Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Another question FXHard,

if you do not do any of the analysis/preparation mentioned, would it not be more logical to trade an EA?
Or put differently, what is the added value of manual execution given that you try to take price as the only input?

Does anyone know of an EA for this strategy?

In this one message you must have outlined at least 8 possible fundamentals that I NEVER think about. And since they can cross-filter, the number of possible combinations is in the thousands! Even with the mind of Einstein, I just can not see how this can lead to a long term net positive. There are just too many variables, too many intangibles to consider. You are obviously a very intelligent guy. But this is also your biggest problem. You just can not seem to let go of everything you think you have learned over the last 20 years and simply sit back and do nothing other than follow price where it leads.

It also helps to step back and consider what a really nice CZ looks like, and is comprised of. Your current example all day today has been with G/U, for instance. And you also talk like we are risking equity on the exact same CZ's. But on my chart I don't see a CZ worth considering. My last Cable CZ was from last Thursday, in fact. So for me, all of that wasted time worrying about the GBP news release was even more ridiculous to consider, because it wasn't even close to being on my radar in the first place. So obviously, I have a much tighter filter on what CZ's are than you do. Which is normal; almost no one has CZ filters as strict as me. But I tell you, that is what protects my equity, not all those so-called market fundamentals you are so fond of. Because if I don't see a CZ, then obviously my equity won't be placed at risk until I do. And that fact alone is what keeps me out of 80% of all the trouble you see on your charts, and must then devise a strategy to evade. I don't lose any sleep evading those same pitfalls, because my definition of what makes a great CZ keeps me as safe as I can possibly expect to be.

Dear FXHard,

thanks a lot for the explanations. I think I understand what you mean. Of course, it makes perfect sense. I guess that with that degree of selection, you would have a low number of trades per week (which is perfectly fine!), like 2 or 3 trades per week depending on the number of markets you watch.

I would be interested though how you would think about the following (which I do quite often):

Let's say that the price moves within a nice box and does not break out yet.
Now you know that very important data is about to be published. Like unemployment data.
Onbviously, you do not know whether the price will break up or down.
So why not leave 2 stop-orders, one to buy above the upper buffer and one to sell below the lower buffer line?

Scenario 1: The price breaks up, you get filled, the other order acts as a stop.
Scenario 2: The price breaks down, you get filled, the other order acts as a stop.
Scenario 3: The price does not break out, you delete the orders, nothing gained nothing lost.

This would be like a "free" option, you either get filled or not.
Obviously, if the market goes crazy, you could get filled and quickly get stopped out.
Also, you should enter the orders just before the announcement in order to avoid an early fill.

What do you think about that?

(you are right, I am a rather active trader and while I am selective with boxes it is abvious now that your box dimension settings are significantly tighter, leading to less trades but better breakouts, too.............................................a different style which makes absolutely sense though)

Respectfully, I'm not here to learn how to trade like you. It's supposed to be the other way around. It's becoming clear that you have taken shortcuts with your overall SSBO experience, or else we wouldn't be having this discussion. I have a feeling that if you had performed the 100-day forward test with a live trading diary, all of these questions would already be settled. Regardless, there's really nothing more I can add that will persuade you, if I haven't already.

Fractal, you should read this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=471783

It's a classic type of post from a trader that has gotten burnt by putting their trust in all the wrong things. When I read his post #1 I thought of you. Hard not to, when the 2 of you spend all your time talking about "fundamentals" and "analysis".

This guy has been a member here since 2009, and yet he is just as clueless today as he was when he started. Five years from now he will probably still sound exactly the same, if he has any money left.

Technicals... Fundamentals... Analysis... News... No news... Time frames... Indicators... EA's... Oscillators... Simple... Exponential... Heiken Ashi... Heiken Ashi Smoothed... Renko... RainbowMA... Breakouts... Sessions... There's an almost endless list of things to distract us from the reality of naked trading. The sheer amount of bad information is staggering, to say the least. It's a wonder anyone can beat the odds.

But I'm here to say that it can be done! You just have to forget most of what you think you already know.

Kiss ass! LOL

Good to see you again, Tom. How are things in the Gulf this winter?

Hi FXHard,

I realized that the way I use the SSBO deviates too far from the original framework and goes beyond "making it my own" which is why I should also stop posting trades, let us reserve this thread for the original method only.
I do have a rather complex framework which I developed over years and explaining it would confuse people rather than help anyone. And you are right, complexity has a cost, sometimes it pays to keep things simple, also depending on how many resources you want to devote to an activity.

I can honestly say that this thread is the best fx thread I ever found and believe me, I have seen a lot over the years.
Once again, THANK YOU for your work FXHard. One should judge people on the basis of their deeds and you have done a lot for us all. Some people think that your tone of communication is rough at times, but you knew that this was the only way to give this thread a fair chance of becoming what it became. Too many vendors, amateurs, dark forces would have destroyed this thread if you would not have protected it at any cost.
I highly respect that. Guys, this man is the truth.

FF

If you would have time to go over my posts again at some point, it would be awesome if you could answer the other questions I posted. Thanks in advance.

The weather here has been tremendous. I must admit that I have taken great glee in watching the news of the snow and ice storms around the nation.

Live pic of a CZ on E/U that just triggered. Absolutely no market research or analysis was used, or other outside indicators needed. And yet, here is a perfect CZ less than 10p tall, which I will soon exploit.

All it takes to achieve this is the complete knowledge and faith in the system I am trading with, and the patience not to rush into trades while I wait for the next CZ to form. It's literally the simplest thing in the world to present in writing, but clearly it is much harder for many traders to comprehend and exploit themselves.

I had a great session. 5 nice box breaks. This was a slow week so somehow the action shifted to Friday.
Overall I had a good week. Here what I can recall: 0 trades on Monday, 3 on Tuesday, 3 on Wednesday, 4 on Thursday, 5 on Friday. My win/loss ratio this week was ok. I realized that I am definitely on the more active side compared to most traders here when it comes to the number of trades, in most cases, the application of the original SSBO would lead to around 4 trades per week, would that be a fair guess?

In 'my world', the US housing data led to a bullish break in EURUSD...

Apologies, as I said, I should not post these trades here....

I got the same breakout you did, and I haven't looked at the news for months.

Your techniques may have served you well in the past, Fractal, but with SSBO they are just a waste of time and effort.

Post all the pics you want. Just leave out any mention of news or other types of so-called analysis. If you didn't know which direction price would point before the news was released, then your analysis gave you absolutely no actionable advantage and should be discarded as the dead weight and panacea it is.

The adage about the horse and the water applies here. I can give you 1000 examples of how simple and stress free SSBO is, and how meaningless your type of pre-game analysis is, but until you take the steps on your own to follow my example, nothing I say will matter very much.

Well,

as I tried to explain before, of course I did not know whether the housing data would be positive or negative.....but what I knew is the following: there is a tight CZ in EURUSD and at 16:00 my time sth will happen...

it is not much work to be aware of these events whereby not the direction but the time is known in advance...

at least, it tells you when to pay additional attention, doesn't it.......anyways....of course the box break is the signal, nothing else...

I'll answer this statement the same way I always do: Prove your claim to me. Show me 100 consecutive CZ's, and highlight the ones that support this model, where tracking the news shows you where a CZ is primed to break out within a specific and limited set of bars. BUT... you must also highlight the ones that didn't. In other words, you must give equal space to the breakouts that happened right on schedule with the news as fits your claims/model, as well as the breakouts that happened too early or too late, according to the same expectation. For example, what is your news box size? One M15 bar before and after a scheduled news release? Three? What ever the number may be, plot the breakout for Before, During, and After and prove to me that he During breakouts out-performed the other 2 combined.

As you can see, there is only 1 way to be exactly right on the money, but there are 2 ways it can go against you. In order for your claims to be valid, the total sum of these 2 conditions together -- the conditions you do not expect to happen -- must still add up to less impact than the 1 condition you do expect.

Without cherry picking, I just do not see how you can prove this claim in light of these facts. So for me, these claims fall into the category of 'reasonable sounding fallacies'. There are many claims wrapped around Forex that sound reasonable. Too many. Hundreds, possibly. But so far none of them have been proven. And I don't even ask for 10 years of back-data for my proof, like some guys I know. I only ask for 100 consecutive CZ's, which adds up to only about 10-12 months of data.

You MUST understand, Fractal, I used to be just like you! I was suckered by all the same fallacies early on in my Forex experience same as you. You, and all the guys that come in here, are a version of my younger self. I know EXACTLY what you think, and why you think it. I was a sucker for these fallacies, and you still are one. That's the difference. But I've been in your shoes, and all I can do is point the way out. Whether you guys follow my lead or not is not up to me. Some have, many have not. But I can easily tell one from the other.

Dear indicator gods,

Can you please make the current indicator work in such a way that it supports a set number of bars. Currently it's possible to lock the range height, but it doesn't appear to be possible to lock the # of bars.

Can anyone modify the indicator to do such a thing? e.g. instead of 20 pips x 10 bars (variable), i want it to be 20 pips (variable) x 10 bars (fixed). Hope this makes sense!

Sorry if i sound stupid, i am willing to explain it further

Forexhard, congratulations.

I actually learned something from this thread! I was very very bored and decide to browse the recycle bin for some juicy controversy and I found this thread. Spent the last three days reading it. I did read it all.

Your indicator is great. You have actually shown a way where a limited martingale will work. New traders that come in only have to play with the settings a bit and understand the system and rather basic money management, and they are golden.

I prefer to keep my boxes down to 2-3 per week, and trade those. I can come up with that so quickly because our trading triggers are very similar. In any event, you have done a wonderful job here.