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How do you trade news?

  • #121
  • Jul 12, 2006 7:44am Jul 12, 2006 7:44am
Quoting FXopportunist
We sure are spoiled lately on the data plays aren't we??
Firdays non farm was a one way train, last nights pound went 50 in one direction immediatlely and, finally, Today's CAD play was a one way train.
gotta love some opportunities in such a lousy intra day market.
So was it the news in the UK in the early morning that caused all of my positions to change direction and jump over night?

I woke up to some bad trades... all demo though - it was good a thing in practice though, I wanted to see how wild things might get if stops were missed or not in play.

And are we to assume that any orange or red news item on the calendar can cause this? How can anyone trade intraday with this kind of constant disruption?

J
  • #122
  • Jul 12, 2006 1:09pm Jul 12, 2006 1:09pm
Quoting FXopportunist
We sure are spoiled lately on the data plays aren't we??
Firdays non farm was a one way train, last nights pound went 50 in one direction immediatlely and, finally, Today's CAD play was a one way train.
gotta love some opportunities in such a lousy intra day market.
If you backtest the NFP, you will see that it's almost always a one way train for a specific amount of time. It's one of the main news events I trade because my success rate with my strategy is pretty high.
Mr. Trend
  • #123
  • Jul 12, 2006 4:10pm Jul 12, 2006 4:10pm
Quoting Mr Trend
If you backtest the NFP, you will see that it's almost always a one way train for a specific amount of time. It's one of the main news events I trade because my success rate with my strategy is pretty high.
The question of the day is: what scenarios and market condition are present when the nasty stoploss shreading whipsaws show up??
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #124
  • Jul 12, 2006 4:12pm Jul 12, 2006 4:12pm
Quoting jlowder
So was it the news in the UK in the early morning that caused all of my positions to change direction and jump over night?

I woke up to some bad trades... all demo though - it was good a thing in practice though, I wanted to see how wild things might get if stops were missed or not in play.

And are we to assume that any orange or red news item on the calendar can cause this? How can anyone trade intraday with this kind of constant disruption?

J
This constant disruption is exactly the kind of thing intraday traders love.
You just have to know what to do with it.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #125
  • Jul 12, 2006 4:12pm Jul 12, 2006 4:12pm
Quoting Mr Trend
If you backtest the NFP, you will see that it's almost always a one way train for a specific amount of time. It's one of the main news events I trade because my success rate with my strategy is pretty high.
How many pips would you use for a TP?
  • #126
  • Edited 6:10pm Jul 12, 2006 5:57pm | Edited 6:10pm
Quoting FXopportunist
The question of the day is: what scenarios and market condition are present when the nasty stoploss shreading whipsaws show up??
And that's a question that you shouldn't worry about. If you try to figure out the market, you will lose in the end. The best you can do is establish a strategy, backtest it, and if it works, then stick with it. In essence, you shouldn't worry about whipsaws, unless you can develop a strategy that takes advantage of them. Whipsaws are a fact of trading. Everyone and their brother tries to detect whipsaws. No one can reliably predict when they're actually in a whipsaw... if you can, then you'll be rich.

But you also have to talk about time as well. If you look at the NFP on a 1 hour chart, well sure you can say it whipsaws. But look at the last five reports on a five minute timeframe and see if you see the same thing.

A lot of people try to capture the entire move. I don't need to catch the entire move. 80 pips in 10 minutes is good enough for me. Matter of fact, after the 10 minutes is up, I shut down the machine, and start my weekend from trading...

I wish every Friday was NFP...
Mr. Trend
  • #127
  • Jul 12, 2006 5:58pm Jul 12, 2006 5:58pm
Quoting falcon232
How many pips would you use for a TP?
I use an 80 pip profit target.
Mr. Trend
  • #128
  • Jul 12, 2006 7:25pm Jul 12, 2006 7:25pm
Quoting Mr Trend
And that's a question that you shouldn't worry about. If you try to figure out the market, you will lose in the end. The best you can do is establish a strategy, backtest it, and if it works, then stick with it. In essence, you shouldn't worry about whipsaws, unless you can develop a strategy that takes advantage of them. Whipsaws are a fact of trading. Everyone and their brother tries to detect whipsaws. No one can reliably predict when they're actually in a whipsaw... if you can, then you'll be rich.

But you also have to talk about time as well. If you look at the NFP on a 1 hour chart, well sure you can say it whipsaws. But look at the last five reports on a five minute timeframe and see if you see the same thing.

A lot of people try to capture the entire move. I don't need to catch the entire move. 80 pips in 10 minutes is good enough for me. Matter of fact, after the 10 minutes is up, I shut down the machine, and start my weekend from trading...

I wish every Friday was NFP...
I 2nd the non-farm wish!!!

As for not worrying about whipsaws and just backtesting, I cannot agree. Derpending on what u mean by backtesting, I agree it is essential and useful. But, As far as not applying immediate economic conditions and sentiment to one's trading strategies is a non starter for me. I increase my profits and trim my losses by being concious of ther pitfalls of ambiguous economic conditions. Another bad situation is data that is in stark contrast to the current trend. Being aware of these correllations can be the differnce between getting out quick on a spike and banking profits or taking a stop out loss. Conversely, If the data is in agreement with sentiment and trend I trail my stops and often garner well over 100 pips. Either way I use multiple lot positions and staged profit taking on data. once it is 20 pips up I immediatley change my stop to my entry price.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #129
  • Jul 12, 2006 9:03pm Jul 12, 2006 9:03pm
I'll have to take FXOpportunist and Mr. Trend one step further - make everyday NFP!!! Bring it on!

As long as you've got a stable platform, steady finger and secure stomach (not necessarily in that order), you can make a very decent living trading NFP once a month. As Opportunist suggests: multiple lots, profit-taking and stop loss adjustments: the news trader's basics. Take your money, turn of the screen and go fishin' or golfin' or walkin' or whatever. Great start to the weekend.

On the other hand, applying backtesting to present-day expectations absent the socio-economic and political vagaries gives rise to that old caveat: "Past performance is no guarantee of future success", or some such nonsense. Be here now....
  • #130
  • Jul 12, 2006 9:18pm Jul 12, 2006 9:18pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
As long as you've got a stable platform, steady finger and secure stomach (not necessarily in that order), you can make a very decent living trading NFP once a month.
Yes you can. That's all you would have to trade.
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Bring it on!
Fa' sho'!
Mr. Trend
  • #131
  • Jul 13, 2006 3:31am Jul 13, 2006 3:31am
Quoting Mr Trend
If you backtest the NFP, you will see that it's almost always a one way train for a specific amount of time. It's one of the main news events I trade because my success rate with my strategy is pretty high.
What broker are you using? I tried to trade yesterday's trade balance and got slipped 22 pips.
  • #132
  • Jul 13, 2006 4:31am Jul 13, 2006 4:31am
I'm trading on Oanda and get zero to very tiny slippage even during NFP and major news. I love the NFP, like others have mentioned jump on the train and make some money. If initial reaction on news is luke warm I might cancel my orders, but usually reaction is explosive. Just need to watch out for big revisions to prior numbers. I wish the news services would cover revisions better. They usually keep gabbing about the main news even though a prior revision is something I need to know pronto. I really wish they would just release any revisions the day before.
  • #133
  • Jul 13, 2006 4:58am Jul 13, 2006 4:58am
where do you guys get your numbers from, ie NFP and other news related items, the second there released. whenever i see them there always about 30sec later and im already missing out on the opportunity to jump in!!!!
  • #134
  • Jul 13, 2006 5:12am Jul 13, 2006 5:12am
I watch bloomberg on satalite TV. Bloomberg is also webcast, but it is about a minute off (too frustrating to watch).

What I'd like to know is what TV source is fastest. I've noticed with neighbors watching sporting events that the same program can be off by a second or 2 based on whether it is Cable, DishTV or DirectTv etc. So which one would give you the slight advantage? Anyone know
  • #135
  • Jul 13, 2006 6:10am Jul 13, 2006 6:10am
Quoting Keys
I watch bloomberg on satalite TV. Bloomberg is also webcast, but it is about a minute off (too frustrating to watch).
I use the indicators here on FF, as well as FXStreet. I listen to Bloomberg on the net and so far this combination has proven successful for me, but remember MONEY MANAGEMENT!
a journey of a thousand trades begins with a single pip
  • #136
  • Jul 13, 2006 9:56am Jul 13, 2006 9:56am
Quoting jessieblue
What broker are you using? I tried to trade yesterday's trade balance and got slipped 22 pips.
Oanda.
Mr. Trend
  • #137
  • Jul 13, 2006 11:04am Jul 13, 2006 11:04am
Quoting SirPipsAlot
where do you guys get your numbers from, ie NFP and other news related items, the second there released. whenever i see them there always about 30sec later and im already missing out on the opportunity to jump in!!!!
With most successful strategies you don't need to know any numbers to trade NFP.

Dane
  • #138
  • Jul 13, 2006 11:28am Jul 13, 2006 11:28am
For the successful news traders here:

1) What are your success rates?
2) What else do you look forward to trade besides NFP and Interest Rate Announcments?

Thanks.
  • #139
  • Jul 13, 2006 3:13pm Jul 13, 2006 3:13pm
Quoting great*dane
With most successful strategies you don't need to know any numbers to trade NFP.

Dane
Dane, you hit it on the head. And I think that's a problem that people get too wrapped up in -- I've said this before and I know some prominent authors have said it as well (which is where I've learned it) -- You don't need to know what will happen next to make money.

When you can let go of the fact that you have to be right, you will start making money. If you can't let go of that, you will lose.

And that's why 90% of all traders lose money. Because they have to be right.

Pride isn't one of the seven deadly sins for nothing, ya know.
Mr. Trend
  • #140
  • Jul 13, 2006 3:16pm Jul 13, 2006 3:16pm
Quoting falcon232
For the successful news traders here:

1) What are your success rates?
2) What else do you look forward to trade besides NFP and Interest Rate Announcments?

Thanks.
I define success as news trading for at least a year and keeping my mistakes down at a minimum while following my plan. It hasn't been a year yet, unfortunately.

I trade nothing more than the NFP, when it comes to news. I'm demo'ing my strategy on interest rate announcements right now...
Mr. Trend
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