{quote} Should be noted that the larger loss is not always the earlier position, but most of the time it is with average retail traders.
Alert to the grieving. The one with the smaller loss is the one more likely to come back within profit.
Alert to the grieving. The one with the smaller loss is the one more likely to come back within profit.
- #1,563
- Mar 6, 2014 12:46am Mar 6, 2014 12:46am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trade Small, Win Big | 4,988 Posts
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
- #1,564
- Mar 6, 2014 12:47am Mar 6, 2014 12:47am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trade Small, Win Big | 4,988 Posts
{quote} Good post. Also an argument for watching your lot size very carefully. Not making enough money? consider trading more aggressively. Overlap your trades on a winning pair but keep the lot size the same. You increase risk only temporarily, and this moves slowly toward doubling lot size. Alert to the grieving. The one with the smaller loss is the one more likely to come back within profit.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
- #1,565
- Mar 6, 2014 12:48am Mar 6, 2014 12:48am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trade Small, Win Big | 4,988 Posts
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
- #1,566
- Mar 6, 2014 12:54am Mar 6, 2014 12:54am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trade Small, Win Big | 4,988 Posts
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
- #1,567
- Mar 6, 2014 1:24am Mar 6, 2014 1:24am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trade Small, Win Big | 4,988 Posts
{quote} Good post. Also an argument for watching your lot size very carefully. Not making enough money? consider trading more aggressively. Overlap your trades on a winning pair but keep the lot size the same. You increase risk only temporarily, and this moves slowly toward doubling lot size. Alert to the grieving. The one with the smaller loss is the one more likely to come back within profit.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
{quote} My personal belief is that if you are not making enough money, then trade more pairs. Do not increase lot size until you are out of pairs to trade.
When I close a trade I double click right on the trade and watch for a breath to make sure it is no longer going into profit. If it is going into loss (3am, passing by the screen on the way from the bathroom, funny things happen to an old man). I did push the wrong button once, and wound up saying a word.
Fifo: thank goodness our beloved government that we trust so much is protecting us!
I'm all in favor of a window which asks, when you try to close a trade in loss "you sure you want to do this." <ctl> z does not work in this case.
good trading: back to sleep
{quote} My personal belief is that if you are not making enough money, then trade more pairs. Do not increase lot size until you are out of pairs to trade.
Moving Averages:
What do I mean when I say there is a relationship between moving average indicators and my view of parent-child pushing?
A simple moving average is a history of the most recent pushes.
If the trend is up, more pushes came in going up than coming down. (they can be any kind, generally, the parents, the news, and the market opening pushes go the same way, and signal when they don't) This is momentum: The pushes will most likely keep coming.
I put 3 simple moving averages on my chart. When I see the slow, medium, and fast moving averages going my way, and spreading apart as they do. If the pushes are not already there, the most likely probability is they will be soon.
Then I get very, very aggressive. immediate trades happen more often. Take profits overlap the the next pending entry.
time to let the big dogs out. (There's nothing quite like the thrill of seeing 3 or 4 greyhounds running at full speed in a straight line right at you!)
{quote} Hey Rap thanks for enlightening us on these things, correct me if i am wrong, I usually don't trade any other pairs, never did, i only concentrated mostly on EUR/USD and occasionally GBP/JPY. But my priority was and still is EUR/USD. So i might be slighly behind when hedging using others pairs. Please bear with me. in your above example Parent and child pairs is this correct. EUR/USD and USD/CHF are parent pairs whereas EUR/CHF would be a child pair? PS, i don't feel comfortable giving my real name in a public forum, but via email or personnel...
We shall discuss a way to handle the very large number. Fortunately the number of such interrelationships is limited. You usually use them after the fact to verify you do not have a false breakout, where market peaks above the S/R line and then heads the other way. If this is not clear, ask again. Give other examples if you wish. Our understanding of this peculiar feature of the forex should be crystal clear. I enjoy doing this! When we get into the Demo it will become quite easy, ( I think).[/quote]Hey Rap, Apologies again for being keeping you behind, as i mentioned earlier i never look at other pairs so it is slightly difficult on my side but i am getting there. I have sat a few hours getting my mine around it and i think i have them correct.
I am posting only 2 child pairs now, if correct then I will post the rest of them.
(child pairs)AUD/CAD
parent pairs AUD/CHF CAD/CHF
AUD/JPY CAD/JPY
AUD/NZD NZD/CAD
AUD/USD USD/CAD
AUD/EUR EUR/CAD
GPB/AUD GPB/CAD
(child pairs)EUR/CHF
EUR/AUD AUD/CHF
EUR/CAD CAD/CHF
EUR/USD USD/CHF
EUR/GPB GPB/CHF
EUR/JPY CHF/JPY
EUR/NZD NZD/CHF
{quote} Exactly so since the two pairs show the USD being held in common. To push the child pair, EUR/CHF up would mean that one Euro buys more Swiss franks than before. The money flow is from the frank through the dollar to the Euro. (if from no where else, this would drive the pair up. So, If the EUR/USD is going up,and the USD/CHF is going up as well, it would be really weird for EUR/CHF not to go up. Bear in mind that theEUR/AUD and the AUD/CHF are also parent pairs of the same child and can also push it up. In general the more pairs you can...
(Obviously I don't know how to shorten a quote). You are correct in all of these:
Any two pairs that share a common currency are the parents of one that does not. Isn't that curious? Sorry for not answering sooner: The forex has insisted on interupting my breakfast to hand me money
That was a while ago. More since. Today has been unreal for me. What can you do with a profit factor of 1700?
This sums up the trades from the beginning of the month to some time ago, when I decided to get real aggressive( and its paying off).
Do read my posts on Moving averages and taking profits. I will send you guys files explaining stuff in detail that would just hog too much space on this thread (shy, reticent Rap Skallion)
I have thus far this month four trading days into the month closed 11 trades in profit that were
started last month. They would have been losses, had I injudiciously used fixed stop losses.
That chart cannot be true. Can it? Can it?
started last month. They would have been losses, had I injudiciously used fixed stop losses.
That chart cannot be true. Can it? Can it?
Parent child pairs;
Glossary:
Operational definition of a screamer:
Open up the close window of a pair in profit: If it is for a buy, draw a line in your mind along the bottom sashays of the trace. If that line is greater than oh, 45 degrees or so, it's a screamer. Let it scream until it stops drawing that line then close it. Usually you will re-open with a buy.
If it is for a sell, draw the line in your mind along the tops of the sashay. (do not ask me what a sashay is).
If the pair is headed for a loss, close the window, not the trade.
Glossary:
Operational definition of a screamer:
Open up the close window of a pair in profit: If it is for a buy, draw a line in your mind along the bottom sashays of the trace. If that line is greater than oh, 45 degrees or so, it's a screamer. Let it scream until it stops drawing that line then close it. Usually you will re-open with a buy.
If it is for a sell, draw the line in your mind along the tops of the sashay. (do not ask me what a sashay is).
If the pair is headed for a loss, close the window, not the trade.
- #1,575
- Mar 6, 2014 11:42am Mar 6, 2014 11:42am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trade Small, Win Big | 4,988 Posts
{quote} I see here the thinking pattern of a successful trader. A losing trader does not focus on these possibilities.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
- #1,576
- Mar 6, 2014 12:20pm Mar 6, 2014 12:20pm
I have thus far this month four trading days into the month closed 11 trades in profit that were started last month. They would have been losses, had I injudiciously used fixed stop losses. {image} That chart cannot be true. Can it? Can it?
Rap Skallion, You ROCK!!!!!!!!!!
- #1,578
- Mar 6, 2014 12:53pm Mar 6, 2014 12:53pm
Parent child pairs; Glossary: Operational definition of a screamer: Open up the close window of a pair in profit: If it is for a buy, draw a line in your mind along the bottom sashays of the trace. If that line is greater than oh, 45 degrees or so, it's a screamer. Let it scream until it stops drawing that line then close it. Usually you will re-open with a buy. If it is for a sell, draw the line in your mind along the tops of the sashay. (do not ask me what a sashay is).
I have only 5 charts currently,
Parents are EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY
The child pair is EUR/CHF......
I don't see any activity on the child pair, the EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY shot up a few hours back but the child pair went down.
The USD/CHF and the EUR/USD are opposite directions??
Now I am totally lost
and confused.
{quote} Rap, on what time frame whould you see a screamer? I have only 5 charts currently, Parents are EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY The child pair is EUR/CHF...... I don't see any activity on the child pair, the EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY shot up a few hours back but the child pair went down. The USD/CHF and the EUR/USD are opposite directions?? Now I am totally lost
The second one first. Yes. USDCHF and EURUSD have to go in opposite directions for a push to occur. Do not be dissapointed. I always get confused when working out these relationships. I write them down, come back an hour later, see some mistakes, go back , see that some of the mistakes I corrected need to be recorrected back, pretty soon I can't tell up from down. That's why you need a chart that tells you chartC: Pushed when chart A goes up and B goes down. you can't do it on the fly. You even forget about the pairs: you just look at the charts. This chart, going up, that chart, going down. AHA!
Now this gets even more confusing when some brokers use, say, USD/JPY and others use JPY/USD. (When they go opposite ways, they go the same way, er, how's that again?) I sometimes wonder if brokers do this deliberately to hide the relationship. Nah, they're just not that smart! (Neither am I).
Sometimes I get to where I just have to go do something else and come back to it later with a fresh viewpoint.
What I see here is a sign of intelligence. It is really hard to confuse a stupid person... they can't think of alternative explanations.
As for the time frame of a screamer: You only look for screamers in the close trade window. The signal changes with each tick. they can come faster than your heartbeat, or they can take minutes where you are looking at the close trade window, waiting for another tick. Just for grins the window shifts at random, either to keep the trace in sight, or to get you to hit the close button erroneously. Brokers like it when you close a trade, because you have to open another one to make more money and that's when they make theirs.
You instinctively know that when you close a screamer before it's done screaming, there would have been more money for you if you had waited.
I plan on giving you pictures of stuff like this,and a file holding which are the parents of the children and what they should be doing to push the child.
Most, almost all of the work to do this system is already done before you go to make a dime.
A young samurai came up to an old sword master and asked him how long it takes to become master of the sword. The master said "Five years, may be ten".
"how many if I concentrate very much and try really, really hard?"
"Oh, in that case, twenty"
But by Friday after next you will be wondering what was so confusing about this that you were having a hard time.
The demo will give you the skill as much as my guidance.
I took a nap, made myself a snack, sat down at the computer, saw this pair in profit. Called up the close window. Saw a screamer and took a screen shot of it.
when it crossed the 45degree line (or so). Closed it out: had I done so immediately, it would have been for less. 2+ pips for me.
Had I waited, tenterhooks on edge wondering when I should get out, the other trade which came momentarily into profit could have come and gone. Quick and easy.
No complex computations involved. Down and dirty. What about the pips I just gave my broker to get back in? Let him have them. Cost of doing business.
When you close out a trade in profit, Risk/Reward goes to infinity.
Yeah, I am aware of the concept. I just don't go to the bother of calculating it.
Only thing, don't hold your breath while you are watching a screamer scream in a close window. Its not healthy for you, and you don't look good if you are an old man with a scraggly beard who just got red in the face.