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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #11,621
  • Mar 6, 2014 9:29pm Mar 6, 2014 9:29pm
Anticipating some moves for the NFP? What do you traders think? Has the market peaked out? The consensus is 150,000 jobs added. Anyone care to analyze GBP/JPY movement for tomorrow?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,622
  • Mar 6, 2014 9:38pm Mar 6, 2014 9:38pm
Quoting Temujin
Anticipating some moves for the NFP? What do you traders think? Has the market peaked out? The consensus is 150,000 jobs added. Anyone care to analyze GBP/JPY movement for tomorrow?

Yes, tomorrow is very clear. GJ will absolutely and definitely be going up ... or down. Some people would pay good money for that analysis.
  • #11,623
  • Mar 6, 2014 10:00pm Mar 6, 2014 10:00pm
Haha! I'm going to guess here. The magic number will be 117,000 jobs added. GBP/JPY will wind down to 170.40 on a risk aversion scenario. Instead of the euro gaining another 50 pips into 1.39 all of a sudden out of nowhere the old inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and equities will kick in hard.

Bids for USD will start coming on, stocks will sell off and leave the DOW Jones at 16,180. Knowing that this Fed taper is an unstoppable train with no brakes it initiates a downtrend and for the rest of March the U.S. dollar bull market that all the banks have been yapping about for 2014 comes alive not only against emerging market currencies but against the pound and the euro as well.

Next week Ukraine troubles start to flare up again and there is an unwind of the carry trade and the yen starts to bull up. The mass financial media causes the markets to flee into the safety of the dollar and yen flushing out all the yen shorts so that when Kuroda introduces an increase to the BOJ easing the battlefield is clear for the banks to scoop up all the cheap yen crosses that they can muster.

I dreamed all of that up just now, wow.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,624
  • Edited 10:24pm Mar 6, 2014 10:09pm | Edited 10:24pm
Quoting Temujin
Haha! I'm going to guess here. The magic number will be 117,000 jobs added. GBP/JPY will wind down to 170.40 on a risk aversion scenario. Instead of the euro gaining another 50 pips into 1.39 all of a sudden out of nowhere the old inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and equities will kick in hard. Bids for USD will start coming on, stocks will sell off and leave the DOW Jones at 16,180. Knowing that this Fed taper is an unstoppable train with no brakes it initiates a downtrend and for the rest of March the U.S. dollar bull market that all...
You forgot to factor in the pending alien invasion, only offset by the long awaited second coming.

Or maybe the return of your namesake, along with his hordes.
  • #11,625
  • Mar 6, 2014 11:12pm Mar 6, 2014 11:12pm
Haha! I've become so distrustful of these banks it's made me nuts. I keep looking for this unknown catalyst for a new market meltdown but so far the EM mini crisis was like a little market burp.

On the real side Buffet was saying equities have reached their full valuation. There goes GJ, some decent bidding coming back in Tokyo. Go, go, go.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,626
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:16am Mar 7, 2014 12:16am
Really dunno if i should close the trade and wait till after NFP or stay in the trade any analysis will help????
  • #11,627
  • Mar 7, 2014 12:41am Mar 7, 2014 12:41am
Quoting alukojoshfx
Really dunno if i should close the trade and wait till after NFP or stay in the trade any analysis will help????
The Non-Farm Payroll data in the United States is most likely the highest volatility statistical release all month, every month. Couple that with GBP/JPY being an extremely volatile pair. If your direction is correct you stand to gain much, if wrong you could lose 170 pips.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #11,628
  • Mar 7, 2014 1:55am Mar 7, 2014 1:55am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} The Non-Farm Payroll data in the United States is most likely the highest volatility statistical release all month, every month. Couple that with GBP/JPY being an extremely volatile pair. If your direction is correct you stand to gain much, if wrong you could lose 170 pips.
Now GJ is showing the beast in itself, Any reason for GJ heading south while others are staying up hill?
  • #11,629
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:09am Mar 7, 2014 2:09am
Quoting alukojoshfx
{quote} Now GJ is showing the beast in itself, Any reason for GJ heading south while others are staying up hill?

Try looking at say the 5m charts of GbpUsd and UsdJpy and you will find the answer to your question .....and I am not certain what "the others" are.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,630
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:20am Mar 7, 2014 2:20am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Try looking at say the 5m charts of GbpUsd and UsdJpy and you will find the answer to your question .....and I am not certain what "the others" are.....
here you go......note that since just before the London Open, the short TF charts have turned up.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar7 gj 5m multi lo.png Size: 104 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,631
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:30am Mar 7, 2014 2:30am
172 holds thus far
  • #11,632
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:44am Mar 7, 2014 2:44am
Quoting alukojoshfx
{quote} Now GJ is showing the beast in itself, Any reason for GJ heading south while others are staying up hill?
G/J is going down to scoop all the sell orders below the tokyo range and to trigger the stops that the longs have below the range as well ...thats all.
  • #11,633
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:48am Mar 7, 2014 2:48am
Quoting Mpt
172 holds thus far
yep, a nice little Frankies Hour drop that let me buy after LO and I'll take partials soon and call it a morning....low vols pre NFP....

Edit: partials at the **48 level.....best leave a couple on the table....BFN
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,634
  • Mar 7, 2014 2:49am Mar 7, 2014 2:49am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} G/J is going down to scoop all the sell orders b50elow the tokyo range and to trigger the longs that have stops below the range as well ...thats all.
sounds correct to me. I expect anything between 171.40-50 and 171 today before further upside to 175 and some intervention
  • #11,635
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:27am Mar 7, 2014 3:27am
Quoting Greener
{quote} sounds correct to me. I expect anything between 171.40-50 and 171 today before further upside to 175 and some intervention
I think you mean 173.40 -50, but yeah its going to get there since a lot of traders will be trying to call the top and only fuel the bulls
  • #11,636
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:33am Mar 7, 2014 3:33am
A break of 172.8 destroys my triangle argument
  • #11,637
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:38am Mar 7, 2014 3:38am
sell sell sell

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-h1-triple-a-investment.png Size: 32 KB
  • #11,638
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:42am Mar 7, 2014 3:42am
Quoting PatienceFx
sell sell sell {image}
Such enthusiasm
  • #11,639
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:49am Mar 7, 2014 3:49am
Quoting PatienceFx
sell sell sell {image}
wish you were right ..
It doesn't matter how slowly you go as long as you don't stop-Confucius
  • #11,640
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:41am Mar 7, 2014 4:41am
Quoting alvaredo
{quote} wish you were right ..
Whilst I have thrown up an idea as to what it MIGHT be doing, and PatienceFX seems to think it's bearish, unless it shows its hand soon, only a fool goes into NFP with a firm view as to direction.
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