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  • #73,961
  • Mar 7, 2014 8:53pm Mar 7, 2014 8:53pm
But look at China's trade balance....
Go hard or go home
  • #73,962
  • Mar 7, 2014 9:10pm Mar 7, 2014 9:10pm
Quoting Forkcast
But look at China's trade balance....

  • #73,963
  • Mar 7, 2014 9:25pm Mar 7, 2014 9:25pm
China trade balance doesn't surprise me at all. As expected, worse than Jan.

We will have a better chance to long AUD again.

The big risk next week is Australia Jobless rate and NZ rate hike. It could change game a lot.

Anyway, I think any long orders under 0.89 are very safe.
  • #73,964
  • Mar 7, 2014 9:34pm Mar 7, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} These kinds of comments really make me scratch my head. You want to go short, I won't try to stop you, but it's gone up hundreds of pips, and you've been short minded on it the whole time? Are you sure you're not biased to losing money on this? What's the logic? What's the point? What's the timeframe? What's the size of the position? AUD was basically flat all February and has done pretty well thus far in March, and not just you, but a lot of people on here are still short. Go figure. Explain that one to me, and please spare me the "because...

http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...psb35f535c.jpg


No arguement needed IMO my friend. It can be easily seen that AUD currently is meeting resistance. This SR line will be critical to decide if the pair will go higher or dip down to where it came from.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #73,965
  • Mar 7, 2014 9:38pm Mar 7, 2014 9:38pm
Quoting Forkcast
But look at China's trade balance....
Not surprise, everyone in China is on holidays during the Chinese Golden week holidays at that time.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #73,966
  • Mar 7, 2014 9:47pm Mar 7, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting zew
I think any long orders under 0.89 are very safe.
I beg to differ, .90 is an important line, if it cannot be held on, we will fall back into bears territory.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #73,967
  • Mar 7, 2014 9:49pm Mar 7, 2014 9:49pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Not surprise, everyone in China is on holidays during the Chinese Golden week holidays at that time.
If so - then why a 6-standard-deviation miss? Didn't the 45 economists who forecast this data already know this when applying their forecasts?
  • #73,968
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:01pm Mar 7, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting zew
Anyway, I think any long orders under 0.89 are very safe.
Why are you still holding a long from under 0.89? I would have closed before NFP - says the man holding an epic short in the red...
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,969
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:11pm Mar 7, 2014 10:11pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} I beg to differ, .90 is an important line, if it cannot be held on, we will fall back into bears territory.
With China data like that I am surprised we are not below already..
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,970
  • Mar 7, 2014 11:13pm Mar 7, 2014 11:13pm
if the aud drops on weaker than expected Chinese figures it does not represent a good buying opportunity to me. the aud does seems to be shrugging off Chinese numbers somewhat at present so i guess we will see if there is any reaction on mondays open or not. copper off 4% in a single session is a massive move though. as a commodity currency i think the aud will come under pressure next week if metals continue lower
  • #73,971
  • Mar 8, 2014 1:43am Mar 8, 2014 1:43am
Free to translate it the way you want to fit your bias

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  • #73,972
  • Mar 8, 2014 2:49am Mar 8, 2014 2:49am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} {image} No arguement needed IMO my friend. It can be easily seen that AUD currently is meeting resistance. This SR line will be critical to decide if the pair will go higher or dip down to where it came from.
Look at your Moving Averages, they all signal an up move..
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #73,973
  • Mar 8, 2014 2:57am Mar 8, 2014 2:57am
Quoting aviz12
{quote} Look at your Moving Averages, they all signal an up move..
they can change pretty damn quick as well
  • #73,974
  • Mar 8, 2014 3:01am Mar 8, 2014 3:01am
Quoting Ken A
Just curious, how everyone perceives the negative CNY trade balance, is it good or bad for AUD and why? It seems that everyone has different opinions {image}
data is noisy jan and feb

the airliner lost if its terrorism could be bigger than that
  • #73,975
  • Mar 8, 2014 3:18am Mar 8, 2014 3:18am
Quoting Halba
{quote} data is noisy jan and feb the airliner lost if its terrorism could be bigger than that
If you are referring to MH370 there's no light as to its where about other than entering Vietnam airspace let alone the cause yet.

But yes, it was terrible to the family and relative of the passengers and crews waiting for an answer. It's a torture.

http://www.trbimg.com/img-531ab5e1/t...s-20140307/600
  • #73,976
  • Mar 8, 2014 3:31am Mar 8, 2014 3:31am
Quoting Ken A
Just curious, how everyone perceives the negative CNY trade balance, is it good or bad for AUD and why? It seems that everyone has different opinions {image}
see, number is red, therefore bad for aud.
  • #73,977
  • Mar 8, 2014 3:44am Mar 8, 2014 3:44am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} So red # = More Imports or Exports by China? If red # = more imports by China how can that be bad for AUD?

yeah, you got a point.

there are 3 more weekend events so I am not thinking about next week strategy yet.

leaning towards up at this point.
  • #73,978
  • Mar 8, 2014 3:58am Mar 8, 2014 3:58am
Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad...

  1. *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM
  2. *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM

  • #73,979
  • Mar 8, 2014 4:43am Mar 8, 2014 4:43am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} So red # = More Imports or Exports by China? If red # = more imports by China how can that be bad for AUD?
Very good point Ken, I did not think of it that way.

This is the way I saw it.


China are huge exporters - as we know almost everything we buy these days is made in China or has most of the parts made in China.
So the fact that exports slowed down is a rather large signal that the world is slowing down (not spinning) but if the world is slowing consuming.

^ or is that too drastic a view?
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,980
  • Mar 8, 2014 5:15am Mar 8, 2014 5:15am
I see many judgements' being clouded by fundamentals.!!!!!!
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