Trading Without a StopLoss

Rap, I have say that it brings me great pleasure to be able to help someone pass on their body of work. Please do upload your files, and we can turn this trading without a stop loss into something more than just a debate. I am pretty sure that we trade almost identically, but it anyone's strategy can always be enhanced. Looking forward to the teaching.

Here is a list of children and their parents. Check them out. see if I have them correct.

A take on moving averages: many of my trades today I just looked at these and knew whether to enter or not.
Especially after I closed a screamer.

This scroll shows the screens I have currently displayed onscreen. The numbers underneath the names are the parent pairs by screen number and indicating the direction they need to go in to push the child. Remember, if you encounter a pair of parents going the other way, you can stop looking. The child is going to go out of profit. Somewhere else, there will usually be a child which will go into profit.

More Later: It is one o'clock EST and I close all pending trades at this time. I suggest you do the same. More on this later.

Have you been burned by gaps too?

Rap, you are going to have to put on some trades to get some of the ideas across. I will be participating as well.

I trade only the EurUsd on multiple low leveraged entries, without hard stops. Often positions in both direction, however mostly net short or long based on my fundamental discretionary bias. Rap, interested in your hedging perspective and will also follow on demo account.

Welcome to the Club:

Consider this idea: It only holds under ideal conditions but when it does,;-) !


The nekkid trade:

Right after you close the screamer window, and the moving average setup is optimum, you open a new entry window: Before you even start checking the pushes it starts screaming again. Enter the trade immediately. Open the close window immediately and wait for the scream to stop, no need to set take profit (or Stop Loss) because when it stops screaming, you're going to close it.
Repeat until conditions change.
Remember to breathe. Holding your breath in these conditions is not good for you.

Even a die hard fixed stop loss enthusiast won't need a stop loss under these conditions!

Rap I am getting much more parent pairs from the child pairs,


To me it looks likes everything is interlinked.

Ps (can somebody please help me, I have it onto excel and I want to paste it into the forum. any suggestions)

I can give screen shots and mark the entry points of pending trades that I will set, and give reasons why, I think.

Screamers and Nekkid trades happen too fast. I can only report them after it's too late. But if you follow them, you should get an idea of what I am doing. Better yet, get ideas of what you want to do.

Monday, then. I have some composing-uploading to do saturday and sunday, Don't I?

Rap, have a look at my list of child pairs

CHILD PAIR

AUD CAD

AUD CHF CAD CHF
AUD JPY CAD JPY
AUD NZD NZD CAD
AUD USD USD CAD
AUD EUR EUR CAD
GPB AUD GPB CAD

AUD CHF
AUD CAD CAD CHF
AUD JPY CHF JPY
AUD NZD NZD CHF
AUD USD USD CHF
EUR AUD EUR CHF
GPB AUD GPB CHF

AUD JPY
AUD CAD CAD JPY
AUD CHF CHF JPY
AUD NZD NZD JPY
AUD USD USD JPY
EUR AUD EUR JPY
GPB AUD GPB JPY

AUD NZD
AUD CAD NZD CAD
AUD CHF NZD CHF
AUD JPY NZD JPY
AUD USD NZD USD
EUR AUD EUR NZD
GPB AUD GPB NZD

AUD USD
AUD CAD USD CAD
AUD CHF USD CHF
AUD JPY USD JPY
AUD NZD NZD USD
EUR AUD EUR USD
GPB AUD GPB USD

CAD JPY
AUD CAD AUD JPY
EUR CAD EUR JPY
GPB CAD GPB JPY
NZD CAD NZD JPY
USD CAD USD JPY
CAD CHF CHF JPY

CHF JPY
AUD CHF AUD JPY
EUR CHF EUR JPY
GPB CHF GPB JPY
NZD CHF NZD JPY
USD CHF USD JPY
CAD CHF CAD JPY






EUR AUD
EUR CAD AUD CAD
EUR CHF AUD CHF
EUR USD AUD USD
EUR GPB GPB AUD
EUR JPY AUD JPY
EUR NZD AUD NZD

EUR CAD
EUR AUD AUD CAD
EUR CHF CAD CHF
EUR USD USD CAD
EUR GPB GPB CAD
EUR JPY CAD JPY
EUR NZD NZD CAD

EUR CHF
EUR AUD AUD CHF
EUR CAD CAD CHF
EUR USD USD CHF
EUR GPB GPB CHF
EUR JPY CHF JPY
EUR NZD NZD CHF

EUR USD
EUR AUD AUD USD
EUR CAD USD CAD
EUR CHF USD CHF
EUR GPB GPB USD
EUR JPY USD JPY
EUR NZD NZD USD

EUR GPB
EUR AUD GPB AUD
EUR CAD GPB CAD
EUR CHF GPB CHF
EUR USD GPB USD
EUR JPY GPB JPY
EUR NZD GPB NZD

EUR JPY
EUR AUD AUD JPY
EUR CAD CAD JPY
EUR CHF CHF JPY
EUR USD USD JPY
EUR GPB GPB JPY
EUR NZD NZD JPY

EUR NZD
EUR AUD AUD NZD
EUR CAD NZD CAD
EUR CHF NZD CHF
EUR USD NZD USD
EUR GPB GPB NZD
EUR JPY NZD JPY








GPB JPY
GPB AUD AUD JPY
GPB CAD CAD JPY
GPB CHF CHF JPY
GPB NZD NZD JPY
GPB USD USD JPY
EUR GPB EUR JPY

GPB AUD
EUR GPB EUR AUD
GPB JPY AUD JPY
GPB CAD AUD CAD
GPB CHF AUD CHF
GPB NZD AUD NZD
GPB USD AUD USD

GPB CAD
EUR GPB EUR CAD
GPB JPY CAD JPY
GPB AUD AUD CAD
GPB CHF CAD CHF
GPB NZD NZD CAD
GPB USD USD CAD

GPB CHF
EUR GPB EUR CHF
GPB JPY CHF JPY
GPB AUD AUD CHF
GPB CAD CAD CHF
GPB NZD NZD CHF
GPB USD USD CHF

GPB NZD
EUR GPB EUR NZD
GPB AUD AUD NZD
GPB CAD NZD CAD
GPB CHF NZD CHF
GPB JPY NZD JPY
GPB USD NZD USD

GPB USD
EUR GPB EUR USD
GPB JPY USD JPY
GPB AUD AUD USD
GPB CAD USD CAD
GPB CHF USD CHF
GPB NZD NZD USD

NZD CHF
AUD NZD AUD CHF
EUR NZD EUR CHF
GPB NZD GPB CHF
NZD JPY CHF JPY
NZD USD USD CHF
NZD CAD CAD CHF








NZD JPY
AUD NZD AUD JPY
EUR NZD EUR JPY
GPB NZD GPB JPY
NZD USD USD JPY
NZD CAD CAD JPY
NZD CHF CHF JPY

NZD USD
AUD NZD AUD USD
EUR NZD EUR USD
GPB NZD GPB USD
NZD CHF USD CHF
NZD JPY USD JPY
NZD CAD USD CAD

NZD CAD
AUD NZD AUD CAD
EUR NZD EUR CAD
GPB NZD GPB CAD
NZD CHF CAD CHF
NZD JPY CAD JPY
NZD USD USD CAD

USD CAD
AUD USD AUD CAD
USD JPY CAD JPY
GPB USD GPB CAD
NZD USD NZD CAD
USD CHF CAD CHF
EUR USD EUR CAD

USD CHF
AUD USD AUD CHF
USD JPY CHF JPY
EUR USD EUR CHF
GPB USD GPB CHF
NZD USD NZD CHF
USD CAD CAD CHF

USD JPY
AUD USD AUD JPY
EUR USD EUR JPY
GPB USD GPB JPY
GPB USD NZD JPY
USD CAD CAD JPY
USD CHF CHF JPY

CAD CHF
CAD AUD AUD CHF
CAD JPY CHF JPY
CAD EUR EUR CHF
CAD GPB GPB CHF
CAD NZD NZD CHF
CAD USD USD CHF

I got these pairs from IBFX australia

Note: no pending trades; Note : bunches of trades close to profit.
Over the weekend, some of these occasionally come into profit, and trigger the Take Profit level, but since the market is closed, the trade goes on.
When the market opens, it will see the TPs activated and close the trades. At Current market price for big time gains. I have never been burned . The trades that did not jump mostly come into profit Sunday evening. This won't work if you use stop losses.

But don't leave pending trades on the table:
MT4 seems to really mangle pending trades,opening them and closing them sometimes at a loss, even though I don't use stop losses. I get rid of them in plenty of time, and spend the last few hours scalping the open trades. Taking the profits and putting new entries in, just to keep them closer to the Market price.

Also note the HUGE debt load all the way on the right. Most of this is from a failed system I was trying last year. Got too greedy Way too big lot sizes: They have been reducing as the market comes back, and so I keep carrying them.

My equity has gone up $140 or so this week: Almost as much as my principle. That would amount to $7000 over the year on top of a $3800 account.
Unreal. This has been going on ever since I opened up my monitor to all those screens.

Yes you can set this up in a half hour or so in the morning and walk away for eight hours and come back and there will be money made.
Or you can PUSH the trades aggressively yourself, have a little fun, and maybe make more money. I will try next week to check in frequently, give trade examples. set up examples, answer questions, etc.

I keep three more screens hidden at the bottom. Once you set them up, You really only need to look at them when they come into profit, for scalping screamers and Nekkid trading:

Now from your standpoint it is not important how well I can do with my ideas as it as how well you can do with them.

Really digging the colour scheme(s). I am hating white pages these days. Staring at screens all day is difficult when its white. Black backgrounds are my golden ticket

With all those screens up, during setup especially, It is easy to get one screen confused with another:
Note That I keep a "5" floating visible on the 5th screen. and a "12" on the 12th screen to help me orient myself faster.

Once you have set up the S/R lines for the day (the two closest for support, two closest to cmp for resistance) and set the respective pending trades 5 pips or so beyond the nearest S/R line, 90% of the time that is all you need to do. Walk away. Go to work your day job. Take a good nap. Come back in 6, 8 hours and make adjustments to the lines and the trades and make note of the money you have made. The secret is the fixed directional bias of the screens: Every currency has a couple of screens ready to go into profit if it makes a real move up. Every currency has a couple of screens ready to go into profit if it makes a real move down.

A vast majority of the time, only one currency is making a real move and the screens will catch it. Parent -child pushes will signal the verification of this movement.
Since the market price must cross a S/R line to get to the entry, and that does not happen without a push, Probability of profit is very high. If you are around, a glance at what the parents are doing will usually reassure you.

When a support line is crossed, It becomes a line of resistance, and vice versa. So the market would need a push in the Other direction for that to happen. more often than not, if the first push goes away, the trade will bump into the take profit point before that happens. (You need a good take profit method. I will give a very simple one sometime this week end.)

Now, if you really need a stop loss to feel comfortable in your trade you can place it right at where the market price is when you first set the trade up. That would mean that you think that the price has crossed back across the line and the premise was a mistake.

I believe that there are other, better ways, to handle the case that will yield you more chances at profit and still protect you from catastrophe. But the choice is yours. Try it either way for a month at a time and see which way grows your account faster.

I believe it can really really be that simple, if you wish.

The rest of my ideas lie in the direction of improvements on system details, size of trade, what to do if you get in trouble, etc.

Besides if that is all you are going to do, it gets boring after a while.

Really, nekkid trading can be a blast!

Deal. In the heat of market movement I certainly do not have time to post trades with signals occurring twice a minute at times, so I get it.

Impressive collection. The confusing part is which way each parent should go to push the child.
Ibfx australia has a better choice than the one in the US. I am jealous.

A quick look found no errors. You will have more screens up than I will. Do it. more money, same amount of total risk, Really.

Monday we shall run the simplest techniques I can think of on this kind of bed of screens, until we see how we can make money.

Get the screens ready over the weekend. Even if it is Quiet, as Monday frequently is, You will be very very busy otherwise.
Each pair screened: Two lines of support and two lines of resistance properly placed on each screen. Pending trades beyond the first S/R line. Send me a screen shot of it over the weekend so I have time to look it over. I will describe these three steps in more detail tomorrow. Running out of steam.

So I was getting ready to post a screen shot of my window, and I realized that I do not know what time frame you want us to be on. What time frame is the 8, 32, 96 moving averages on? Are they EMA, SMA, LWMA? Are they open, close, median.....etc.

Good questions: The devil in the details.

I use 1 hour time frames and simple moving averages, This is slow enough not to be hectic for me and fast enough to be reactive. I put them on the close, but I did that just to have a place to put them. That setup works fine for me: You can have fun changing things around to suit yourself, but for proof of concept, try it this way for a while.

I hope you have word because the file I am uploading is a word document!


Follow the setup, do the pending trades, just let it run for a day, and see what happens. Let me know!

Also let me know if you do not have Word!

For anyone who does not have word, use Open Office. It's free.

Okay, here is what my charts look like.

My pairs are audcad, audchf, audjpy, audnzd, audusd, cadchf, cadjpy, chfjpy, euraud, eurcad, eurchf, eurgbp, eurjpy, eurnzd, eurusd, gpbaud, gbpcad, gbpchf, gbpjpy, gbpnzd, gbpusd, nzdcad, nzdchf, nzdjpy, nzdusd, usdcad, usdchf, usdjpy

I am glad to see it is hourly. Nice background color.

Let me analyse this for you. I too have this chart on screen ( you get to have 4 more, you lucky so-and so! I gotta call IBFX or Oanda: side point, if you run platforms from 2 different brokers, and one goes kerfluffle, you still have the other, etc. etc. )

I would put 2 lines of resistance above the cmp (1.00486) the first at the very top ( around 1.04050) because price moved back from that point. The second, closer to cmp , I would put at the peak of the red Moving average ( a little lower than 1.00486).

I would categorize the moving averages on the chart as "condition 4" optimum for a buy, with the caveat that the red ma is dropping.

I would predict, in the absence of knowledge to the contrary (the usual case), that more pushes are going to come to raise the price than to lower it.

If you have selected this screen as "buy only" you are in a most fortunate position.

I would put a buy stop order 5p or so above the the lower resistance line. (Oh, say 1.0076 with a take profit of 15 (( at 1.0130)) another 5p higher (1.0135) , tp 15p higher(1.0180), and a third 5 p higher (at 1.0230) with a take profit 50p higher (1.0730). This is my "standard" trade pattern. It is a compromise based on experience that allows me to have something in place that is usually effective without too much thought.

Since I usually have nothing better to do, I can pass by the screen in 4 hours and adjust as fits. It is very rare for a pair to completely exhaust the three trades into profit in 4 hours. If you plan to be away longer (and for the first day or so) just put in another series, 15, 15, and 50. Consider the 15s as paying for the risk of the 50.

If you are sitting at screen, this would be a prime candidate for screamers and nekkid trades. Just be aware of that. You can take opportunity. Just remember not to hold your breath. I do not want to induce strokes in anyone trying this technique. Don't worry if you bring another entry into play while you are doing the screamer. Just switch over to the other entry when the pair stops screaming and you have closed. Open the close window on the other entry and take a breath: if it is not already screaming, and in profit, close it. Take a look at the pair for parent pushes: if they are there, get right back in and look for another screamer.

If/when I had time ( not rushing to tend other windows, catch other screamers, eat breakfast, Kiss the wife (or better)) I would put two lines of support thus:

the close one would sit on top of the hand-shaped formation at the left of the screen and pass just under the middle Moving average ( oh,say 1,0030) I would be guided by the slowest moving average and put the second one around where trace most recently touched the middle moving average and bounced back.(95520)

Moving averages are very like lines of support and resistance in that price will not usually cross them without a reason.
Moving averages and lines of S/R are determined by price action which is determined by pushes, so they are all related in a single system. (just an observation).

Unfortunately for me this is a "SELL ONLY" screen (largely arbitrary decision from the past). I would look for the buy on the euraud pair, which shows a similar moving average pattern, NOT coincidentally.
(And look for screamers and nekkid trades).

On this screen, since I will only sell it, I would put a sell stop with a take profit of 15 pips some five pips below the near line of support beneath the white moving average.
The Moving averages would have to be in a transition mode to bring the price there. This is a "Just in Case" entry.
I would not expect a lot of selling activity in this pair, and would adjust my pending entries accordingly.
I would probably drop down and put a sell stop beneath the second resistance line.

However, I see I have inserted a big yellow "No" into this window, which will cause me to pass this by without doing either.
I am already committed to my max on this screen. (you should not have this problem for a while).
I still keep it up, It is after all, a parent to child screens I can put in play.

(Where do I use the parent-child chart I have so carefully drawn up? Not during set up at all: The idea plays its part through its surrogates: the moving averages, the S/R lines) The Bed plays just as important a part in that, properly managed, it will catch a big move by any currency without a whole lot of risk events. Abtruse and difficult calculations, anguish, and despair have no part in it.

I don't need those things.

I like to come to the screen and say " Ooh! It made me how much?" Or "Ooh! a screamer!)

P.S. The only time I look at numbers is when the entry window is asking for them. Otherwise I look at the shape of the charts.

P.P.S: Consider the Candlesticks to be a form of moving averages: number of bars in the period, 0. (No MT-4 will not post such a moving average, besides candlesticks tell you more.)