Wierd, negative USD news and EU goes short... Wassup?
- #10,262
- Feb 25, 2014 9:07am Feb 25, 2014 9:07am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
Wierd, negative USD news and EU goes short... Wassup?
US stock markets ain't doing too well this morning. Richmond FED manufacturing index which isn't high impact news was a big miss this morning too.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
{quote} Classic buy the rumor sell the news LOL. US stock markets ain't doing too well this morning.
There is just so much info to keep tabs on, I cannot wrap my head around it all ...
To be honest though, I should have expected it. i should know by now, if I think I should buy, then I should actually be selling
H
- #10,265
- Feb 25, 2014 9:14am Feb 25, 2014 9:14am
BTW, is anyone trading this afternoons
Shining my guns for tomorrows U.K. GDP numbers. Also will try my hand at U.S. home sales,bet it's going to be a terrible one.
{quote} Classic buy the rumor sell the news LOL. US stock markets ain't doing too well this morning. Richmond FED manufacturing index which isn't high impact news was a big miss this morning too.
) and have managed to recoup my losses (x3 and counting) from going long...so, it isn't all badBut still, dude, do me a favour ?
Cheers
H
- #10,267
- Feb 25, 2014 9:22am Feb 25, 2014 9:22am
{quote} Went long on UD/CD basically got out at breakeven,wanted to leave for a longer term but eghh....i better stick to the rules otherwise it going to be like in slaughter house
See now its climbing,I need some espresso now! I'm reacting too fast, in and out in 3 minutes
now market has "digested" and making the moves,Just don't be tempted to go now you foolish,thinking bullish and making Hungarian goulash person(that is my mantra for myself lol!)
- #10,270
- Feb 25, 2014 9:39am Feb 25, 2014 9:39am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
{quote} Ah, do tell... please ?
I placed long and short straddle trades on the 9am - 11am spreads. Can't be stopped or slipped or lose more than put up for initial risk if it closes out of the money. I didn't reach my targets so I'm letting them run to the 11 am expiry.
Like this. Watch all the vids in their trading strategies section. I don't trade the binaries.
Inserted Video
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
- #10,271
- Feb 25, 2014 9:45am Feb 25, 2014 9:45am
{quote} I entered in a short (Big up Moonie
Well, I moved my stop aggressively in order to control my TP, everything turned out okay... Please take note that this was the 1st time I have taken a news trade and managed it the way Tony intended, so I am happy with how it worked out...
Below is a screenshot of the two positions, net pips was around 20 ...
Below is a screenshot of the two positions, net pips was around 20 ...
{quote} Many thanks H. I place my longs 6 pips above the current price and shorts six pips below the current price (on a correlating pair), so the price can go and do its stop hunting before moving in the true direction. I have to walk away and let it do its thing, otherwise I cant stop myself fiddling.
- #10,275
- Feb 25, 2014 11:33am Feb 25, 2014 11:33am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
{quote} There is just so much info to keep tabs on, I cannot wrap my head around it all ... To be honest though, I should have expected it. i should know by now, if I think I should buy, then I should actually be selling
The beauty of Tony's trading plan and his simple "Buy" only strategy with very good risk reward during volatile events is that it's simple and you don't need to follow everything. It's basically just a numbers game with the emphasis on risk and money management.
A couple sites I use to keep my fingers on the pulse of the market and understand what is going on or what happened are...
FINVIS - I only look at the futures to get an idea of the markets sentiment... NOTE: It is delayed data. Scroll down and it'll give you a great visual of "risk on" "risk off" sentiment.
Forex Live - I just read the commentary and don't pay attention at all to the readers comments except for entertainment purposes if I'm bored.
Forex Factory - I use for the economic calendar and trading strategy ideas. Made a couple friends here too. The main reason I'm following this thread is it gave me some fresh ways to look at trading high volatility events and not be tied to the charts 12 hours a day for short term trading. I'm not following Tony to trade his plan and copy his trades. I'm using his and other ideas here to develop and fine tune my own strategy which right now looks like a short term options bear bull box straddle strategy that I enter 30 t0 60 minutes before a news release (entry the minute the option is active so my entry price is as close to the floor as possible and ending 1 to 1.5 hours after the news) with defined risk that can't be stopped or slipped and can be exited any time is the way I want to trade this.
Trading Economics - I use for the Calendar. Something another member in this thread posted. I like it and I like that I can set it to High importance events only then easily copy and past it into a spreadsheet and weed out what I'm not interested in.
I also have an alarm clock set up on my computer that I am entering the entire weeks events into and it wakes me up or reminds me something is coming up soon. My computer stays on 24/7 during trading hours. An alarm is important for trading this news and also for avoiding an intraday trade with another plan and getting caught by surprise with a news event.
I thank Tony and all that contribute here.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
- #10,277
- Feb 25, 2014 11:46am Feb 25, 2014 11:46am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
- #10,278
- Edited 12:10pm Feb 25, 2014 11:58am | Edited 12:10pm
{quote} hmm i dunno, but i do believe at least a 1:4 risk reward ratio is possible with this pair.. that to me sounds like good ratio because one needs only 20% wins to breakeven, news implies a much cleaner, quick trade
Also XXX/NOK at 9:00 GMT or 4:00 AM EST.
PipKiller, Moonie, many thanks for the answers and the time that you took to write them.
@Fx3422271, will look forward to those news events
Will probably setup a small trade according to PA to see how it goes, however, my broker has HUGE spreads (50 pips plus) on these pairs, even during the major sessions...so will see...
@Everyone, anybody else looking forward to GBP news tomorrow? Can we compare opening positions again?
Cheers, it's slowdown time for me here...all else fails, will see you all tomorrow morning again (ZA time).
H
@Fx3422271, will look forward to those news events
Will probably setup a small trade according to PA to see how it goes, however, my broker has HUGE spreads (50 pips plus) on these pairs, even during the major sessions...so will see...@Everyone, anybody else looking forward to GBP news tomorrow? Can we compare opening positions again?
Cheers, it's slowdown time for me here...all else fails, will see you all tomorrow morning again (ZA time).
H
- #10,280
- Feb 25, 2014 12:40pm Feb 25, 2014 12:40pm
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: I make Rambo look like a boy scout. | 1,472 Posts
{quote} The key is to develop something that you understand and can execute. I'm going to draw up a chart in a couple minutes to give you an idea of what I did.
9AM - 11am Bull box spread 1.6710 - 1.6860.... Entry price 1.6719
Entry 1.6719 - Floor 1.6710 = 9 pips... My max risk 9 pips = $900 + $9 fee. $909 is what it cost to buy this option. I can't be stopped out, whipped or slipped and my risk is never more than the price of the option which was $909 even if the trade goes against me 100 pips which would be $10000. The most I can make is the ceiling at 1.6860 which is 141 pips ($14100) even if price goes higher than 1.6860 and I can exit at any time before the 11 am option expiration. If it is at a loss, you let it run out to expiration in case it comes back and you may even profit both ways.
Risk $909 max purple box
Reward $14,100 max blue box
What makes it a Straddle is I also took a short position.
9am - 11am bear box spread 1.6560 - 1.6710 ... Entry price 1.6697
Max Risk 1.6710 - 1.6697 = 13 pips $1309 with $9 exchange fee. $1309 is what it cost to take this position. orange box
Max Reward 1.6697 - 1.6560 = 137 pips $13700 yellow box
Total cost of this straddle position $2218 (22.18 pips)
I didn't hit 100 pip targets I did enter to take profit early so I let it run to the 11am expiration. The trade did go to just over 50 pips profit at one point.
Result: Trade closed at 1.66716 + 25.4 pips $2540 - 9 exchange fee = $2531. Bull box spread that closed out of the money (worthless) there is no exchange fee with this exchange.
$2531 - $1309 (cost of bear spread option) - $909 (cost of bull spread option) = $313 profit. Not what I was hoping for but risk was very low. Worst I could have done was lose $2218 if both positions closed exactly at 1.3710
I'm going to "test drive" this strategy in demo for a month or so and then give it a shot with a small live account.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way