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  • #521
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:38am Mar 7, 2014 2:38am
Price Relativism: followup (from here)

Euro Yen vs S&P 500 (continuous)

Heads Up

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ to ESM Price Relative H4 03.07.04.png Size: 45 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #522
  • Mar 9, 2014 1:54am Mar 9, 2014 1:54am
Gold: update (from here)

"...Ground control to Major Tom,
your circuits dead,
there's something wrong,
can you hear me Major Tom?..."
- David Bowie

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Daily 03.09.14.png Size: 74 KB

note: timing only
note 2: there was an H4 pivot on Friday, which hit spot on (shown here), but the pattern is not complete yet, therefore I will update it later.
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #523
  • Mar 9, 2014 1:57pm Mar 9, 2014 1:57pm
Some color on the situation in Ukraine:

Caspian Report: Russia's leverages on Ukraine
Inserted Video
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #524
  • Mar 9, 2014 2:06pm Mar 9, 2014 2:06pm
How The Economic Machine Works - Ray Dalio (founder of Bridgewater, the worlds largest Hedge Fund)

Inserted Video


Ray Dalio (born August 1, 1949) is an American businessman and founder of the investment firm Bridgewater Associates.[1] In 2012, Dalio appeared on the annual Time 100 list of the 100 most influential people in the world.[2] In 2011 and 2012 he was listed by Bloomberg Markets as one of the 50 Most Influential people. Institutional Investor’s Alpha ranked him No. 2 on their 2012 Rich List.[3][4]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Dalio
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #525
  • Edited 5:07pm Mar 9, 2014 3:32pm | Edited 5:07pm
Correlations...

... worth paying attention...

JPY vs Gold
Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY vs Gold Weekly 03.09.14.png Size: 31 KB

Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY vs Gold Monthly 03.09.14.png Size: 26 KB


moral of the story: dont pick fights with Central Bankers... 'nuff said...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #526
  • Mar 9, 2014 4:02pm Mar 9, 2014 4:02pm
Gold Most Bullish Since 2012 as Goldman Sees Slump: Commodities
By Elizabeth Campbell, Megan Durisin and Debarati Roy - Mar 9, 2014

Gold is getting more attractive to hedge-fund managers even as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the metal’s surprising rally this year will soon fizzle.
Hedge funds and other speculators expanded bets on higher prices for a fourth week in New York futures and are now the most bullish since December 2012, government data show. While gold is off to its best start in six years after topping $1,350 an ounce, Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie says chances are increasing that prices will slump to $1,000 for the first time since 2009.

link to article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...mmodities.html

comment: for once, I agree with Goldman... or maybe its the other way around!!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #527
  • Mar 9, 2014 9:25pm Mar 9, 2014 9:25pm
morning theDHT,

nice analysis from you last friday, Gold it's not touch above of your triangle. Coz i put my SL little above your Critical Levels.
In line with Gold coorelations is Yen according your analysis, i think Yen going to drop more..
i want to learn your analysis mate.. bigger timeframe to play.

regards,
  • #528
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:02am Mar 10, 2014 2:02am
Quoting asia_fx
morning theDHT, nice analysis from you last friday, Gold it's not touch above of your triangle. Coz i put my SL little above your Critical Levels. In line with Gold coorelations is Yen according your analysis, i think Yen going to drop more.. i want to learn your analysis mate.. bigger timeframe to play. regards,

the analysis applies to all time frames,
i prefer the higher time frames because it removes the "noise" with regard to trend direction
and because it it allows me to take several hundred pip/points per trade, which means I can scale up my positions as the trade starts to move in my favor
its a greedy mans style, to be honest
the downside is that you need to have wide stops, which means managing position size/risk accordingly
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #529
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:21am Mar 10, 2014 2:21am
Dollar Yen: update (from here)

Dip Buying

Time and Price

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dollar Yen H4 03.10.14.png Size: 60 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #530
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:47am Mar 10, 2014 2:47am
Euro Yen

Time and Price: BTFD

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro Yen Daily 03.10.14.png Size: 48 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #531
  • Mar 10, 2014 2:54am Mar 10, 2014 2:54am
DHT

problem with the yens at the moment for me are the indices.
Dow definitely looks toppy now not not taken out 16560.
If it takes that level out and makes new record highs then
the yens will be off at the races again.
Not easy to trade IMO but euro looks strong.
rat
  • #532
  • Mar 10, 2014 3:14am Mar 10, 2014 3:14am
Gidday EUR/YEN

Even to get a short in around 144 or higher

is not bad as things can turn to custard

This pair owns me quiet a few green pips
  • #533
  • Mar 10, 2014 3:35am Mar 10, 2014 3:35am
Quoting rattyo
DHT problem with the yens at the moment for me are the indices. Dow definitely looks toppy now not not taken out 16560. If it takes that level out and makes new record highs then the yens will be off at the races again. Not easy to trade IMO but euro looks strong.

While I agree with your observation in general, I think the driver is not the Dow, but the Yens.
Euro Yen can be thought of as a high beta play on the SPX. I posted a chart comparing the relative prices of these two here
this tool is very helpful in the determination of the major trend
Dow, being a blue chip index, would not move the way Euro Yen or SPX... therefore, even though I see a new all time high for the Dow this year (on a closing basis), my targets are moderate compared with my targets for Euro Yen and SPX

Also, regarding JPY, take a look here
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #534
  • Mar 10, 2014 3:51am Mar 10, 2014 3:51am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} While I agree with your observation in general, I think the driver is not the Dow, but the Yens. Euro Yen can be thought of as a high beta play on the SPX. I posted a chart comparing the relative prices of these two here this tool is very helpful in the determination of the major trend Dow, being a blue chip index, would not move the way Euro Yen or SPX... therefore, even though I see a new all time high for the Dow this year (on a closing basis), my targets are...

To illustrate the above point:

Correlation:

Euro Yen vs S&P 500

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro Yen vs SPX Daily 03.10.14.png Size: 41 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #535
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:00am Mar 10, 2014 4:00am
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday EUR/YEN Even to get a short in around 144 or higher is not bad as things can turn to custard This pair owns me quiet a few green pips
you long or short?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #536
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:05am Mar 10, 2014 4:05am
Hello

With all these big moves lurking

One has to be a tad care full chasing them to the the top

You have to keep an eye on the equity

An balance things out

the cross pairs can suck your account dry over night.

Man they sure are pumping the EUR:nerd:
  • #537
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:05am Mar 10, 2014 4:05am
JPY Futures: followup (from here)

Farewell General Custer...

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY Futures H4 03.10.14.png Size: 46 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #538
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:07am Mar 10, 2014 4:07am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} you long or short?
Hello DHT

EUR/YEN


2 Long to 144 an 144.5

3 short to 140

Main long chart US/JPY to 105+
  • #539
  • Mar 10, 2014 4:23am Mar 10, 2014 4:23am
Quoting eliteincome
{quote} Hello DHT EUR/YEN 2 Long to 144 an 144.5 3 short to 140 Main long chart US/JPY to 105+
I think there's more downside before the upside, although I think ~140 is too ambitious!!

good luck dude
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #540
  • Mar 10, 2014 10:16pm Mar 10, 2014 10:16pm
morning theDHT

i'm try to build both short on UJ and EJ according your last chart.
meanwhile take some opportunities buying Gold...

hv good day mate.
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