Learn and Share your Trades using Charts and S/D Levels

hello gila and all, if thats ok i would like to post a failed aud\jpy trade, to hear ur opinion on my analysis

ltf-M30 (down),
itf-M5-up

i look for a good supply zone to sell
the zone is DBD 91.97-92.14

odds enhancers:
50% of the curve- -1 point
level is fresh
RRR-3:1
volume-higher than average
time at the level-less than 6 candles
level on top of level- yes, marked on the chart (i hope its correct, not 100% sure about that)
futures-favorable correlation

odds enhancers=15



this is my pre trade analysis-the result was a failed trade which obv happens, whats more important is if my analysis was right?
tyvm for ur comment

Hey ag,

By nooooooooooo means am I gila however currently in my rules I'm testing, if price bases before level I negate as the basing represents orders being consumed and if it breaks north into my level it tells me the bulls and possibly institutions want that level broken, a messy RbR if you will. This coupled with time spent at base would have me negate it, plus 50% in curve shows no probability and more chances of buyers and sellers fighting it out.

This is in hindsight, I maybe wrong.


Cheers,

c

hi chica and ty for ur comnment. not sure i really got what u tried to say.
i marked my entry-it was before the basing if that what u meant, or if u meant something else, plz explain.

thx again for ur comment

Hey ag,

What I am saying is hindsight so take it with a grain of salt, but for analysis purposes i note you had a flag, base, or consolidation followed by a Erc candle (green) the next candle pin bar looks like a rejection but was just consumption clearing the way, this was your retest. The breakout from the base was not compressed nor exhausted so in my eyes it looked like some type of accumulation, and once it broke higher before hitting your zone it showed some strength.
As I said I probably only see it because I'm looking for reasons so please don't hold that against me lol I'm sure you won't....
But I can say I also stay away from entering at around 50% because that's where probability is equally stacked for Buyers and sellers ( until fundamental forces shift sentiment).
This is only my thought process which may be completely wrong. Maybe gila, Samsung or others who are more skilled have a better rationale.
Cheers,
C

ag77-

Give me a couple of hours and I will be home to analysis your trade you took.

So far as I am seeing now, it looks like you took a good trade.

Good meaning you followed your entry rules.

The only exception I see now is that because it was at 50% on the curve, you needed to protect your profits. This would not have been a trade I would have let my profits run because of where the zone was on the curve.

I have the curve examples if you need them again, even though I posted them.

When ever you are setting up to short term day trade then stick to that.

Do not always expect your trade to be a so called "home run" that hits your desired target.

And always monitor short term day trades on your ITF and progressively move your stop and protect what profits you make.

But give me a few hours to get to my main computer and I will put it all out on a chart for you.

ag77-

Ok so I have anylised your pair. A/J

I believe you were looking at the LTF as your main chart for rating your zone and setting your entry.

Here is why I know this:
- You said that your risk to reward was at least a 3:1 but you indicte this on the 30minLTF chart.
-On the 5min ITF I see that the risk reward was much larger of course but this is where I would be rating my zones and setting a possible entry.
-Now, I cant remember if I shared this but I am going to do it anyway, when you are short term day trading, start protecting your profits immediately after price moves in your favor. I do this when I have a 1:1 and I will take 1/2 profit and move my stop to breakeven.
- Now I also point out a second zone I would have been prepared for. It barely scores high enough on my odds enhancers but it is validated.

Your trade area was good your rating was good for the timeframe you used but for a short day trade it was incorrect.

Here are my charts.

Let me know what you may be missing. I will help.

hi gila and tyvm for ur reply

for protecting profit-the trade was up 6pips at the most so theres not mush to protect...

i dont know if thats exactly what u meant, but after i posted the trade and looked it over i think i know what was the mistake here

on my original post i wrote that LTF-M30 trend is down- imo this is my main mistake-the trend is up!!. M5 is up too. on the daily procedure file u gave us the guidlines are that when LTF and ITF are up is to sell only at the extreme, so even a good level as this wont qualify since its 50%, and maybe its explains why the higher curve level did work even due it has lower OH.

is this what u meant? is this make sense?

ag77-

Check out the charts I gave.

You were right with your entry area, but it looks as though you were monitoring your trade on the LTF and not the ITF.

When I look at the entries I would have taken(hindsite), I see that I would have had a 1:1 on the first zone and that trade would have eventually broke even. Free trade right.

Then the second zone was where my most extreme entry for the curve would have been so I would have profited from it.

But I would have been short term day trading that so I would have needed to be present the whole time.

And to answer your question yes when both the LTF and ITF are up I will only take a trade at the most extreme zones. That trade you took did qualify for a short term day trade, but you are right it would not have been a profit.

I protect my losses on any entry I take. If price moves out of my zone and I have a 1:1 while day trading I will move my stop to breakeven.

Attention Everyone-

I am posting some DZ areas for USD/CAD.

I have only circled these areas because my zones are found on my 5min chart.

These are short term day trade set ups but the bottom two are at the most extreme of the curve.

I will be progressive with my stops, by using HL's and HH closes on the bottom two zones.

The zones are all really low risk.

Also beware of any SZ that have developed or will develope.

Hi Gila,

Sorry If I have misunderstood, however with your STF what exactly are you doing when fine tuning. Am I right in understanding that you sometimes just use the ITF and enter off that, if zone is narrow?

However, when zooming into STF to fine tune, is it just orginal zones on the STF within the ITF that you are looking for, to reduce risk? Or some kind of other confirmation.

As per above chart (post 189), I note you are marking what would be STF zones on ITF curve. So you also wait for price to hit those zones on the STF as long as they are within rules on ITF curve?

Thanks,

C

Attention Everyone-

I would like to share a procedure with you that helped me understand and see areas of imbalance.

Now for my fine tune procedure:
-First find an area/or zone of imbalance(at this point it will not be considered a zone until you confirm it)
-There needs to be a Leg in, Base and Leg out.
-Legs are ERC with shorter wicks.
-Bases are a consolidation of candles with no particular direction.(longer wicks)
-Identify your legs with a verticle line going thorough both legs(you will only use the verticle line to train your eyes)
-Your leg out needs to be "exciting", more movment than the leg in(leg out is most important leg)
-Next, is the base "boring" and directionless?

What you need to know at this point is, your lines. Distal and Proximal Lines.
-Distal line is the line furthest from current price.
-Proximal line is the line closest to price.

Difference between a exciting candle and a boring candle:
-Exciting candles have bodies that are more then 50% of their entire range(high to low).
-Boring candles have bodies that are 50% or less of their entire range(high to low)

Now calculation for fine tuning:
-Start with the base.
-You will be using all the candles in the base as if they are one, so you will have a High, Low/Open,and Close in the base.
-Calculate the distance between the High and Low point in the base(High - Low)
-Calculate the distance between the close and open in the base(Open and close is different for a bear candle compared to a bull candle)
-Now you will sometimes use both a bull and bear candle when calculating, thats is ok because the base is treated as a whole.
-Think of the base as one candle instead of two or more.

Now that you have your two calculations for base we will find out the difference between the two:
-So to determine if the base is "boring" we will subtract the body from the range.(Range - Body)
-Body needs to be 50% or less than the entire range.
-Now take that final calculation and divide it by the range.(Final calculation / Range)
-Now you will see if the base is truly "boring".
-If it is over 50% of the range move on.

Once you do this exercise for a few weeks you will be able to start seeing areas of imbalance this is to only help train you for fine line placement.

Your Proximal line will be placed closer to price in the base and the distal line will be at the most extreme wick from price.

One more thing: a gap makes a boring looking candle exciting.

And another important thing: RBR or DBD's, the Distal line will be placed at wick on leg in
RBD and DBR's, Distal line wil be placed at most extreme wick.

I hope this helps everyone.

Gila-
I am reading your thread and must commend you for the superb instructional value of your contribution. You teach a quite comprehensive
trading strategy and I need to invest a lot of effort grasping it all. But I feel that it will be a gainful effort, and I only wish for
your continued great input further on. I am sure to ask some questions in the future for clarification.
Right now I thank you.
torance

torance-

Thank you.

It is a lot to take in I agree.

My routine is always about staying patient and disciplined.

Overall, for me to find my own "grove" took 2 1/2 years.

My knowledge is free to anyone that wants to understand my methods.

So what I am teaching here is just what you will see on the outside of my trading techniques.

I can only give the mechanics, your own personal trading style will be up to you.

Over the entrie time I have been trading, I have never met anyone with the same trading style.

You will always see everyone giving differing advice that will contradict anothers advice.

Remember that any trading strategy is worthless if the trader is not in control of their emotions. See for yourself.

So Only take in what you KNOW and UNDERSTAND. Eventually you will be successful.

Gila

Hi Gila
I've just sold at zone below

duke789-

That looks likea good zone to short.

I see your targets looks like a good reward if they are reached.

Which pair have you shorted?

Nice to hear from you as well.

How has everything been going for you?

Hi Gila,
That's NZDUSD H1 chart
Just come back and enjoy my journey after 2 weeks being stuck in my job.
Thank you for always being here and deliver knowledge.

Hello Gilamonster

I am glad you open thread...I am late to discover it but i will try to catch with you as soon as possible. Reading thread i am still missing about fresh levels ...Did you cover it but I missed it or you don't mind to give some examples of fresh and not fresh levels please.

usdcad

buytosell-

Thanks for joing in.

A fresh level is an area where price has tuned trend or continued trend with out reacting to a specific S/D level.

A level that is not fresh is one that has alreay reacted to a supply or demand level.

I will trade some S/D zones that are not frsh but the rest of the entry has to be more compelling.

Before I enter any trade I will rate my zone using my odds enhancers.

These help me find the STRONGEST zones to trade.

Here is an example of my odds enhancers.

Let me know if you would likea recent chart for an example to better understand fresh levels and what may not be in your best interests.

Hello Gilamonster,

Yes..in your next just few posts please mark not fresh and good and not so good fresh levels...should be enough.

Thank you for your time and effort.