AUD/USD

In today's case, you would've had to had slept with whoever was compiling that data at the Australian Bureau of Statistics and satisfied him/her or made him/her an offer that he/she couldn't refuse...

AUD has been range bound all month. Upside capped by weak Chinese macro data, downside capped by the weak USD and bond markets pricing in that interest rate cycle has bottomed.
in addition to this the RBA has effectively set a ceiling and base. If the currency trades up to far into the 90s they will talk it down and previously they put their "fair value" levels around 85. US managed money is still net short the AUD and have been since the big slide from parity last year.

Last big downside dump was the flash PMI but Europe & US bid it back up off the 8940 level only to see it cap out again at 9040.
Big macro print this week is US GDP on Friday with 2.5% analyst consensus and then the official Chinese PMI comes out on Saturday.
analysts are looking for 50.

longer term i would favor trading the short side of the AUD. while not all US data has been affected by the weather any uptick in jobs data will give the greenback a boost alongside tapering and a longer term rate tightening bias coming through in 2015. base metals are soft, iron ore has broken 120, coal is oversupplied and under loved and Chinese policy is steering away from aggressive growth. combined with weak domestic unemployment and generally poor domestic data it seems unlikely the AUD has much upside apart from USD side weakness and short covering rallies.

that said many people on this forum fail to really spell out what time frame they trade. jobbing a 10 minute chart for 15 pips is clearly different from holding a positions for days or weeks. february has been the month for the range trader provided they are looking for 30 or 40 as opposed to hundreds of pips in a move. if i was looking to go long i would buy the supports around 8930 or the 30 day moving av around 89 with pretty tight stops.

i read this forum from time to time. i have traded currency on and off for a few years. i am a base metals trader by my profession.

which one could you recommend and how much do they go for each month?

NO THANK YOU!!!!!

you didn't know the game is rigged?

Yes I do, and I've been studying bank manipulation, don't let anyone tell you the banks don't control the market and the forex market is to big to be manipulated.

According to what I've learned banks have to create the market in order to move the massive amounts of money they're trying to move because the liquidity isn't there for them like it is for the retail trader.

I'm considering a short on the Gbp/ Jpy at the moment because its showing a pin threw the 170.68 level, I'll be keeping an eye on this one for a few.

going up with bad data，that is interesting.

The Money Makers are in play!!!

fuck the data.
long aussie on dips.

This week the Aussie dollar has been weakening in line with the Chinese Yuan off of direct intervention by the People's Bank of China. Earlier today there was another sudden sell-off of Chinese Yuan, causing the Aud to fall across the board. Some insight to trader's anticipations:

USDCNY – Traded as high as 6.134 upon its open (6.1192), signaling trader’s anticipation of further yuan weakness.

I had to sleep with the entire RBA... but hey I made 339 pips..

Hi Ken,
Can you suggest the best paid data subscription you've experienced and how much is it?
Thanks buddy

It's the lot size that counts.

Consider the support on AUD throughout February. There's simply no denying it. Do you see what I'm talking about?

interesting observation

latest pattern formed... PB + IB + Bull Candle Broke Up The High of PB + (yesterday) IB

what's next?

Still long A/U

1.0 lots..

That's what she said

My 15 Min Ichimoku ... is suggesting it is a very short bull run and almost exhausted.
thoughts?

Agree, i already close my long, and switch to short now. Bad news from swissy and euro will help to push down until sterling time. It probably a short bear run too.