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  • #81
  • Edited 1:57pm Feb 25, 2014 1:35pm | Edited 1:57pm
Hey Risk, having some great calls thus far. I think I'll learn a lot from you.

For yesterday's ES open drive , do you still follow the main open types (Eg Open Drive) as studied by Pete/Dalton or one of the earlier pioneers of AMT? I see we got the P shape profile. Those P days are quite nasty.

As for those charts from post 73, the levels marked, ( Exact Call IMHO!) are they from the composite or the previous day's levels. It seems they occur just above 2 LVN's.

SGP, (Singapore Bufet? ) On the futures side of the business, I've never come across trade explorers or myfxbook. I think its got something to do with the fact that maybe, he doesn't trade spot fx, but instead looks at currency futures. Of course, I might be wrong. Additionally, So far, all levels have been identified prior to the market moving towards them, so I see no harm. To top it off, I can't remember the OP saying anything about posting TRADE CALLS? If I maybe missed it, please by all means, point it out to me. . OP, If I've posted anything out of line, I'm pretty sure that it can be edited to create a diplomatic post. Just let me know.

Good trading to all.

EDIT-Didn't see the few previous posts. All questions are answered. Much thanks.
  • #82
  • Feb 25, 2014 2:35pm Feb 25, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting sgpbufet
{quote} thx. pls open a new mt4 account today (demo if prefer) and start taking ur trades on it. u can link it to the explorer in few seconds today. no problem everyone can follow then make decisions on ur services. we can still look at the "setups ahead of time and c them playing out" this explorer will nto stop this. luk forward to first trade on ur new account. thx sgp.
so he should drop his platform current platform, and use mt4 even though the market profile indicators are crap, and even though the demo version doesn't trade futures. Ok.Maybe read the thread, im all for accountability but what you are asking won't even work. Audited broker statement is more than enough proof for me
  • #83
  • Feb 25, 2014 4:10pm Feb 25, 2014 4:10pm
Risk Surfer I enjoy your analysis and confidence.

Both inspire me a ton and I don't care in the least if you use a trade explorer.

In the context of your brilliant analysis and infectious confidence I think its kind of rude for someone to infer that all that matters is a bottom line...but maybe that's just me.

So cool the way you go about trading and running your business.
  • #84
  • Feb 26, 2014 3:05am Feb 26, 2014 3:05am
Quoting springger
Hey Risk, having some great calls thus far. I think I'll learn a lot from you. For yesterday's ES open drive , do you still follow the main open types (Eg Open Drive) as studied by Pete/Dalton or one of the earlier pioneers of AMT? I see we got the P shape profile. Those P days are quite nasty. As for those charts from post 73, the levels marked, ( Exact Call IMHO!) are they from the composite or the previous day's levels. It seems they occur just above 2 LVN's. SGP, (Singapore Bufet? ) On the futures side of the business, I've never...
Hey spring, The only opening type I sit up and take note of is the open drive as you already mentioned. I will very rarely trade against an open drive move (unless the level is 'A+' and well beyond the ATR of the market. I don't much care about the other opening types (open auction out of range etc etc)

Regarding yesterdays trade those LVNs on the intraday profile were just a bonus, but I would never trades something that 'weak' looking with no other confluence. Will try to get some more examples up today

RS
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #85
  • Feb 26, 2014 3:15am Feb 26, 2014 3:15am
Quoting Poocher
Risk Surfer I enjoy your analysis and confidence. Both inspire me a ton and I don't care in the least if you use a trade explorer. In the context of your brilliant analysis and infectious confidence I think its kind of rude for someone to infer that all that matters is a bottom line...but maybe that's just me. So cool the way you go about trading and running your business.
Thanks Poocher! I think confidence is an essential aspect of trading that many people overlook. I've never met a successful trader who didn't believe in his/her abilities 100% (even before they were even profitable!)

Great to have you onboard,

RS
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #86
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:46am Feb 26, 2014 6:46am
Quoting MCRotter
{quote} so he should drop his platform current platform, and use mt4 even though the market profile indicators are crap, and even though the demo version doesn't trade futures. Ok.Maybe read the thread, im all for accountability but what you are asking won't even work. Audited broker statement is more than enough proof for me
mr risksurfer can simply do the executing the trades on mt4 platform. but fine lets see his "audited broker statement" as u r suggests. we are waiting.....

sgp
  • #87
  • Feb 27, 2014 5:24am Feb 27, 2014 5:24am
Here's a snapshot of the S&P 500 overnight session. We have sold off quite a bit, dragged lower by the Dax and FTSE in the european session. However we have left behind some very weak looking highs, I would expect to see price back above this 1846.25 level, perhaps during todays RTH session

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #88
  • Edited 10:39am Feb 27, 2014 10:19am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting Risk Surfer
Here's a snapshot of the S&P 500 overnight session. We have sold off quite a bit, dragged lower by the Dax and FTSE in the european session. However we have left behind some very weak looking highs, I would expect to see price back above this 1846.25 level, perhaps during todays RTH session {image}
There's the move we were looking for. Not the cleanest trend up as we had Janet Yellen on the wires causing spasms in the market, but overall we got what we wanted. You can see the final pop up as stops were triggered above those overnight highs

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #89
  • Feb 28, 2014 5:34am Feb 28, 2014 5:34am
Good call on the above, the green line of support, what is that? Previous high volume node?

Also regarding your weak highs, why are they weak highs? Supply in this instance overcomes demand, that is all we can say when you look at an area where price drops, we can't tell what the size of the imbalances are, we just know that there is one. I know you said that in your experience these areas tend not to hold, I wonder if you have some kind of explanation for it?
  • #90
  • Feb 28, 2014 6:54am Feb 28, 2014 6:54am
Quoting MCRotter
Good call on the above, the green line of support, what is that? Previous high volume node?
1834.00 is the RTH close from the 21st February, It was untested at the time, thats why I expected support there. In fact it still remains untested during Pit session hours, so we will probably see another bounce when we trade down there again

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Quoting MCRotter
regarding your weak highs, why are they weak highs? Supply in this instance overcomes demand, that is all we can say when you look at an area where price drops, we can't tell what the size of the imbalances are, we just know that there is one. I know you said that in your experience these areas tend not to hold, I wonder if you have some kind of explanation for it?

The best answer I can give is that markets hate missing information or unfinished business. Weak highs or lows represent exactly that. In the example I gave, the market was dying to test higher but we kept getting smacked down by a large seller (perhaps just one institution or fund) who had a lot of selling to do at 1847.00. It's true they did eventually overwhelm the buyers and we sold off. But it's very rarely the market just accepts this and forgets about it. We needed to know what kind of orders lay above that 1847.00 level. More sellers? a Bunch of sell stop orders? We know now that the selling was not that strong above 1847.00 as we continued to charge higher. But it was equally possible that we spiked above to flush stops and then collapsed again. This would then be a 'strong' high, and the market then has the freedom to do whatever it wants to.

Hope I made sense there

RS
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #91
  • Feb 28, 2014 7:41am Feb 28, 2014 7:41am
Here's a little known fact.

Chicago PMI, due to be released at 2.45pm (GMT) is actually released by the ISM 3 minutes early to those that pay a subscription. Therefore the main market move will always occur at 2.42pm.

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One of the trades we used to make at the prop firm, was to actually fade/trade the opposite direction of the figure when it's released at 2.45pm as this is when the 2.42pm traders are exiting their positions and the 'slow' money is just getting in. The slow money is always stopped out and you can usually grab a few ticks out of the market
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #92
  • Feb 28, 2014 9:07am Feb 28, 2014 9:07am
Regarding my own trading it's actually been the least profitable week of the year so far. I had a sizable winner on Monday in the GBP, but took 3 losers later in the week, with no trades on Tuesday or Wednesday. So I'm ending the week with a flat P/L. Can't win them all!

Have a good weekend everyone

RS
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #93
  • Edited 7:42am Mar 3, 2014 7:29am | Edited 7:42am
Thick markets vs thin markets


Here are two screen shots of the market depth / price ladders of two different markets

1) Crude oil. This is a very 'thin' market. By thin, we mean a lack of liquidity. notice on both the bids and the offers, we only have around 25 contracts on each price. This means that you only have to buy or sell 25 contracts at market to move the price. thinner market tend to me more volatile, with regular flushes up and down, and skipping prices all together. They are generally harder to trade and less compatible with Volume Profiling. I trade CL regularly, but I pay very little attention to the profile levels, as they are far less reliable and have a low probability of holding.

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2) In contrast, we have the S&P 500 future (ES). This is one of the thickest futures markets out there. In the picture you can see several hundred contracts on each bid and offer (several thousand during RTH). The ES is consequently a slower market with more churning up and down. Thicker markets tend to be better suited to VP analysis, and ES is one of the markets I provide levels for.

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #94
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:04am Mar 3, 2014 10:04am
Hey Risk, glad to see the education continuing as regards to thick vs thin markets. I look forward to the juicy stuff of trading from the DOM!.

As for this week turning out just over BE, that still great news. My understanding is that 3 trades don't make you. Exercising your edge over hundreds of trades is where you see the "edge" playing out.

One quick question before I head out, how do you take profit? Taking profits is hard, well in my case. I scalp, so I use the avg rotation of swings. The famous 6 ticks! However, your method seems to give a lot more than that, for quite a lot less risk than mine....
  • #95
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:30am Mar 3, 2014 10:30am
Quoting springger
Hey Risk, glad to see the education continuing as regards to thick vs thin markets. I look forward to the juicy stuff of trading from the DOM!. As for this week turning out just over BE, that still great news. My understanding is that 3 trades don't make you. Exercising your edge over hundreds of trades is where you see the "edge" playing out. One quick question before I head out, how do you take profit? Taking profits is hard, well in my case. I scalp, so I use the avg rotation of swings. The famous 6 ticks! However, your method seems to give a...

No worries, I just remembered I haven't spoken about Cumulative Delta, that's next on the list

Yeah no biggie, I am more annoyed by the lack of opportunity, it really comes in phases, I haven't spun anything today either except a couple of non-profile trades in CL

So what I do for targets is keep 'fixed target' stats on all my trades on all of my markets, to give me an idea of how far a trade is 'likely' to run... e.g 1R 2R 3R....NR

I post the stats here: http://risksurfer.com/historical-results. Once I know what ballpark target I should be aiming for, I look for logical levels in that general area (VWAPs Midpoints, HVNs LVNs etc) and click out just ahead of them to ensure a fill. Does that make sense?

Best,
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #96
  • Mar 3, 2014 12:15pm Mar 3, 2014 12:15pm
Quoting Risk Surfer
{quote} 1834.00 is the RTH close from the 21st February, It was untested at the time, thats why I expected support there. In fact it still remains untested during Pit session hours, so we will probably see another bounce when we trade down there again
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Ok so the 1834.00 Level did hold, but in all honesty I lost money on this trade, Here's why:

I use ridiculously tight stops. I really expect my levels to hold to the tick, and in many cases they do. On the S&P 500 my stop is just 5 ticks, If the market pushes through my level more than 5 ticks, I consider it a failed trade. In this example price squeezed though by 6 ticks before bouncing.

The reason I use such tight stops is to achieve large R multiples on my winning trades. While my Win rate is just over 50%, the amount I make on winning trades is FAR more than I lose on losses like today. For me this is the only way to trade.

I know people who analyze the market exactly the same way I do, but they trade with larger stops, this means they win a lot more often that I do, but at the end of the month my results are almost always better, due to the low risk, high reward nature of my trading style.

Having said that, it's mighty frustrating to be stopped out at the low, to then see the market rally in your favour! This used to annoy me immensely, but over time I have gotten used to it, as I know that's just the way it has to be

RS

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #97
  • Mar 4, 2014 8:23am Mar 4, 2014 8:23am
We left weak highs behind in the S&P on Friday. The Ukrainian geopolitical events have pushed us lower, but now I'm expecting these highs to be taken out, probably today, or at least by the end of the week

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #98
  • Mar 4, 2014 8:56am Mar 4, 2014 8:56am
Quoting Risk Surfer
We left weak highs behind in the S&P on Friday. The Ukrainian geopolitical events have pushed us lower, but now I'm expecting these highs to be taken out, probably today, or at least by the end of the week {image}
High taken out, Trading 1867.25 now
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #99
  • Mar 4, 2014 9:28am Mar 4, 2014 9:28am
Hey Risk, thanks for the update. I for one do play with a wider risk. Just like you mentioned, the narrow stops frustrated me to the point where I just decided to widen the stops and started adding to positions as the trade went in my direction. Something I have to commend you for, and another of my demons to fight, the aspect of chasing trades. The twenty something tick profit where price came to within

Lastly, how do you interpret the effect of external fundamental events with respect to the charts, re: The Ukrainian geopolitical events with respect to the overall perception of the markets. Pardon the stupid questions, but I'm still studying the basics of VP/AMT. As a matter of fact, I haven't fired up Investor RT for the past month, as I am awaiting delivery of a trading rig.

In looking at the difference between the cost associated with MD and I/RT, would you be an advocate of switching to the MD, or do you believe that with a comprehensive understanding of the DOM, the same info that is displayed on the footprint can be utilized. I should mention that I use Delta as a confirmation trigger for my trades.

Much thanks and happy trading.....
  • #100
  • Mar 4, 2014 10:50am Mar 4, 2014 10:50am
Quoting springger
Hey Risk, thanks for the update. I for one do play with a wider risk. Just like you mentioned, the narrow stops frustrated me to the point where I just decided to widen the stops and started adding to positions as the trade went in my direction. Something I have to commend you for, and another of my demons to fight, the aspect of chasing trades. The twenty something tick profit where price came to within Lastly, how do you interpret the effect of external fundamental events with respect to the charts, re: The Ukrainian geopolitical events with respect...
Wider risk is absolutely fine if that's working for you, every trader is different! One thing I would say though is that it's rarely the most comfortable strategy that makes the most money. It's important to step away from the crowd and take trades when everyone else is too scared to no matter how uncomfortable it feels. It's these people who become the most successful in this game. Often when a market appears very bullish it's the best time to sell. It's the same when it comes to stop placement and so on. I'm not saying you should adjust your style to mine, I'm just saying that it's incredibly frustrating to me too when I have numerous stop outs in a row, but my stats and my experience tells me I am doing the right thing, so I simple endure it

I look to fundamentals to give me a tip off as to what the mood of the market is. I have found over the years that fundamental news never turns markets on it's own. If an important piece of news hits the wires, there will always be an initial, fast money move in the direction you'd expect.
However if this direction is against the overall 'mood' of the market (bullish mood in the S&P right now), then it will not take long before the news is shrugged off, and the market turns back in the direction it wants to go. In fact, the stops of all the news traders will likely fuel the market even more so in the direction it 'wants' to go.
So for example, if a negative piece of news hits the wires right now, and the S&P trades down to 1860.50 (a level of support I have), but then quickly turns around and trades back up through 1865.00, I know that the news has already been discounted by the market, and the overall bull trend is still intact, and I have even more confidence in longs.

I was using IRT initially like you, but I became quite interested in the footprint charts so I made the switch to Market Delta, however after a lot of research I concluded that the footprint charts weren't helping me at all, and they weren't telling me anything I couldn't already see, so I don't even have them up any more. I should probably switch back to IRT as it's quite a big saving each month.

Looking forward to seeing pictures of your new trading rig!
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
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