this is the best place for the play by play.........I likey
yeahMonday will probably decide direction for the next week or so, looking forward to it.
  • #11,687
  • Mar 9, 2014 11:12am Mar 9, 2014 11:12am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Yep, this is the best place for the play by play.........I likey
I think so as well because there are a few moving parts that could start colliding with each other. Ukraine, the S&P levels, the China credit cracks that are showing. They just reported a trade deficit, how weird. The Fed taper continues but the BOJ is speculated to ease more at the April meeting or sometime in the summer. Most say at this meeting in a day they are looking for policy to stay pat. Sales tax takes effect April 1.

Another attempt past 173.50 and a triple top at 174.50 or a new bullish channel? Data coming that I suspect will be supportive to the yen in less than 8 hours. That would be too cool if the BOJ anticipates savers will retreat back to their frugal ways upon initiating this sales tax and so they increase the stimulus tomorrow but most think not. This week will be interesting, a few big themes opposing risk trends and others like that blow out 175,000 jobs Friday lending support for more risk appetite. My thinking is becoming more bearish until I hear something really solid about that new easing increase. Have a fun and profitable trading week everybody.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,688
  • Mar 9, 2014 2:20pm Mar 9, 2014 2:20pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...e-open-trading
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,689
  • Mar 9, 2014 2:32pm Mar 9, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting Temujin
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...e-open-trading

hope it hold till open, else back 2 pavillion...
  • #11,690
  • Mar 9, 2014 3:18pm Mar 9, 2014 3:18pm
Hello, im wondering one thing, maybe somemone has the answer..

I have still a short position open on GPY/JPY from last week with TP 172, i now see that the open price was below that but is now at 172.25.

My broker opens in 2 hours and my question is.. is my trade already closed in the market and i will see it when my broker opens or will be my order still open assuming the price remains above my tp...

just wondering..
Online Prop Firms are not the solution
  • #11,691
  • Mar 9, 2014 3:41pm Mar 9, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting pungggi
Hello, im wondering one thing, maybe somemone has the answer.. I have still a short position open on GPY/JPY from last week with TP 172, i now see that the open price was below that but is now at 172.25. My broker opens in 2 hours and my question is.. is my trade already closed in the market and i will see it when my broker opens or will be my order still open assuming the price remains above my tp... just wondering..
nope your trade will not trigger until broker opens trading... So at the time of opening, prevailing rate will be considered. So if it trading @ 172.10 at the time of ur broker opening, then your trade remains active and not closed as pre-mkt quotes were trading.
  • #11,692
  • Mar 9, 2014 3:48pm Mar 9, 2014 3:48pm
Ok, thank you!
Online Prop Firms are not the solution
  • #11,693
  • Mar 9, 2014 6:20pm Mar 9, 2014 6:20pm
Looks like 180 coming soon
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #11,694
  • Mar 9, 2014 6:39pm Mar 9, 2014 6:39pm
That looks so cool to see 180 posted......160's........one more time.......and I'm spewing.! chunks
ETA....I'll hurl
  • #11,695
  • Edited 9:03pm Mar 9, 2014 8:34pm | Edited 9:03pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
That looks so cool to see 180 posted......160's........one more time.......and I'm spewing.! chunks ETA....I'll hurl

What are you talking about? 180?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,696
  • Mar 9, 2014 9:58pm Mar 9, 2014 9:58pm
I'll try to call this one here; The Bank of Japan will not waste additional stimulus without first knowing the effects of the new sales tax on the economy. So an announcement for more at the meeting in a few days is very unlikely. As March 16 approaches and a vote to annex Ukraine to Russia grows near tensions will also increase dramatically. Risk aversion will not only occur because of Ukraine but also current market levels. I've taken a short position on GBP/JPY at the market open at 172.63 and I expect to see 170 or lower this week because of the factors I mentioned here and previous posts. I also think banks will front run the market long positions by first flushing out all longs with risk off sentiment that they exaggerate because of global risk events. Then they can position themselves well for the added stimulus from the BOJ in a couple months. Someone once told me in 2012 that Nomura had a forecast of 178 on GBP/JPY. I totally believe that but not without seeing 167 first.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,697
  • Mar 9, 2014 10:26pm Mar 9, 2014 10:26pm
Russia will capture Crimea & east Ukraine parts. Only mode of operation is unknown... Annexation would be lethal for market while puppet government would be consolation.
  • #11,698
  • Mar 9, 2014 10:42pm Mar 9, 2014 10:42pm
Quoting Temujin
I'll try to call this one here; The Bank of Japan will not waste additional stimulus without first knowing the effects of the new sales tax on the economy. So an announcement for more at the meeting in a few days is very unlikely. As March 16 approaches and a vote to annex Ukraine to Russia grows near tensions will also increase dramatically. Risk aversion will not only occur because of Ukraine but also current market levels. I've taken a short position on GBP/JPY at the market open at 172.63 and I expect to see 170 or lower this week because of...
what are the fundamentals for 167? why? I dont see any reason. it will be 180 very quickly. by the end of 2014 we may see 200.
  • #11,699
  • Mar 9, 2014 11:15pm Mar 9, 2014 11:15pm
Delpiero, in my post that you quoted I've given the fundamentals for my case of 167. What are the fundamentals you can provide regarding an exchange rate of 180 Japanese yen to 1 British pound? It's already risen 950 pips from the last emerging market mini flash crash. The bottom on 2/5/14 and the high last Friday. So what is the case for another 750 pips from the price right now in Tokyo?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,700
  • Mar 9, 2014 11:45pm Mar 9, 2014 11:45pm
Quoting Noob Trader
Russia will capture Crimea & east Ukraine parts. Only mode of operation is unknown... Annexation would be lethal for market while puppet government would be consolation.
My thoughts exactly. GBP/JPY is risk sensitive and there are so many things going on now, mostly bad things to be long at a price level this high. China is experiencing some corporate bond defaults, sanctions upon Russia won't be good for the EU economy either. In the blink of an eye the market could start to recognize risks as the situation escalates. Stock prices are reaching their full valuation after a 5 year run and for some reason GJ seems to be tied to the DOW, Nikkei and FTSE. Another reason is that the BOJ easing program is working. The program is 16 months old now and has already become effective. Prices are rising as Japan is coming out of a deflation environment, the Nikkei is up, people are spending. What is the need for another stimulus round unless the sales tax causes these people to suddenly stop spending and that will take some time to access.

There is however something against my case for a lower rate; "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." ---John Maynard Keynes
Be humble or be humbled.
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