Well, that trade worked out well, even though I did have to wait a little longer than I thought I would have. Took an even 100 pips out.
Meanwhile, GBPNZD is almost to my order, but GBPUSD looks like its going to fall a little over 100 pips from here. I went short GBPUSD about an hour ago. It should make another low below 1.6580 soon, and about that time I figure GBPNZD will be around 1.9800-----where I want to buy.
NZDUSD hit .8420, .8423 to be exact. Should be the top, I think. Now GBPNZD needs to go a little lower, so I'm thinking GBPUSD will have a nice fall here----faster than NZDUSD. Got in a little early on GBPUSD short---as fucking usual---but still looks likely to go below 1.6580 before making a long term bottom.
I trade this pair on 5 min char .. it's hard to trade it sometimes because it has big volatility (150 pip per day ) also i use D1 - H4 - H1 to help me see where the price can move .. i trade with naked chart and no indicators ... Now we are at 2,0000 .. If it breaks the resistance at 2,0200 then we will go to 2,0400 .. today GBP/NZD is dancing but as i see this pair in the next days maybe weeks it could touch or break the resistance at 2,0200
I'm thinking GBPNZD might go to 1.9750 area, given that GBPUSD still has another 100 pips to fall from here. This is tricky right now, but so far GBPUSD still looks like we'll see another drop before a major bull run.
It is possible GBPUSD has already bottomed, but I don't think so. Watching for any strong sign that it has. Lowered my order on GBPNZD buy 20 pips.
Was hoping we'd get the fake break today, but apparently market wants to clear the bush. That's basically what is happening here. The market is getting all untested spots out of the way so that nothing will stop it when it returns. That's my interpretation anyways.
I don't think GBPUSD has much left in this latest move. Meanwhile, NZDUSD looks to be at/extremely close to a long-term high.
We probably won't see the break downwards in GBPUSD until Friday. It makes sense. Was wishful thinking on my part to think that GBPUSD might break and fake today. It will be more convincing on Friday when the #'s come out. Tensions are always high, and we'll see a lot of traders selling the break, aka "the low". Then we'll have many more shorting from various fibs as price climbs back upwards, only to be disappointed and surprised when they realize it was not a break down, and they just got tricked again! I am not making fun of them. It has happened to me more times that I care to admit.
I'm already short GBPUSD from 1.6687. Entered that one on Friday. Not the greatest entry point, but what matters is did you win or not, and what was risked compared to what was gained. Anyways, now would not be a bad time to go short GBPUSD for a 125 pip target and 100 pip SL. Looks good to me.
Adjusting buy limit back to original order at 1.9800. I am more concerned with missing an entry at/below 1.9800, than I am of getting in 20-30 pips lower. I am going for 1200 pips here, and my stop is over 330 pips, so % wise its not a big deal.
1200 pips is a big #, and so is 330 pips for that matter, but it is all relative to what you are risking on the trade. In reality, it is a 1:3 trade if all goes well. That's not to say I risk the same amount on every trade I take, but the % risked does not diverge too much. I keep it in the 3-5% range. Its just very dangerous to risk much more than that on any single trade.
Now, real money can be made by pyramiding, but it can bite you in the ass just as easily. You really gotta be careful adding to a position, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. I don't force the issue. I don't HAVE to add size if the trade goes my way and I feel it has a lot further to go. I add size if I see good spots along the way, and feel like the market is not going to be at the current price much longer (will not go against me much further).
You can also take partial profits if market looks like it might take a breather before resuming along your projected path. Then add the size back in at a better price. If I am really sure about something, I just get out and try to get in at a better price, as I did (well, trying to do) with this GBPNZD trade. I took other trades in the meantime, while waiting to get back into GBPNZD at a lower price than where I took profits. All of this can blow up in your face, or it can magnify your profits on a correct call exponentially. It is worth the effort to get good at pyramiding, though.
NZDUSD went a little further than I thought it would, but nothing I didn't rule out. It should be heading down very, very soon if it hasn't already topped.
GBPUSD still looks the same to me. Need that fake break lower.
This brings us to GBPNZD. It looks to have bottomed, which means that NZDUSD should head down harder than GBPUSD in the short term. Or they could go down fairly evenly while GBPNZD just drifts sideways.
In any case, got the order filled at 1.9800 and everything still looks good.
You don't need to be perfect to win. It took me a long time to realize this. Give a trade some room for error, and never risk more than your targeting. Don't risk more than 5% on each trade. Don't get into a bunch of trades at the same time. Set realistic targets. And always believe in yourself no matter how many set backs you have.