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  • #3,601
  • Feb 28, 2014 2:26am Feb 28, 2014 2:26am
Olu are you still short on gbpusd?

it never came down?
  • #3,602
  • Mar 1, 2014 9:35am Mar 1, 2014 9:35am
Quoting trexy123
Olu are you still short on gbpusd? it never came down?
Not short Trexy123. Tried it twice and both times was stopped out for a loss

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,603
  • Mar 1, 2014 9:41am Mar 1, 2014 9:41am
UsdJpy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,604
  • Mar 1, 2014 10:13am Mar 1, 2014 10:13am
Hi Srt

I trade with Saxobank and they have just announced that commodity spread trading is now available on their electronic platform. I am happy with this new development as one can take advantage of statistically seasonal price movements at reduced margin. Do you trade commodity spreads?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,605
  • Mar 1, 2014 11:13am Mar 1, 2014 11:13am
Quoting Olu
Hi Srt I trade with Saxobank and they have just announced that commodity spread trading is now available on their electronic platform. I am happy with this new development as one can take advantage of statistically seasonal price movements at reduced margin. Do you trade commodity spreads? Olu
Hi Olu,

I trade spreads but only vertical spreads, no calendar spreads. A broker that trades for me does really well with calendar spreads but I just never got a good feel for trading that way. You're trying to figure out if the front month contract is more/less bullish/bearish than the back month contracts and how much is already priced in. I prefer to just be bearish or bullish then look at a way to trade it using a vertical spread, credit spread or straight credit trade. Calendar spreads just not my cup of tea from my past experience trying it.

My largest option positions right now are in corn & silver but these are a bit longer-term plays. Using options will reduce your margin requirements & also your risk to help sleep better :-)
  • #3,606
  • Edited 7:22pm Mar 2, 2014 5:16pm | Edited 7:22pm
Corn:

Longer-term view from MONTHLY chart.
High impact report Mar. 10

***In the short term, prices may get a boost as Ukraine is the 4th largest exporter of corn so if shipments are slowed it could create more buying from the US.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US Corn(Monthly)-1.png Size: 30 KB
  • #3,607
  • Mar 2, 2014 6:57pm Mar 2, 2014 6:57pm
Quoting srt
Oil: Possible time to go short? {image}
Oil:

I didn't short this yet. I'd wait on shorting until the Ukraine tension settles then might create a better chance at even higher prices.

Feb. 25th Chart

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1393336932

Mar. 2 Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude Oil(Daily)20140302195557.png Size: 37 KB
  • #3,608
  • Mar 3, 2014 6:15am Mar 3, 2014 6:15am
Wheat:

I've been watching this for possible long entries but may not get the prices I was looking for.

MONTHLY Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US Wheat(Monthly)20140303071303.png Size: 32 KB
  • #3,609
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:25am Mar 3, 2014 7:25am
Quoting srt
{quote} Oil: I didn't short this yet. I'd wait on shorting until the Ukraine tension settles then might create a better chance at even higher prices. Feb. 25th Chart {image} Mar. 2 Chart {image}
Agreed Srt

this eukraine matter has affected things. Too hot to sell now...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,610
  • Mar 3, 2014 7:31am Mar 3, 2014 7:31am
Quoting srt
Wheat: I've been watching this for possible long entries but may not get the prices I was looking for. MONTHLY Chart {image}
I think you will Srt. I am immediately bearish.
BTW I a looking to buy sugar. Couldn't post a chart over the weekend but it looks there might be more tradeable upside
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,611
  • Mar 3, 2014 8:42am Mar 3, 2014 8:42am
NZDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd-daily-03032014-1430uk.JPG Size: 47 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,612
  • Mar 3, 2014 9:10am Mar 3, 2014 9:10am
I agree it will drop - but where is your target?
and you have a large stop if you put it over the Nose of the Pin?
  • #3,613
  • Mar 3, 2014 10:02am Mar 3, 2014 10:02am
Quoting Olu
NZDUSD {image}
Might get a pullback but the weekly & monthly charts look a bit bullish IMHO.
Charts later.
  • #3,614
  • Mar 4, 2014 8:22am Mar 4, 2014 8:22am
Quoting TEB63
I agree it will drop - but where is your target? and you have a large stop if you put it over the Nose of the Pin?

Agreed TEB63. There is high risk in this trade. Normally I would put the stop above the high of the inverse pin like you said. Also I would shoot for the various support levels like 8350 downwards looking to see whether I could hold on for long term
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,615
  • Mar 4, 2014 8:28am Mar 4, 2014 8:28am
Quoting srt
{quote} Might get a pullback but the weekly & monthly charts look a bit bullish IMHO. Charts later.

You might be right here this pair is resisting going down...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,616
  • Mar 5, 2014 9:10am Mar 5, 2014 9:10am
NZDUSD No weakness is showing here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,617
  • Mar 5, 2014 10:29am Mar 5, 2014 10:29am
By the way guys you havent heard from me because my internet is down. I am nicking some time from work to post this. And one of my pet hates on posts is to say 'I think the $ is going to do this or that' whthout showing why on a chart

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,618
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:13pm Mar 5, 2014 6:13pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Oil: I didn't short this yet. I'd wait on shorting until the Ukraine tension settles then might create a better chance at even higher prices. Feb. 25th Chart {image} Mar. 2 Chart {image}
Oil Update:

Starting to look like a short.
I'm going to pass though as the wrong rumor out of Ukraine would probably send a quick spike just enough to get stopped out before it falls quickly again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,619
  • Mar 5, 2014 6:27pm Mar 5, 2014 6:27pm
Quoting Olu
NZDUSD No weakness is showing here {image}
Same problem with gbpusd as well?
  • #3,620
  • Mar 5, 2014 7:21pm Mar 5, 2014 7:21pm
Beef anyone?
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