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  • #61
  • Feb 19, 2014 7:43pm Feb 19, 2014 7:43pm
As I see it, during the RTH, the market opened higher and lower, but always rotated back into the accepted prices. The tight range of VPOC means that more likely than not, the composite will show the VPOC of around there as well. A brief check of FF calender (I'm away from my trading setup!) shows the G20 meeting starts this weekend. Is it safe to assume that this is the stimulus that might cause the change in perceived value?

Time to start developing some hypothesis!!

That aside, I've noticed that the majority of the charts show the exchange open hours, but barely any consideration is paid to the overnight session. Care to comment? Additionally, do you pay any attention to the developing VA as well as the developing VPOC's?

Thanks for the heads up on the Aussie Futures. I feel much safer playing within a ranging market, (like this!) as I've had horrible experiences with trending days. Thankfully the markets move sideways more than they trend. Ideas for developing such a strategy within the trading plan are in the works!

Lastly, thanks for the volume profile thread. Like someone said, its one of the more comprehensive sources of info out there. I personally paid quite a sum to learn volume profiling, as well as invested countless hours and sleepless nights, and lo and behold, a mere few months after, this thread appears.
  • #62
  • Feb 20, 2014 9:22am Feb 20, 2014 9:22am
Quoting springger
As I see it, during the RTH, the market opened higher and lower, but always rotated back into the accepted prices. The tight range of VPOC means that more likely than not, the composite will show the VPOC of around there as well. A brief check of FF calender (I'm away from my trading setup!) shows the G20 meeting starts this weekend. Is it safe to assume that this is the stimulus that might cause the change in perceived value? Time to start developing some hypothesis!!
Sounds like you have a great grasp of the material already. Here's the Euro (6E) chart for the last 3 sessions including today:

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Yeah something might come out of the G20 but I wouldn't count on it. Looks like the weak Chinese PMI data gave us quite a bit of dollar strength (the dollar is a risk off currency) which sent Euro lower. Below us we have 2 nice High volume nodes seen here on the rolling 120 min chart. 1.3675 and 1.3591. Those would be nice targets for shorts, However those highs look quite weak to me, I don't think they will hold as a swing point for a long period of time, especially since we're only lower today because of that Chinese PMI. If I were trading this product I'd be looking to lean on those HVNs for longs to take us back up to the highs.

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Quoting springger
That aside, I've noticed that the majority of the charts show the exchange open hours, but barely any consideration is paid to the overnight session. Care to comment?
Pit session hours are my main focus for ES, although for the FX markets there is no real RTH so I just look at the 24 hour session really. Bunds and Gilts are only open for 14 and 10 hours respectively so I look at the full session for them too.

Quoting springger
Additionally, do you pay any attention to the developing VA as well as the developing VPOC's?
Developing VPOCs yes definitely, VPOC shifts are quite significant too, Developing Value area not so much, although I do take note of how value is shifting in real time, higher or lower.

Quoting springger
Thanks for the heads up on the Aussie Futures. I feel much safer playing within a ranging market, (like this!) as I've had horrible experiences with trending days. Thankfully the markets move sideways more than they trend. Ideas for developing such a strategy within the trading plan are in the works!
That's great if you can identify what type of markets you do well in. Most people try to trade all conditions equally aggressively without ever really determining what their strengths and weaknesses are

Quoting springger
Lastly, thanks for the volume profile thread. Like someone said, its one of the more comprehensive sources of info out there. I personally paid quite a sum to learn volume profiling, as well as invested countless hours and sleepless nights, and lo and behold, a mere few months after, this thread appears.
No worries. I don't think you wasted your money for what it's worth. I think it's always good to get at least 2 opinions when learning something new, especially with something as subjective as trading, It's never black and white. That's for the feedback though, and for participating in the thread, stop by anytime with more questions, views etc!
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #63
  • Feb 20, 2014 12:21pm Feb 20, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting Risk Surfer
Check out the 6A (Australian Dollar Future) For 4 sessions now we've had matching VPOCs to within 5 prices (0.9014 to 0.9019) The market is finding a lot of acceptance here and this is telling me the area will be very important. I expect us to move away from here quite sharply when it happens, as either buyers or sellers realize they're wrong and run for the exit. When price eventually revisits this area, I think it's very likely we will see a reaction. I'll keep you posted {image}

Well we got out catalyst in the Aussie already! Weak data out of Asia meant money flowed out of the Aud and into the the Dollar causing large drop in the Aud future.

Remember from the previous chart we had been balancing in the same area for 3 days, meaning that there were MANY buyers from these prices that needed to bail on their positions, that's why the drop was so aggressive on relatively unimportant data.

The question now is what will happen when price drifts back up into the 0.9017 area. Will we see a rejection? (I think a small one initially) Or will price get caught up here as it did before? One things for sure, it's very unlikely price will slice through this are with no resistance at all.


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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #64
  • Feb 21, 2014 6:56pm Feb 21, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting Risk Surfer
{quote} Sounds like you have a great grasp of the material already. Here's the Euro (6E) chart for the last 3 sessions including today: {image} Yeah something might come out of the G20 but I wouldn't count on it. Looks like the weak Chinese PMI data gave us quite a bit of dollar strength (the dollar is a risk off currency) which sent Euro lower. Below us we have 2 nice High volume nodes seen here on the rolling 120 min chart. 1.3675 and 1.3591. Those would be nice targets for shorts, However those highs look quite weak to me, I don't think they...
Some of your HVNs in your 120 chart align perfectly with my technical entries... very interesting stuff.

Well done on the info so far. I hope you are managing to get some followers.

My confidence that you are one of the few traders that are who they say they are, and do actually make money is growing... no mean feat sir as I am a born sceptic.
  • #65
  • Feb 22, 2014 4:45am Feb 22, 2014 4:45am
Quoting MCRotter
{quote} Some of your HVNs in your 120 chart align perfectly with my technical entries... very interesting stuff. Well done on the info so far. I hope you are managing to get some followers. My confidence that you are one of the few traders that are who they say they are, and do actually make money is growing... no mean feat sir as I am a born sceptic.

Thanks for your vote of confidence MC, it's absolutely right to be skeptical, I think you have to be in this job. I just had a look at some of the other threads in the Commercial section and it's absolute carnage out there.

We're getting a nice group together on the website, It's turning out better than I expected as many subscribers are getting stuck in and making an effort to learn the material too instead of just using me as a signal provider.
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #66
  • Feb 22, 2014 7:44am Feb 22, 2014 7:44am
Quoting Risk Surfer
{quote} Thanks for your vote of confidence MC, it's absolutely right to be skeptical, I think you have to be in this job. I just had a look at some of the other threads in the Commercial section and it's absolute carnage out there. We're getting a nice group together on the website, It's turning out better than I expected as many subscribers are getting stuck in and making an effort to learn the material too instead of just using me as a signal provider.
That's wonderful, well done and keep posting here.... pretty please lol

Only a matter of time before I start trading futures, there is a lot more info at your disposal from trading a centralised market and I like that.
  • #67
  • Feb 22, 2014 11:48am Feb 22, 2014 11:48am
Hey Risk, sorry for the late reply. Its interesting to see the Wed's VA being tested before the sharp drop. As Rotter says, a few of your levels have held so far. Kudos on that. How I trade of AMT/VP, I identify levels and wait for price to reach those levels, then I wait to see whats happening before i step in. Thus you have my attention. The real magic I think is trading of the DOM. That's why I started leaning towards the footprint charts, as I am clueless about the DOM!!

As for subscribers actually taking the effort to actually learn VP, believe me when I say they won't be turning back. When they actually understand how the market works in terms of human behavior and psychology, and see trades unfolding before their eyes, they will believe. I know it did for me. The first 3 pages of this thread are priceless.

Rotter, I understand your skepticism. Believe me, in this environment, vultures are even more aggressive in that they prey on the weak and uninformed. Even more-so, when they can remain hidden behind the anonymity of forums, where the "Ban" and "Ignore" buttons are favorite tools. Stepping into the futures realm, again, its a nice upgrade.

Risk, keep up the good work.
Rotter, glad to see you tuned in.
  • #68
  • Feb 23, 2014 12:30pm Feb 23, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting MCRotter
{quote} That's wonderful, well done and keep posting here.... pretty please lol Only a matter of time before I start trading futures, there is a lot more info at your disposal from trading a centralised market and I like that.
Gotta love Futures, Most new people entering the trading world start with spot FX since it's made so accessible, but it's really like the wild west in comparison to 'proper' exchange traded products in my opinion
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #69
  • Feb 23, 2014 12:34pm Feb 23, 2014 12:34pm
Quoting springger
Hey Risk, sorry for the late reply. Its interesting to see the Wed's VA being tested before the sharp drop. As Rotter says, a few of your levels have held so far. Kudos on that. How I trade of AMT/VP, I identify levels and wait for price to reach those levels, then I wait to see whats happening before i step in. Thus you have my attention. The real magic I think is trading of the DOM. That's why I started leaning towards the footprint charts, as I am clueless about the DOM!! As for subscribers actually taking the effort to actually learn VP, believe...
I intend to do some posts regarding the DOM if people are interested, I'm trying to figure out the best way to do it, I think I will have to record a video since screenshots aren't going to communicate the mechanics of it particularly well.

I trade much like you, I don't really care about the overall direction of the market. I do pay attention to obvious trends like we have in the ES right now, and try not to fade them too aggressively, but for the most part I'm identifying levels in the market where I expect a reaction and know I can get away with a very tight stop. i.e. I know very quickly if I am wrong and can cut the loss before it becomes significant.

Good to have you onboard
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #70
  • Feb 24, 2014 6:04am Feb 24, 2014 6:04am
Here's another tool Profilers use.

When we have an extended period (several days) of balanced, choppy, rangebound trading, we bracket the chop zone and draw a profile around it.
In other words, we treat the chop zone as one big session, even though it may extend for several days or even weeks.

This new profile gives us a new set of HVNs, LVNs, Value area, VPOC etc within it

Here's an example; The German Bund market has been very rangebound since January 31 2014. Price has been chopping up and down each day, making no progress in either direction. This is very much a balanced market, so we draw a profile over the relevant daily bars, to obtain metrics such as the VPOC (most traded price since the range began) to help us with trade ideas going forward. These metrics will be especially relevant once the market moves away from balance, (breaks out higher or lower) and then revisits/retests the prices in question

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Interestingly, check out the intraday session from Friday (Feb 21). Look where the VPOC is, 143.77, Just 5 ticks away from the VPOC of our zone beginning Jan 31st, No coincidence there!

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #71
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:14am Feb 24, 2014 10:14am
It's a big day for the S&P500, so far in the session we have made fresh all time highs, breaking above Decembers previous top. Half way through the session we have this weak high forming, and VPOC shifted to a price 1 tick off the high, this is very unlikely to hold for the rest of the session and we should pop above here in my opinion

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #72
  • Edited 1:11pm Feb 24, 2014 10:57am | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting Risk Surfer
It's a big day for the S&P500, so far in the session we have made fresh all time highs, breaking above Decembers previous top. Half way through the session we have this weak high forming, and VPOC shifted to a price 1 tick off the high, this is very unlikely to hold for the rest of the session and we should pop above here in my opinion {image}
It's already happened. That VPOC at 1851.25 was created by sellers who shorted aggressively at that price, but all their selling was absorbed by the buyers, and it was inevitable that they'd eventually be overcome and be forced to cover their positions, fueling the market higher:

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #73
  • Feb 25, 2014 4:50am Feb 25, 2014 4:50am
It should be another interesting day in the S&P today, I'm still looking for higher prices and will be entering longs much more aggressively than shorts. The main levels I'm looking at for support are the 1836.75 and 1834.25 levels. Let's see how things play out once the RTH session is underway

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #74
  • Feb 25, 2014 7:00am Feb 25, 2014 7:00am
Here's another example of the the market being attracted back, and getting stuck at previous balance area, this time in 6C, the Canadian Dollar future

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #75
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:28am Feb 25, 2014 9:28am
Quoting Risk Surfer
It should be another interesting day in the S&P today, I'm still looking for higher prices and will be entering longs much more aggressively than shorts. The main levels I'm looking at for support are the 1836.75 and 1834.25 levels. Let's see how things play out once the RTH session is underway {image}
Now the Pit session is open we have some nice volatility and volume going though, We got a nice reaction off the first green level so far, unfortunately I'm not onboard this move as it just missed my entry by one tick!

Let's see what happens if we trade down to 1834.25

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #76
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:07am Feb 25, 2014 10:07am
Quoting Risk Surfer
{quote} Now the Pit session is open we have some nice volatility and volume going though, We got a nice reaction off the first green level so far, unfortunately I'm not onboard this move as it just missed my entry by one tick! Let's see what happens if we trade down to 1834.25 {image}
mr risk surfer can u upload ur trade explorer or myfxbook we can see all this picture r not just the thing u making up.

thx, sgp
  • #77
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:28am Feb 25, 2014 11:28am
Quoting sgpbufet
{quote} mr risk surfer can u upload ur trade explorer or myfxbook we can see all this picture r not just the thing u making up. thx, sgp
SGP
Please check this link that was posted prior to the market opening. I am new here still trying to understand these concepts and quite difficult especially if we miss the links between them. Good luck with your trading.

--
SP
  • #78
  • Feb 25, 2014 1:14pm Feb 25, 2014 1:14pm
Quoting sgpbufet
{quote} mr risk surfer can u upload ur trade explorer or myfxbook we can see all this picture r not just the thing u making up. thx, sgp
Hey SGP, thanks for participating

I looked into a trade explorer initially but I decided it was far more beneficial to discuss potential trade setups ahead of time with followers, and then watch them play out together, win or lose. I prefer to do it this way rather than just connect a trade explorer to my platform just to prove "what an awesome trader I am". What use is that to anyone?
Besides, I trade futures, all the mainstream trade explorers seem to be aimed at spotFX (I think we all know why that is!).

If enough people really want my recorded trades then I will consider it, or maybe I'll just post my clearing firm statements or something. I do realize that since I am selling something I have to be accountable. But for now please follow along the thread, read the posts, follow the trades and make up your mind about me that way.

Good trading
Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #79
  • Feb 25, 2014 1:28pm Feb 25, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting Risk Surfer
{quote} Now the Pit session is open we have some nice volatility and volume going though, We got a nice reaction off the first green level so far, unfortunately I'm not onboard this move as it just missed my entry by one tick! Let's see what happens if we trade down to 1834.25 {image}

Here's the reason for the 1836.75 Long:

A lot of trading has occurred in this area, in recent times, and last time we were up here back in December 2013/January 2014. The most traded price from all this chop was 1836.50.

We opened the Pit session just above here and since I am being very aggressive with longs in this market currently, it was the first level to expect a bounce upwards from back towards the highs

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Trade ideas posted daily with a follow up each night. See post #1
  • #80
  • Feb 25, 2014 1:29pm Feb 25, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting Risk Surfer
{quote} Hey SGP, thanks for participating I looked into a trade explorer initially but I decided it was far more beneficial to discuss potential trade setups ahead of time with followers, and then watch them play out together, win or lose. I prefer to do it this way rather than just connect a trade explorer to my platform just to prove "what an awesome trader I am". What use is that to anyone? Besides, I trade futures, all the mainstream trade explorers seem to be aimed at spotFX (I think we all know why that is!). If enough people really want my...
thx. pls open a new mt4 account today (demo if prefer) and start taking ur trades on it. u can link it to the explorer in few seconds today.

no problem everyone can follow then make decisions on ur services. we can still look at the "setups ahead of time and c them playing out" this explorer will nto stop this.

luk forward to first trade on ur new account. thx sgp.
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