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NZD/USD

  • #3,121
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:16pm Feb 26, 2014 9:16pm
All depends on time frames gentlemen, I've seen at least one intra-day long opportunity today. I don't trade intra day though. That being said, we'll need a much better daily close for the bears to have a chance....right now isn't looking to healthy for bears. By the way, Daily is showing an obvious double top.
  • #3,122
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:18pm Feb 26, 2014 9:18pm
a close below 8306 would do nicely for bears.
  • #3,123
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:25pm Feb 26, 2014 9:25pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Looks like you've got an opponent, Pala. Bull against Bear, Here we go!!!
Lol By trading NZD so well you mean paying into it via swaps then yeah, I take 1st prize.

Intraday long can workout.. Its headed into the squeeze so either will break through up or down.. At this point its in the air. I think if EU/US will push down it will give more downward direction to NZ as it seems to effect it on the downside push correlation. It does play into the trend lines.. So something will give soon.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,124
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:28pm Feb 26, 2014 9:28pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} That guy is an azz!! But the woman is dumb though. Is this a real story? Why couldn't she just put up the poster with the picture of her cat herself? Hasn't she heard of the saying "if you want something done right, you have to do it yourself"? I just saw that question on one of the "Who Wants to be a Millionaire? Fails" video.
I don't know, but its pretty funny.. He makes a Poster of Lost lol classic.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,125
  • Feb 26, 2014 10:24pm Feb 26, 2014 10:24pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} Lol By trading NZD so well you mean paying into it via swaps then yeah, I take 1st prize. Intraday long can workout.. Its headed into the squeeze so either will break through up or down.. At this point its in the air. I think if EU/US will push down it will give more downward direction to NZ as it seems to effect it on the downside push correlation. It does play into the trend lines.. So something will give soon.
Well Yellen is going to yap at 10:00 am and at 7:00 PM, there is the ANZ Business Confidence number for NZ. Both of those events should push the price one way or another.

Well since you trade with an Australian broker, you can hedge. So you can make some pips going Intraday Long to compensate for the swaps that you are paying for your marathon Short. But still, 4 days of swaps of ($8 a day), that's just $32, small price to pay for your big heaps of 100+ pips!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,126
  • Feb 26, 2014 10:25pm Feb 26, 2014 10:25pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} I don't know, but its pretty funny.. He makes a Poster of Lost lol classic.
I know that Lost poster was the best. LOL
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,127
  • Feb 26, 2014 10:29pm Feb 26, 2014 10:29pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Well Yellen is going to yap at 10:00 am and at 7:00 PM, there is the ANZ Business Confidence number for NZ. Both of those events should push the price one way or another. Well since you trade with an Australian broker, you can hedge. So you can make some pips going Intraday Long to compensate for the swaps that you are paying for your marathon Short. But still, 4 days of swaps of ($8 a day), that's just $32, small price to pay for your big heaps of 100+ pips!!
I don't do direct hedges anymore.. It's easy to get caught up, and you end up being neither up nor down.. In theory a direct hedge is awesome, play both sides in reality.. Need to be good at it, like really good and have some sort of play. I rather play one direction at the time.. Take my big heaps as you put, and be happy lol, its less of a confusing headache.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,128
  • Feb 26, 2014 10:40pm Feb 26, 2014 10:40pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} I don't do direct hedges anymore.. It's easy to get caught up, and you end up being neither up nor down.. In theory a direct hedge is awesome, play both sides in reality.. Need to be good at it, like really good and have some sort of play. I rather play one direction at the time.. Take my big heaps as you put, and be happy lol, its less of a confusing headache.
Well you can pretend that you never shorted in the first place. Pretend you are dealing with fresh chart with no positions taken. But then I guess you like to set long-term tp's. If you are not convinced of the Long direction, in this case, you would have to set a relatively shorter term target, sorta like hit-and-run kinda target but that's not your style. You like the pain...LOL in order to get the gains, the HUGE gains at the end! LOL
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,129
  • Feb 26, 2014 10:51pm Feb 26, 2014 10:51pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Well you can pretend that you never shorted in the first place. Pretend you are dealing with fresh chart with no positions taken. But then I guess you like to set long-term tp's. If you are not convinced of the Long direction, in this case, you would have to set a relatively shorter term target, sorta like hit-and-run kinda target but that's not your style. You like the pain...LOL in order to get the gains, the HUGE gains at the end! LOL
rofl.. Well lets put it like this when you enter into a position you have a bias.. Say short.. So you think its going to go down.. Then you want to hedge and you take a long position.. So now you have a long bias.. Market will eventually pick one side.. but lets say.. Short.. so it goes down and your like yay.. so you got an option.. close your long.. so you close your long and go with the short OH wait it decides to turn around and go back again.. Now you took a loss on your long and your short is entering into a loss.

Now in your head your thinking Pow pow.. Hit the Long hit the short walk away do a dance.. sing a song do a twirl.. In reality.. you need to cut one.. and keep another.. So many ways this goes wrong..

I tried it more then once.. When I first discovered it.. I was like OMG I can do Kung Pow! Take Long and short and make money on both its genius lol.. BURNED! I'm not saying it can't be done.. but you need to know what your doing, and be ready to embrace the consequences.

My methods might seem crazy lol.. This guy is taking more then 6 pips! OMG his CRAZY! I have statistics over 2 years of data I collected on every trade.. I know based on probability the range within entry that I can take profit and put a SL.

Like for example.. in AUD I have 0 Losses! I have Break-evens but 0 losses! 33 trades.. So what does it mean 0 losses.. Yes I did have actual losses, but the TP was able to break them even so on a monthly basis it calculates to 0 losses. More specifically I had 25 wins and 6 losses.. But, because they were in a month with a win.. it broke even.

My game plan is a larger picture.. Each curruncy offsets another curruncy limiting my losses. So I might lose on NZD but I'll win on GBP and then Subtract that Gain minus that Loss and I'm either net positive or small net negative..

Its just a mechanism of different trades and a big picture of gains and losses all intermixed and calculated on a monthly basis.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,130
  • Feb 26, 2014 10:56pm Feb 26, 2014 10:56pm
This is my record book if you will.. I called it bare-bone pod.. All the information here is just net gains and losses.
I have a detailed individual and combined once of each trade time date entry -- exit -- like detailed.

Notice how the euro sucked for me for the last few months!
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There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,131
  • Feb 26, 2014 11:15pm Feb 26, 2014 11:15pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} rofl.. Well lets put it like this when you enter into a position you have a bias.. Say short.. So you think its going to go down.. Then you want to hedge and you take a long position.. So now you have a long bias.. Market will eventually pick one side.. but lets say.. Short.. so it goes down and your like yay.. so you got an option.. close your long.. so you close your long and go with the short OH wait it decides to turn around and go back again.. Now you took a loss on your long and your short is entering into a loss. Now in your head...
LOL That's WHY it's hit and run!!! You hit and then RUN!!! You don't stay there long enough for the market to make up its mind. You RUN before the market decides to take one side over the other. Say you are short right now. You don't have to close that short. You leave it open, but during all those times that the price was creeping up on you, you take a shot at them, take a long position and then close it, let's say at the 40-level that was the consensus resistence zone. You know eventually this NZ is going down, that's your Short bias, you keep it in your heart and never let it die. But in the meantime, go with the flow and dally with the opposite side, dance with the enemy a little bit and have some fun. But you know what, I can see why you would rather want to stick with one direction instead of hedging all over the place. One, you take opposite direction with other same-direction moving currencies so in a way that is hedging and you are actually hedging more effectively with a faster-moving currency. But also two, I find the market is also changed, the intraday volatility is just not what it used to be. Each of the small run is only going to run you at most 20 pips, why waste commissions on chasing after such small profit when you can go for the home run for the BIG ONE!!! Before the Financial Crisis, when the market had lot more volatility either way, it's actually worth it to stay short-term and just stack up the pips but now, swing is for the win!!

Cheering for you still for your journey to the Great Pipsland! Hope you make it there tomorrow!!! All you need now is a bad ANZ number!! You were already 60 pips there.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,132
  • Feb 26, 2014 11:18pm Feb 26, 2014 11:18pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} LOL That's WHY it's hit and run!!! You hit and then RUN!!! You don't stay there long enough for the market to make up its mind. You RUN before the market decides to take one side over the other. Say you are short right now. You don't have to close that short. You leave it open, but during all those times that the price was creeping up on you, you take a shot at them, take a long position and then close it, let's say at the 40-level that was the consensus resistence zone. You know eventually this NZ is going down, that's your Short bias,...
When I took this trade initially.. It went down to .8243 was 16 pips away from TP Then after that it decided I'm in love with .8340.. I think i'll sit at its door step till it will let me in.. Nananana 53 weeks later! Nanananana!

I hope that by 7 PM tomorrow this will be resolved lol! Cause this is ridiculous now.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #3,133
  • Edited 11:45pm Feb 26, 2014 11:29pm | Edited 11:45pm
Quoting palabara
{quote} When I took this trade initially.. It went down to .8243 was 16 pips away from TP Then after that it decided I'm in love with .8340.. I think i'll sit at its door step till it will let me in.. Nananana 53 weeks later! Nanananana! I hope that by 7 PM tomorrow this will be resolved lol! Cause this is ridiculous now.
Yup by 7:00 PM tomorrow, if your tp target is still not hit, I would start thinking about an exit strategy. No point spending more swaps over the weekend especially if the ANZ number is not too bad, Forex God forbid...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #3,134
  • Feb 27, 2014 6:10am Feb 27, 2014 6:10am
Didn't get our close, today is gonna be murder for shorts. Pretty tough resistance up ahead + USD news today, may set me up to cover my losses, but this trade is botched as far as I'm concerned.
  • #3,135
  • Feb 27, 2014 7:26am Feb 27, 2014 7:26am
Kiwi is giving me the shits today!!
  • #3,136
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:17am Feb 27, 2014 8:17am
There were a few good news items for the Kiwi yesterday and soft US news this morning. My opinion is that it is overvalued but that doesn't matter, I think they are gunning for 0.8390
  • #3,137
  • Feb 27, 2014 8:35am Feb 27, 2014 8:35am
Quoting Sherpa
There were a few good news items for the Kiwi yesterday and soft US news this morning. My opinion is that it is overvalued but that doesn't matter, I think they are gunning for 0.8390
I think you might be right Sherpa. I started building a position from the old resistance level. I'm with you with the overvalued!!! but the markets for some reason don't give a shit what I think today.

Also started building a position into the AUS/NZ from 6800 down to 6200.
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  • #3,138
  • Feb 27, 2014 10:08am Feb 27, 2014 10:08am
limit short 84
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,139
  • Feb 27, 2014 10:13am Feb 27, 2014 10:13am
They're used as free to kiwi
  • #3,140
  • Feb 27, 2014 10:26am Feb 27, 2014 10:26am
Thanks for the support Forexia

It broke up! hehehehe

So bulls will cycle through get it out of their system and we can resume with our lives.

I'm still bias short.. This bulls have been knocking on the door -- So once they leave -- everything will continue.
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There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
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