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AUD/USD

  • #73,721
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:30pm Mar 4, 2014 9:30pm
Quoting belgeran
{quote} hmms.. i thought it will go up.. but i was hoping that it will go somewhat down first... like 0.883 or 0.885.. to form that nice inverse H&S..
I'm not real great at trading this pair but I do keep an eye on it and I've noticed more then once after positive or negative news the pair gos in the opposite direction one would expect before going off in the direction it should, I'm not sure what happened here tonight but this is why I'm very cautious trading the news and rarely take trades during it anymore.
  • #73,722
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:32pm Mar 4, 2014 9:32pm
i have access for work but not a terminal, as you can just get it on installed on a local computer or have an access anywhere account. still not cheap though abt 900$ a month. from memory. would want to be trading full time and making pretty decent coin to warrant getting your own account. it is very good though
  • #73,723
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:34pm Mar 4, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting belgeran
{quote} hmms.. i thought it will go up.. but i was hoping that it will go somewhat down first... like 0.883 or 0.885.. to form that nice inverse H&S..
I have been waiting for weeks for that 8850 level but it never dropped to that level. For the current month of March, the price is supported by the monthly pivot 8912. If it ever drops to 8850, add longs there.

As long as it is above 8830, buy on dips and aim for 9150, 9200/9300
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #73,724
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:37pm Mar 4, 2014 9:37pm
Quoting Judge Dent
i have access for work but not a terminal, as you can just get it on installed on a local computer or have an access anywhere account. still not cheap though abt 900$ a month. from memory. would want to be trading full time and making pretty decent coin to warrant getting your own account. it is very good though
Yeah I checked that $900 account wouldn't give you the up-to-the-second news it would just give you the technical and fundamental analysis, the mathematical models and etc.. For the up-to-the-second news, the monthly fee is $2000 and it comes with more quant and qualitative analysis and pricing and valuation models which I don't really need.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,725
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:42pm Mar 4, 2014 9:42pm
in terms of macro release times there is no delay but i think given many banks have automated algo trading programs they look for milliseconds of advantage that a terminal system would provide. for the average retail punter its pretty slick but probably overkill given the free features available on most commercial platforms.
  • #73,726
  • Mar 4, 2014 10:27pm Mar 4, 2014 10:27pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} I'm not real great at trading this pair but I do keep an eye on it and I've noticed more then once after positive or negative news the pair gos in the opposite direction one would expect before going off in the direction it should, I'm not sure what happened here tonight but this is why I'm very cautious trading the news and rarely take trades during it anymore.
As irongoose points out above, even if you have the news what are you going to do with it. Take the GDP release, reports from 8 different specialists (banks, Speculators, traders sites (forexdaily etc) ) place the raise anywhere between 0.55 to 0.9 even with a 0.9 you cannot be guaranteed dollar will go up.

I guess knowing a news release is coming so that you are out of the market all together but if you trade this way, do you close even in the red prior to news release?
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,727
  • Mar 4, 2014 10:31pm Mar 4, 2014 10:31pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Thanks so much for the info. But according to the number, AU should be going up higher? The number is higher than that of the last month.
You mean the Chinese Services PMI (Feb) was better than January's by like .3 and the Aud/Usd should've gone up because of it?
  • #73,728
  • Mar 4, 2014 10:39pm Mar 4, 2014 10:39pm
Commonwealth Bank's view on Australian GDP beat
  • #73,729
  • Mar 4, 2014 10:57pm Mar 4, 2014 10:57pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} You mean the Chinese Services PMI (Feb) was better than January's by like .3 and the Aud/Usd should've gone up because of it?
Well it shouldn't go down at least. It's still a better number even if it's by 0.3. It's at least not -0.3.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,730
  • Mar 4, 2014 11:03pm Mar 4, 2014 11:03pm
it depends on the trader, what data is coming out and if you have a conviction view or not. sometimes people square up prior to big releases as they dont like the volatility for others this is what they trade for. for me its more to know what is coming out and not trying to range trade a market that has been rattled by some release that has wrong footed a lot of analysts. if a market spikes or falls but the data is largely in line with forecasts then it can be a good entry. sometimes the effect of data is delayed, ie Chinese PMI on base metals as the real trade flow happens as london comes in later in the day. the most useful aspect of bloomberg eco function is not the speed it comes out but that is shows you the consensus view of analysts/economists survey from all the leading banks that make up the forecast. generally the biggest moves on data come when there is a broad consensus and they are proven wrong as all the guys at the banks and brokerages are looking at this same screen to see the release and also to see what the market is expecting. the gdp today was pretty mixed in terms of forecasting
  • #73,731
  • Mar 4, 2014 11:15pm Mar 4, 2014 11:15pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Well it shouldn't go down at least. It's still a better number even if it's by 0.3. It's at least not -0.3.
Think what would affect the Australian economy more.. Chinese Manufacturing from the world's largest exporter & Australia's largest importer or Chinese services (Business services, Logistics, Financial, Tourism) which pertains to China's domestic economy. Now compare February's Manufacturing PMI which is China's largest sector.. to their Services outlook.

Services PMI is a reason for liquidity to be pulled. Don't trade every Chinese PMI the same. There are traders that know this and will use your liquidity to trade against for their own benefit.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A2202H20140303
  • #73,732
  • Mar 4, 2014 11:25pm Mar 4, 2014 11:25pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Think what would affect the Australian economy more.. Chinese Manufacturing from the world's largest exporter & Australia's largest importer or Chinese services (Business services, Logistics, Financial, Tourism) which pertains to China's domestic economy. Now compare February's Manufacturing PMI which is China's largest sector.. to their Services outlook. Services PMI is a reason for liquidity to be pulled. Don't trade every Chinese PMI the same. There are traders that know this and will use your liquidity to trade against for their own...
But still all sectors all belong to one Chinese economy. Yes the manufacturing sector would import more from Australia but the service sector is still tied into its manufacturing counterparts. A stronger albeit slightly stronger service PMI shouldn't warrant a drop in AU. It would make the price stand still after the rocket launch due to the GDP number maybe but not a drop.

Anyway the price is coming back up now.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,733
  • Mar 4, 2014 11:30pm Mar 4, 2014 11:30pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Well it shouldn't go down at least. It's still a better number even if it's by 0.3. It's at least not -0.3.
The prior number is of no real importance unless there is a noticeable revision .
The average consensus figure is what you should weigh it up against .
If there is no consensus figure available before release (as in this case) , analysts / algos will sift through the breakdown of the released data
and conclude what the implications are .
  • #73,734
  • Mar 4, 2014 11:30pm Mar 4, 2014 11:30pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} But still all sectors all belong to one Chinese economy. Yes the manufacturing sector would import more from Australia but the service sector is still tied into its manufacturing counterparts. A stronger albeit slightly stronger service PMI shouldn't warrant a drop in AU. It would make the price stand still after the rocket launch due to the GDP number maybe but not a drop. Anyway the price is coming back up now.
You're saying "shouldn't" like its a known thing. The Manufacturing sector is by far China's largest sector and pertains more to global growth that their minuscule Services sector.
There are other forces at work pertaining to A/U's spike and why 0.900 wasnt hit but instead sold off. hint; think digital options and their underwriters(banks) would profit from them.
  • #73,735
  • Mar 4, 2014 11:32pm Mar 4, 2014 11:32pm
Quoting Judge Dent
it depends on the trader, what data is coming out and if you have a conviction view or not. sometimes people square up prior to big releases as they dont like the volatility for others this is what they trade for. for me its more to know what is coming out and not trying to range trade a market that has been rattled by some release that has wrong footed a lot of analysts. if a market spikes or falls but the data is largely in line with forecasts then it can be a good entry. sometimes the effect of data is delayed, ie Chinese PMI on base metals as...
Yes good point.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,736
  • Mar 5, 2014 12:07am Mar 5, 2014 12:07am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} You're saying "shouldn't" like its a known thing. The Manufacturing sector is by far China's largest sector and pertains more to global growth that their minuscule Services sector. There are other forces at work pertaining to A/U's spike and why 0.900 wasnt hit but instead sold off. hint; think digital options and their underwriters(banks) would profit from them.
No way.. are you saying it is all corrupt as if the bankers and therefore the government are playing the market for their own gain. So if the US went to Mr Buffet and said, hey you know the story you have been sitting on... release it now... oh wait that happened.. IMHO

um thinking of something really out there. The missile launch that the US knew about for months in advance but failed to tell anybody else, what would they possibly have to gain from keeping this secret. - a quick panic buy to jolt the market maybe?

Are you saying that the RBA would not plan a statement release, you mean they do not just get up and tell the figures straight - no they sit in a room deliberating for weeks on the right message to portray to move the market in a direction they would prefer. Each and every single word is chosen very carefully, drafted numerous times and approved for final release. All countries do this to a degree and if they don't should be taken over by Russia.

A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,737
  • Mar 5, 2014 1:00am Mar 5, 2014 1:00am
EmeraldEyes,I think on aus today we had a gartley pattern ,618 fib, 886 fib, and trend line resistance all converging cheers
  • #73,738
  • Mar 5, 2014 1:16am Mar 5, 2014 1:16am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} No way.. are you saying it is all corrupt as if the bankers and therefore the government are playing the market for their own gain. So if the US went to Mr Buffet and said, hey you know the story you have been sitting on... release it now... oh wait that happened.. IMHO um thinking of something really out there. The missile launch that the US knew about for months in advance but failed to tell anybody else, what would they possibly have to gain from keeping this secret. - a quick panic buy to jolt the market maybe? Are you saying that the...
lol.. sorry man, but you totally lost me. Are you referring to what I said about the AU0.900 barrier options? Those are very real. FX Dealers post-GDP release have reported very large offers coming in to and absorbing market buying to protect that level from being hit.
  • #73,739
  • Mar 5, 2014 1:17am Mar 5, 2014 1:17am
Quoting eklein
EmeraldEyes,I think on aus today we had a gartley pattern ,618 fib, 886 fib, and trend line resistance all converging cheers
I used to use gartleys, thought they gave foresight in to upcoming price, but they don't. Historic price is the worst predictor of future price. :/
  • #73,740
  • Mar 5, 2014 1:29am Mar 5, 2014 1:29am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} There are other forces at work pertaining to A/U's spike and why 0.900 wasnt hit but instead sold off. hint; think digital options and their underwriters(banks) would profit from them.
Emerald, I was referring to this and blew it all out of context, threw in a bit of poetic license and well just sprewed verbal diarrhea to tell the truth.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
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