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NZD/USD

  • #3,481
  • Mar 7, 2014 1:57pm Mar 7, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting Forexia
The trend is still up. This is just the bull taking a breather. Has to take a rest somewhere after having climbed so far. Once this US NFP number blows over, it's going to pick itself up and continue right at where it left off. It was going to continue up today but the NFP number messed up its course so it's going to just climb a little harder starting next week. Be careful out there shorts, you don't want to be hung out to dry.
I think it won't leave this range 0.85 0.80, the optimistic outlook on the NZD economy won't go far if the rest of the world doesn't catch up. NZD is still vulnarable to any slow downs on any developed economies and there is enough of disparity on that front to send it lower.
I will enter short next week.
  • #3,482
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:13pm Mar 7, 2014 2:13pm
Well Foxy

Fear an greed

I went short from the high

Nothing worse than been left up the off the mountain with panties

around ankles
  • #3,483
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:13pm Mar 7, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting iamyiyuan
{quote} Just checked RBNZ have meetings on 30-Jan and 13-Mar, Reuters have the following reports, all suggests a rate hike... It seems... {image} {image} {image}
look up too abt what Gov Wheeler has said, believe it was last October about the RBNZ's rate hike goals over the next 2 years. Something like 225+bps of hikes. that news is what started the Aud/Nzd downtrend, back when RBA's Stevens was also reiterating "further easing" in last year's RBA statements.
  • #3,484
  • Edited 3:26pm Mar 7, 2014 3:14pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting TrueRomance
{quote} I think it won't leave this range 0.85 0.80, the optimistic outlook on the NZD economy won't go far if the rest of the world doesn't catch up. NZD is still vulnarable to any slow downs on any developed economies and there is enough of disparity on that front to send it lower. I will enter short next week.
0.85xx seems to be the resistence atm but it won't last long. New Zealand economy is going strong. And they are enroute to withdraw stimulus to the economy as they believe their GDP growth is now self-sustaining which would raise the interest rate. Their export is going strong due to the huge demand for their dairy products specifically the milk powder from China. They have having a huge construction boom internally due to the reconstruction in Cantebury after the earthquake and high net in migration from Australia and the rest of the world aka China. They are currently having an 18% inflation in their housing industry for which they had to dampen by restricting High Loan-to-Value mortgages. On the other hand, RBNZ actually welcomes the high NZD as it would help keep their inflation in check because they help dampen import prices so RBNZ wouldn't actually need to raise the OCR rate that much. So all points to a high NZD in the future.

Just a word of hint. Anywhere that the Chinese want to go or anything that Chinese want to buy would sure to make that place rich. Canada had a huge boost to its economy due to its large influx of immigration from China. US's TWO states that had the largest sustainable growth especially in real estate, New York and California, both favoured by the Chinese. People BID for houses there in San Diego especially in districts with good schools because Chinese are all nerds that stress on education. The only two currencies that's going up everyday is the AU and the NZ, both countries that supply stuff that China needs. Yup, it takes a whole world to house and feed a country with 1.3 billion population and growing and this is after their voluntary one-child-per-family policy for over 40 years. Imagine China never had any birth restriction policy in place like India.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,485
  • Mar 7, 2014 6:47pm Mar 7, 2014 6:47pm
Quoting Forexia
The trend is still up. This is just the bull taking a breather. Has to take a rest somewhere after having climbed so far. Once this US NFP number blows over, it's going to pick itself up and continue right at where it left off. It was going to continue up today but the NFP number messed up its course so it's going to just climb a little harder starting next week. Be careful out there shorts, you don't want to be hung out to dry.
Agreed, just give my shorts a few more pips, before next week RBNZ meeting...
  • #3,486
  • Mar 7, 2014 7:58pm Mar 7, 2014 7:58pm
Hey guys...why does mt4 show the following price yet everything i have read on the web reads a higher number??? Please explain.
Attached Image
  • #3,487
  • Mar 7, 2014 8:41pm Mar 7, 2014 8:41pm
Quoting BDardenTrade
Hey guys...why does mt4 show the following price yet everything i have read on the web reads a higher number??? Please explain. {image}
That's your broker's feed. That's its bid at today's closing. Friday's closing usually has REALLY HUGE bid/ask spread. My broker, Oanda shows the bid at 0.84466 as well.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,488
  • Mar 7, 2014 9:13pm Mar 7, 2014 9:13pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} 0.85xx seems to be the resistence atm but it won't last long. New Zealand economy is going strong. And they are enroute to withdraw stimulus to the economy as they believe their GDP growth is now self-sustaining which would raise the interest rate. Their export is going strong due to the huge demand for their dairy products specifically the milk powder from China. They have having a huge construction boom internally due to the reconstruction in Cantebury after the earthquake and high net in migration from Australia and the rest of the world...

China's trade balance in much lower than expected.....well see how the CPI comes in tomorrow...as of now I will continue to hold my short even more so now(might see a gap down) Gotta see what happens with North Korea and Russia as well.
  • #3,489
  • Mar 7, 2014 9:24pm Mar 7, 2014 9:24pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} China's trade balance in much lower than expected.....well see how the CPI comes in tomorrow...as of now I will continue to hold my short even more so now(might see a gap down) Gotta see what happens with North Korea and Russia as well.
Ok I didn't see that number yet. All I saw was in the FF news that China's Export is way lower in Feb. Is that the number that you are referring to? If so, that's even better for AU and NZ because that means China's importing more and exporting less. Who's China's major trading partner? Yup, AU, NZ and JP. But anyway, I will let the market do the talking.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,490
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:28pm Mar 7, 2014 10:28pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Ok I didn't see that number yet. All I saw was in the FF news that China's Export is way lower in Feb. Is that the number that you are referring to? If so, that's even better for AU and NZ because that means China's importing more and exporting less. Who's China's major trading partner? Yup, AU, NZ and JP. But anyway, I will let the market do the talking.

what happens when you import faster than you export?
  • #3,491
  • Mar 7, 2014 10:37pm Mar 7, 2014 10:37pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} what happens when you import faster than you export?
Oh c'mon China is loaded with foreign currencies.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,492
  • Edited 11:54pm Mar 7, 2014 11:41pm | Edited 11:54pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Oh c'mon China is loaded with foreign currencies.
I think ur right we need to see the breakdown of imports the fact that there is that drastic of a discrepancy signals a possiblely signifcant slowdown in chinese manufacturing which is all around bad for AUD and NZD. Copper is down 4%. That is horrific for commodity currencies. I think what we are missing fundamentally is that the NZD has been strong for some time now. The unfortunate thing about the Kiwi is its the ultimate risk on risk off currency meaning it can go down even with itself having strong fundamentals but has to face possible headwinds from China and again the Ukraine situation isn't nipped in the bud either. If Wheeler dosen't hike rates next week, we could see this sub .8 even with nothing but great data coming out of New Zealand. And again even if they do hike rates we don't know how much has been priced in but its been talked about a rate hike in march since Jan. Soo we could see a rate hike and see a sell off in the NZD. Now if they elect to go 50bps that could cause ripples but Wheeler dosent want to see AUD/NZD at parity so I think the chances are slim to none that resulting. And again dont forget about the USD if the NFP is telling us that all we had was a winter lull in America and now things are about to pick up again in the US WATCHOUT! The entire market is big short USD right now a squeeze may be a coming! The more I talk the more I like shorts at these levels man o man. This could get ugly for the bulls but again u never know just manage risk and trade ur plan
  • #3,493
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:00am Mar 8, 2014 12:00am
Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad...

  1. *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM
  2. *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM

Maybe even worse then I thought all i can say is damn

  • #3,494
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:07am Mar 8, 2014 12:07am
Quoting iNSIELD
Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad... *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM Maybe even worse then I thought all i can say is damn
Ok ok you got a point there but I am not convinced until I see it confirmed by the market and reflected in the chart. Remember, it ain't so until when the market says so. Getting ahead of the market doesn't always work. Market has its own agenda and if it doesn't want to react to something there is nothing you can do about it. But if it does want to react to something, you will be sure I will be the first to follow.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,495
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:18am Mar 8, 2014 12:18am
Lol see it on the chart...last time I checked there was a pretty healthy engulfing candle on 4hr chart and a possible top on daily...
  • #3,496
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:20am Mar 8, 2014 12:20am
Quoting iNSIELD
{quote} I think ur right we need to see the breakdown of imports the fact that there is that drastic of a discrepancy signals a possiblely signifcant slowdown in chinese manufacturing which is all around bad for AUD and NZD. Copper is down 4%. That is horrific for commodity currencies. I think what we are missing fundamentally is that the NZD has been strong for some time now. The unfortunate thing about the Kiwi is its the ultimate risk on risk off currency meaning it can go down even with itself having strong fundamentals but has to face possible...

It seems to be free money jump into my pocket next week for longing AUD/NZD at lows and shorting NZD/USD at highs.

I do not read fundamentals, I deal with no data, but my tech and experience tells me to do so. Same reason I never lose a single bet on risk events since last June.

My only concern is NZD will either jump too high before the announcement or dip too low. I do not deal with later days releases normally (NFP is a different matter).

In the first case, I make less money when it falls, in the second case, a high risk, altho very unlikely.

So I am thinking should I jump at the monday's high or wait, since I am sure I can make money on shorting it in either case, just a matter of time(couple of more days).
  • #3,497
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:28am Mar 8, 2014 12:28am
Quoting Rizmeister
Lol see it on the chart...last time I checked there was a pretty healthy engulfing candle on 4hr chart and a possible top on daily...
Yeah because of that way better than expected NFP number. What if that NFP number wasn't there today? You think that candle would still be engulfing? Just wondering...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,498
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:30am Mar 8, 2014 12:30am
Quoting ARouND
{quote} It seems to be free money jump into my pocket next week for longing AUD/NZD at lows and shorting NZD/USD at highs. I do not read fundamentals, I deal with no data, but my tech and experience tells me to do so. Same reason I never lose a single bet on risk events since last June. My only concern is NZD will either jump too high before the announcement or dip too low. I do not deal with later days releases normally (NFP is a different matter). In the first case, I make less money when it falls, in the second case, a high risk, altho very unlikely....
lol Around I only make decisions purely on Techs as well lol. I just think that when I read NZD is going to go up bc of rate hike and bc the data is so strong and we don't take the entire picture into view I just wanted to offer another perspective with the understanding that if it goes down ppl are able to see the other side of the coin as well. Great trades and I hope they work out for u
  • #3,499
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:36am Mar 8, 2014 12:36am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Yeah because of that way better than expected NFP number. What if that NFP number wasn't there today? You think that candle would still be engulfing? Just wondering...
No it will not. But it would not shooting that high yesterday then.
  • #3,500
  • Mar 8, 2014 12:40am Mar 8, 2014 12:40am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Yeah because of that way better than expected NFP number. What if that NFP number wasn't there today? You think that candle would still be engulfing? Just wondering...
unfortunately for the bulls it did just stay flexible and nimble and adjust and u'll be fine Again the bulls may be right and the bears will have to adjust as well
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