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AUD/USD

  • #73,941
  • Mar 7, 2014 8:05am Mar 7, 2014 8:05am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Gold and Silver already falling fast as we speak!
yep
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A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,942
  • Mar 7, 2014 8:11am Mar 7, 2014 8:11am
NFP kinda changes the game here a bit, probably should go back to playing the outperformance trade with AUDNZD


Otherwise im selling audusd. SL above 0.9200. China trade more than australia related
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #73,943
  • Mar 7, 2014 8:19am Mar 7, 2014 8:19am
Interesting signal on the 1m ichimoku ... Qantas?
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A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,944
  • Mar 7, 2014 8:22am Mar 7, 2014 8:22am
Quoting whackdiddy
Interesting signal on the 1m ichimoku ... Qantas? {image}

WTF is that? Looks vulgar
  • #73,945
  • Mar 7, 2014 8:24am Mar 7, 2014 8:24am
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} WTF is that? Looks vulgar
Yeah okay, it is a very bad attempt at a plane. if you turn your head it could almost be a dophin..

I am not confident about direction yet, thought we would have seen more of a fall. Seems we have already hit a platue where the bulls could take over again.

The China data once again will be the tell.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,946
  • Mar 7, 2014 8:32am Mar 7, 2014 8:32am
gold is still dropping - AUD should be going down but once again we are seeing something propping it up?
I know it is not this simple but....
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A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,947
  • Mar 7, 2014 8:49am Mar 7, 2014 8:49am
agh that is better, seeing some nice movement now. I was being impatient and not letting the US session really start. 10 minutes until the banks open, so this will be interesting.

Short @ 0.90996
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,948
  • Mar 7, 2014 9:01am Mar 7, 2014 9:01am
Likewise - Short 9107
Looking for it to go 9070 and will make a call from there whether I'm going to hold onto it or not!

Am Also long USDCAD after NFP earlier - that was a good little earner.
Whats it all about anyway?
  • #73,949
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:03pm Mar 7, 2014 12:03pm
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Doji and Stochastic
  • #73,950
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:27pm Mar 7, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting whackdiddy
Interesting signal on the 1m ichimoku ... Qantas? {image}
according to your red spot and the black spot i'm done for the day right? hehe
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  • #73,951
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:48pm Mar 7, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting Citiboy
NFP kinda changes the game here a bit, probably should go back to playing the outperformance trade with AUDNZD Otherwise im selling audusd. SL above 0.9200. China trade more than australia related
i am generally still bearish on the Aud but looking at the USD weakness isn't going yield any majors moves besides choppy action to the downside. Looking to short the Aud through Eur/Aud, Gbp/Aud, Auf/Chf.

Also liking the short in Aud/Nzd. Not decided at what point though.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #73,952
  • Mar 7, 2014 1:56pm Mar 7, 2014 1:56pm
One more scalp long before the end of the day.. ps I more then not get in trouble with these.
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  • #73,953
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:11pm Mar 7, 2014 3:11pm
Where is that "Come at me bro" guy?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #73,954
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:18pm Mar 7, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting Neqrotik
Where is that "Come at me bro" guy?
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Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,955
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:50pm Mar 7, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} i am generally still bearish on the Aud but looking at the USD weakness isn't going yield any majors moves besides choppy action to the downside. Looking to short the Aud through Eur/Aud, Gbp/Aud, Auf/Chf. Also liking the short in Aud/Nzd. Not decided at what point though.
These kinds of comments really make me scratch my head. You want to go short, I won't try to stop you, but it's gone up hundreds of pips, and you've been short minded on it the whole time? Are you sure you're not biased to losing money on this? What's the logic? What's the point? What's the timeframe? What's the size of the position?

AUD was basically flat all February and has done pretty well thus far in March, and not just you, but a lot of people on here are still short. Go figure. Explain that one to me, and please spare me the "because Mr. RBA says so BS".
  • #73,956
  • Mar 7, 2014 5:07pm Mar 7, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} These kinds of comments really make me scratch my head. You want to go short, I won't try to stop you, but it's gone up hundreds of pips, and you've been short minded on it the whole time? Are you sure you're not biased to losing money on this? What's the logic? What's the point? What's the timeframe? What's the size of the position? AUD was basically flat all February and has done pretty well thus far in March, and not just you, but a lot of people on here are still short. Go figure. Explain that one to me, and please spare me the "because...
Apparently you think when I say I'm bearish on the Aussie you really think I have been short with an position/positions open for the past few months. Umm.. No... I actually do take profits when the Aussie each time takes a dump, and re-short when the Aussie pops. The rest, I'm pretty sure you can figure out yourself.

And yes, I'm still bearish on the Aussie.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #73,957
  • Mar 7, 2014 5:08pm Mar 7, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} Apparently you think when I say I'm bearish on the Aussie you really think I have been short with an position/positions open for the past few months. Umm.. No... I actually do take profits when the Aussie each time takes a dump, and re-short when the Aussie pops. The rest, I'm pretty sure you can figure out yourself. And yes, I'm still bearish on the Aussie.

  • #73,958
  • Mar 7, 2014 5:13pm Mar 7, 2014 5:13pm
the logic is that the upside looks limited. Last night base metals and precious were eviscerated on the first Chinese bond default, coal prices remain extremely low and 62% iron ore is now down around $116/wmt, their manufacturing data has fallen sharply and our own domestic data is mixed with rates likely to remain unchanged. During periods of geo political tension risk / growth linked currencies tend to get sold off, last nights NFP was better than forecast despite the weather and the FED looks set to continue winding back stimulus.
The AUD has no doubt outperformed during March some banks like NAB have fair value around this current level i.e. 91,92. A lot of other analysts however see a longer term average of mid 80s returning. Soft US data so far this year has supported the AUD and CFTC data has shown short covering from the record lows posted last year. if this data trends starts to reverse the logic is the USD is going to push down most of the other major crosses.
personally my account is next to empty so position sizes have to be small. In terms of entry points the selling the resistance levels i.e. 200 day at 9150 with 40 to 60 point stops looking to catch the start of a larger downtrend towards 86. i hold for a few day to few weeks generally, sometimes getting back in and out depending what data releases are coming out.
if there is no really break lower it is back to trading the fresh range but for the above reason i think the AUD has more risk of breaking lower than staging another big uptrend & return to parity.
  • #73,959
  • Mar 7, 2014 5:55pm Mar 7, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting Judge Dent
the logic is that the upside looks limited. Last night base metals and precious were eviscerated on the first Chinese bond default, coal prices remain extremely low and 62% iron ore is now down around $116/wmt, their manufacturing data has fallen sharply and our own domestic data is mixed with rates likely to remain unchanged. During periods of geo political tension risk / growth linked currencies tend to get sold off, last nights NFP was better than forecast despite the weather and the FED looks set to continue winding back stimulus. The AUD has...
I agree with you here. The data is pointing to a drop in AUD (US Growth), however the weather is the main reason for AUDUSD not breaking below .8900. The stats are there, backed up by a little Constance in the US .8700 is my target. I am fairly new to this but a lot of research of the economy's EUR US & AU leads me to think that this should be the case. The world is very unpredictable some days and that's why positions have to held over a period of time to allow the noise and random movements from intraday traders. Over the long run providing fundamental bias is correct or close to then its smiles all around. (for us anyway). Happy Trading
  • #73,960
  • Mar 7, 2014 7:29pm Mar 7, 2014 7:29pm
Quoting Judge Dent
the logic is that the upside looks limited. Last night base metals and precious were eviscerated on the first Chinese bond default, coal prices remain extremely low and 62% iron ore is now down around $116/wmt, their manufacturing data has fallen sharply and our own domestic data is mixed with rates likely to remain unchanged. During periods of geo political tension risk / growth linked currencies tend to get sold off, last nights NFP was better than forecast despite the weather and the FED looks set to continue winding back stimulus. The AUD has...

No chance of parity. 0.95 will do fine.
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