AUD/USD

someone wrote data are positive, others are negative................

In line with forecast, up to you to take that as positive or negative.

It was suggested to me that because I mentioned this forum within my book, it may be an idea to start dropping my monthly moan in here. So, I have done below.


Now, I know that you lot can be a tough crowd to please; and with an Aussie bent to humour and criticism, I hope that any salvos of critique do not include throwing beer bottles my way. Spitting, too, is prohibited.

Monthly moan ending February 2014

As balconies go, the one that I was looking at a week ago was not amongst the most ornate. Indeed, if not for the building that it was attached to, the balcony could have been located in any European city that aspired to give a little semblance of artistic influence to its presentation.

As it was, this particular balcony just so happened to be attached to the Palazzo Vecchio, in Florence, Italy. And which is perhaps why it was a little cheap-looking... as standards go in this part of the world.

For those that wish to visualise how this balcony appears, it is the one that faces the Piazza della Signoria square. It’s also apparently where Francesco Pazzi was hanged after the failed Pazzi conspiracy. An event orchestrated by the Pazzi family of bankers - and hired assassins - in order to overthrow the de' Medici family’s financial hold over Florence. Dear me, they’re a nasty bunch, are those that like to control money.

Oh, and it is also the balcony where Dr. Hannibal Lecter is shown to cut the guts out of inspector Rinaldo Pazzi, before throwing him off the side. With, I might add, a length of throat-warmer attached firmly around his neck. (I think it’s a tradition kind of thing.)

Ah… Italy. The land of fine coffee, dirty politics, exquisite Parma prosciutto, tax-evasion, and, of course, bunga bunga. Erm, no, I mean dolce vita.

And life there certainly seems to be in this land of fine living; all of it walking around in a style that in itself requires the eye of he who appreciates the classic look, to wander far from his training of gentlemanly propriety. But then, well, I’m a man that appreciates the Renaissance, and beyond, and so do keep my eye open for any modern masterpieces that may pass my way.

I was also keeping my eye open for any action up on the balcony of barbarous butchery, overlooking, as it did, my seating down in the composed café below. Yes, one could argue that I should have perhaps been more interested in reading a little Dante, but why read of such constricting desperation to life, when
instead, one can admire the view whilst eating a fine pasta.
It was a dish taken al fresco style, while I wondered if I could be whacked - across the head, that is - if I chose to take a little nibble from some of the fine meat walking by me.

Thankfully, my reserve was maintained, and thus my enjoyment of the afternoon was not spoilt as I sat and thought about if the Italians ever stop talking. Either between themselves, or on their mobile telephones. Pff, I think they must have shattered eardrums, or brain cancer from the constant holding of a telephone to their ears, as they all seemed to shout at the telephones, whilst waving their arms in all directions. A peculiar act, to me, as the receiver of a call cannot see the caller.

Anyway, this constant gesticulation may have been spurred on by the fact that the President of the Italian Republic, Giorgio Napolitano - who is elected by parliament, not the electorate – has asked the major of Florence, Matteo Renzi, to form a government. This means that the Italian population will once again be handed a leader that, popular or not, has no publically-endorsed mandate to dictate. But then, well, when did democracy ever get in the way of such Machiavellian tendencies?

Now don’t get me wrong, I rather like what I’m hearing from Matteo Renzi – his disgust at modern politics in Italy, and greater Europe, striking several chords with not just me, but the increasingly impoverished that I saw roaming the streets of Florence. Yet, as I looked towards the balcony of broken bramosia, I did give thought as to whether the Italian population, progressively suffering from fast-falling incomes, would show that they have finally had enough of unelected politicians being tapped on the shoulder, before being put into lucrative high office.

Indeed, as I watched half of Africa selling mobile phone cases, and counterfeit goods of all design, to a passing public that may not have understood these immigrants’ desperation to send a Euro back home to the wife and kids, I did consider how according to the OECD, representatives of the Italian Government are paid well above any other parliamentarians within Europe. They also enjoy the highest income gap between their take from their national pot, and what the rest of the Italian population can hope to receive as their cut.

That said, maybe Matteo Renzi, often labelled ‘il Rottamatore’, and which in English means the scrapper, may just be the man to turn things around in Italy. For whom, I’m not sure, but Italian bonds have reacted positively to the nod to appoint him as the youngest ever Don… and I don’t mean as a fellow for Oxbridge. Hmm, do the money-men know something about this that the rest of us do not?
Regardless, this favourable return for the investors probably explained why my afternoon was fairly uneventful; the true powers that be, currently satisfied, and so allowing democracy to be prostituted once more to the whim of the powerful; the absence of any scarlet-coloured stomach scattering upon the floor of the Piazza della Signoria square, providing some conformation to this analysis.

And so it was that my day was slowly taken over by my considered amusement at how those in Italy that are actually trying to do the right thing, are told by the government that they cannot.

I refer, should the reader wish to know, to how the true prostitutes of Italy have been trying for years to pay taxes on their ‘salaries’, but refused the right to do so as their profession has proved difficult for the Italian Government to categorise. Or to put it more precisely, proved a profession that the Italian Government wish not to be recognised by any statute of occupation that may besmirch the wished-for presentation of Italian culture to the world.

This state of suspension from satisfactory society seems to be about to change, as, in the age of the clampdown upon tax evaders, the currency of the working-girl is now being accepted into the government coffer.

Kind of, that is, as in true Italian red-tape fashion, the authorities have decided that the best way to collect this ‘unpaid’ tax, is to haul the laced-covered bottoms of prostitutes into court, and then fine them for all of the years that they could not pay their share. And we are talking large sums here; with one prostitute saying that the government’s estimation of her yearly earnings was ridiculous, and that she only earned around twenty thousand Euros… that, by the way, is per month.

Bugger me, that’s a take that is on a par with the politicians in this country. Politicians that will be guaranteed that which the prostitutes are currently trying to secure by paying taxes: a state pension.

I wonder if these ladies can claim tax-deductible expenses that could include such items as torn tights, broken buttons… prostrated plastic protections that prevent many an Italian wife from unexpected paternity petitions.

Europe: It’s a wonderful example of how those that actually exhibit moral behaviour are treated like criminals, whilst those that hide their immorality underneath the right suits, are often venerated by a public that admire their status and wealth… this privilege often arising from the investment within killing machines in far-off lands, or financial bullets aimed at the very public that know not what it is that they support.

The AUDUSD is now having trouble holding gains. Although it is possible a run toward 0.9200 occurs in the coming weeks/months right now if 0.8910 breaks the play will be short.

Currently the pair’s trend has changed and is now slightly bearish.

It looks like the support level of 0.8910 will be tested this coming week. I will be looking to buy on any test of the 0.8800 level.

Let’s take a look at the charts in the video together to see.

may i know how did you manage to sell at almost the top of the reversal at 0.8980 ?
at that time it was bull and not looking as if it is going down

Hi Jimmyboy88, I was short at 0.8980 because that time, it was simple break above overbought on my 1H TF bolinger band. Same Goes when I closed my green short at 0.8926..simply coz it was break down to my oversold. .Of course, if you want to play more longer TF u can use 4H. For these upcoming week, we should see what Monday price will be in AUD.

in -ve but a trade is trade based on my set of trading conditions.

Tomorrow we will know if AUD to continue south or to resume north?

So on Saturday, China released their February Manufacturing PMI in as expected at 50.2.
Later on today, HSBC Holdings releases their own Chinese Manufacturing PMI for February, expected to be even lower at 48.5 than their January release of 49.5.

HSBC Cred > Chinese Gov. Cred

Chinese Yuan flows & Manufac data have been pushing the AUD around as much as Australian data has recently.

Still holding short from friday

I am waiting for tomorrow

Just went short 3 lots. Come at me bro.

Just hit my long limit order at 0.8892. Lets see how this plays out... Hopefully when China dream up thier figures in my favour and we see 0.9070 :-) If not I'll end up taking a small hit :-)

Retesting this channel break & triaangle breakout before continuing lower

While other friends are short, I just open my long. Of course, prepared also if I mistaken later..

What TF are you trading man? Looks like your set up, E&E are based on M5 Technicals but your holding your trades for days?

despite turmoil in the Ukraine and rotten Chinese data smashing base metals the AUD proving incredibly stubborn.
been short at 8975 for about almost a week looking for a breakdown. TP in 8775, stop at 9125
barely any cash in my account so trading with next to no leverage.

starting to think i should just trade it on dailys instead of holding. aud jpy would have been better for directional

Touched off Kijun on the 30M chart, could be in for a bit more downside.
1M chart also showing a TK cross, however it is above the cloud so short potential but not strong movement.

1M just crossed again and is hugging the kijun so position reversed but in for a nice bull run. I have hedged.

Sl at BE. Usually I move to BE on higher lows but I don't usually trade Mondays either so I'll play it safe... Roll on 0.907

I see alot of you guys are short but it might be about to make a Higher low on the Daily so perhaps she'll make it to next resistance.

GL which ever way your on!