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AUD/USD

  • #73,581
  • Mar 3, 2014 6:12pm Mar 3, 2014 6:12pm
Looks like bearish divergence on stochs 833 and rsi 8 (1hr)
  • #73,582
  • Mar 3, 2014 6:29pm Mar 3, 2014 6:29pm
Oct 30 when the Building Approvals came out it was forcasted at 2.8% and came in at 14.4% and the market only moved 40 pips and then later on went down!
  • #73,583
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:11pm Mar 3, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting irongoose
Oct 30 when the Building Approvals came out it was forcasted at 2.8% and came in at 14.4% and the market only moved 40 pips and then later on went down!
You using the past to predict the future? jk jk
  • #73,584
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:19pm Mar 3, 2014 7:19pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} You using the past to predict the future? jk jk
Just an observation.
  • #73,585
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:31pm Mar 3, 2014 7:31pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} You using the past to predict the future? jk jk
We do have two large pins on the 15 min chart now pointing up, the third candle since the release being the largest. It would appear they used the news to take out stops in the area you talked about earlier, needless to say I'll be keeping an eye on this looking for an entry short.
  • #73,586
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:46pm Mar 3, 2014 7:46pm
i think we best wait to see how market reacts to RBA statment
FailOrRiseEX
  • #73,587
  • Edited 7:59pm Mar 3, 2014 7:49pm | Edited 7:59pm
Theoretically..if the RBA increased the cash rate to 2.75 or 3.00 or 3.25..how far up would the Aussie be expected to go? I'm assuming that it would go up..?
  • #73,588
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:54pm Mar 3, 2014 7:54pm
Quoting Belka13
i think we best wait to see how market reacts to RBA statment
I trade ranges and levels and try not to hold trades for days at a time, I'm strictly short term.
  • #73,589
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:00pm Mar 3, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
Theoretically..if the RBA increased the cash rate to 2.75 or 3.00 or 3.25..how far up would the Aussie be expected to go? I'm assuming that it would go up..?
which won't happen.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #73,590
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:00pm Mar 3, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} I trade ranges and levels and try not to hold trades for days at a time, I'm strictly short term.
And you are definitely right, we should wait or exit trades or move stops to break even before the RBA Rate Statement.
  • #73,591
  • Edited 8:15pm Mar 3, 2014 8:04pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} which won't happen.
How do you know it wont though?..It might, none of us know unless we're an insider at the RBA..
Statistically speaking from a historical point of view I don't see it as something that couldn't be viable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussieprecashrate3.png Size: 8 KB

I guess though, only time will tell.
Edit: After looking more into the adjustments historically I do have to say that if an increase did happen, the chances are it would be a +25 basis points change
(I.e Increase to 2.75)
  • #73,592
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:22pm Mar 3, 2014 8:22pm
everybody is expecting RBA to be neutral however i ve found traces on the web saying that the end of the mining boom in oz could push the RBA to cut rates and that would be i guess wonderful cause i ll aim yearly lows and that could happen anytime even today but not likely well we ll see
if rates doesn change we still can see if the meeting board will affect the market otherwise it s a nonotrade for me
FailOrRiseEX
  • #73,593
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:31pm Mar 3, 2014 8:31pm
Quoting Belka13
everybody is expecting RBA to be neutral however i ve found traces on the web saying that the end of the mining boom in oz could push the RBA to cut rates and that would be i guess wonderful cause i ll aim yearly lows and that could happen anytime even today but not likely well we ll see if rates doesn change we still can see if the meeting board will affect the market otherwise it s a nonotrade for me
That's quite an interesting view actually. I just finished reading this from last February:
http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2014/mr-14-01.html
And it would appear low interest rates are favoured at the moment. They may very well have enough reasoning to push the cash rate down to 2.25 as a result. The head of the RBA has made no secret he wants the Aussie to see 85 cents to aid in a recovery through increased export receipts. I definitely never trust what the analysts have to say, only a fool would take their opinion in all truth. I have to say, if the Cash Rate does go down a short trade definitely may prove to be a very nice opportunity like you say. Guess we'll know in 30 minutes eh
  • #73,594
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:32pm Mar 3, 2014 8:32pm
The RBA will most likely won't change the cash rate, but it's the sentiment of the govenors speech that is imposible to predict.
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #73,595
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:33pm Mar 3, 2014 8:33pm
Quoting AussieForexM
The RBA will most likely won't change the cash rate, but it's the sentiment of the govenors speech that is imposible to predict.
Where can his speech be found do you know? Is it live anywhere online? Or posted as an article somewhere?
  • #73,596
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:40pm Mar 3, 2014 8:40pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Where can his speech be found do you know? Is it live anywhere online? Or posted as an article somewhere?
http://www.rba.gov.au/
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #73,597
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:43pm Mar 3, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} http://www.rba.gov.au/
Ah of course, same place as I read his other one
Thanks.
  • #73,598
  • Mar 3, 2014 9:03pm Mar 3, 2014 9:03pm
AUD @ .8941

RBA rate change I expect unchanged like the other 99.99% of punters.

Direction of where they will go next is unclear.

Housing market is strong so unless there is a definite indication of cash buyers Int rates wont come off.

The economy is relatively weak as unemployment starts to rise and RBA wont raise rates in fear of that.

Inflation is on the rise not because of wages but because of a weaker ccy.

Further weakness of the ccy will see inflation rise further.

So are the RBA in a predicament or do they have the market right where they want it ?

Im thinking the latter and 86-91 seems to be their ideal band.

Play the range.

Happy hunting
  • #73,599
  • Mar 3, 2014 9:24pm Mar 3, 2014 9:24pm
Quoting lasty
AUD @ .8941 RBA rate change I expect unchanged like the other 99.99% of punters. Direction of where they will go next is unclear. Housing market is strong so unless there is a definite indication of cash buyers Int rates wont come off. The economy is relatively weak as unemployment starts to rise and RBA wont raise rates in fear of that. Inflation is on the rise not because of wages but because of a weaker ccy. Further weakness of the ccy will see inflation rise further. So are the RBA in a predicament or do they have the market right where they...
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A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #73,600
  • Mar 3, 2014 9:31pm Mar 3, 2014 9:31pm
wow its like a tug of war going on
Everything you want lies on the other side of fear.
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