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AUD/USD

  • #73,141
  • Feb 25, 2014 6:22am Feb 25, 2014 6:22am
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...217-32w2p.html
  • #73,142
  • Feb 25, 2014 8:39am Feb 25, 2014 8:39am
A quick look at the technicals for a pair that seems to be behaving at the moment:

Inserted Video
  • #73,143
  • Feb 25, 2014 8:52am Feb 25, 2014 8:52am
Quoting Hickson
Not the time to short Aussie yet. Risk on continues.
I agree. We have a bit more to the upside on this run.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #73,144
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:07am Feb 25, 2014 9:07am
In my previous post is an article... there it is... it is catastrophal for Aud. I am in position already. Sell.
  • #73,145
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:23am Feb 25, 2014 9:23am
OK AU, if you are going to go down, GO DOWN already!!! Stop fidgeting and being like a yo-yo!!! Honestly, you think it's fun for me to have to pay swaps to go down with you? I was trying to push you up earlier and you stumped out my stops. So GO DOWN!!!

Yes, I am going crazy; I am talking to a currency.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,146
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:30am Feb 25, 2014 9:30am
Forexia, thats OK, but we cant affect the market with our emotions, so why to be angry? It still goes its way,... up, down, up, down...etc etc... I see there hundreds pips down and maybe some pips up... ? Thats the plan.
  • #73,147
  • Edited 9:47am Feb 25, 2014 9:35am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting Fana
Forexia, thats OK, but we cant affect the market with our emotions, so why to be angry? It still goes its way,... up, down, up, down...etc etc... I see there hundreds pips down and maybe some pips up... ? Thats the plan.
Nah I was just joking. So you see it going down for lots of pips as well? That's good. I just hate the back and forth reversing. AU is weak today so hopefully it will go down further.

Thanks
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,148
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:40am Feb 25, 2014 9:40am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} Nah I was just joking. So you see it going down for lots of pips going down as well? That's good. I just hate the back and forth reversing. AU is weak today so hopefully it will go down further. Thanks
Yes, so... enjoy the fun:-)
  • #73,149
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:45am Feb 25, 2014 9:45am
Quoting Fana
In my previous post is an article... there it is... it is catastrophal for Aud. I am in position already. Sell.
The entire crux of this article's thesis assumes rate hikes in developed economies. It mentions the Fed's Taper as one of the causal factors. In effect, it puts pressure on emerging market economies to prevent any capital flight so they raise their rates. High rates means slower growth. So a catch 22 for them.

I sat and thought about this for a bit. Higher real interest rates and low commodity prices. This is supportive of dollar strength which I agree with the bearish sentiment on this pair.

Any bullish play on the A/U is purely technical. So I'll admit that. I think in the end the fed will find that supporting higher equity prices they will be taking on a lot more than they can handle and the Dollar has no choice but to move up. Many funds out there support a higher USD view for the entire year for their own reasons.

My only issue is timing. Not only do technicals support higher S&P prices to about the 1900 level but they also strongly support a bearish move in USD for the short term.

In sum. I will fee more comfortable shorting this pair when the USD penetrates its third wave low on the 5th wave down.

But I always keep in mind that things can change at any moment and the 5th wave can actually never complete itself. I also realize that there is a trade-off between being skeptical of static price movement predictions and taking profits too early. This is one of my weaknesses as a trader that I am always working on.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #73,150
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:51am Feb 25, 2014 9:51am
Quoting Fana
{quote} Yes, so... enjoy the fun:-)
I just pray I won't have to pay the swaps to get the pips. Please, Forex God, please, let AU go down NOW!!! I have been a good trader...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,151
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:53am Feb 25, 2014 9:53am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I wonder how all your trades are winning trades. By this standard you would have been a billionaire soon. I still wonder like attila said whether you are a fake person or not nobody knows
He has made 11,900+ posts. How does he find the time?
  • #73,152
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:00am Feb 25, 2014 10:00am
Giveachance is being ignored by Ken A. Ken A's status on FF here is a Non Member. I wonder what does that mean.

Somebody is playing with the price today. AU is not going down as it should.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,153
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:00am Feb 25, 2014 10:00am
Neqrotik,

When AUD interest rates rose, the AUD rose. That was prior to the shit hitting the fan in '08.

Assuming you are correct in your logic, your scenario not only relies in higher rates, but lower commodity prices.

2.5% is low for AUD, and I see the odds of going lower are nil. If anything, the RBA will raise rates by at least a quarter point or two this year.

The USD can't handle higher rates, so on rates alone, it's a win for AUD.

So, with countries having printed themselves into inflation, will commodity prices really drop?

There is real demand. Something to think about.
  • #73,154
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:03am Feb 25, 2014 10:03am
Quoting TheTopBloke
Neqrotik, When AUD interest rates rose, the AUD rose. That was prior to the shit hitting the fan in '08. Assuming you are correct in your logic, your scenario not only relies in higher rates, but lower commodity prices. 2.5% is low for AUD, and I see the odds of going lower are nil. If anything, the RBA will raise rates by at least a quarter point or two this year. The USD can't handle higher rates, so on rates alone, it's a win for AUD. So, with countries having printed themselves into inflation, will commodity prices really drop? There is real...
But on the other hand does the RBA REALLY want strong AU? I thought they prefer a softer AU to help with the exports.

I dunno and I don't care. Today I just want AU to go down to meet my target so I can go home with the pips.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,155
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:06am Feb 25, 2014 10:06am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} But on the other hand does the RBA REALLY want strong AU? I thought they prefer a softer AU to help with the exports. I dunno and I don't care. Today I just want AU to go down to meet my target so I can go home with the pips.
lol, how great it would be if we could WANT our way to profits.
  • #73,156
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:13am Feb 25, 2014 10:13am
Quoting JollyBean
{quote} lol, how great it would be if we could WANT our way to profits.
Well obviously I am not getting MY wants today. AU is being dragged all over the place by EU and GU. I am done caring. I have set my SL and that's it.

I am gonna end up with a loss and paying the swaps. Today's crap. Oh well.

Have good day, everyone!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #73,157
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:13am Feb 25, 2014 10:13am
Quoting TheTopBloke
Neqrotik, When AUD interest rates rose, the AUD rose. That was prior to the shit hitting the fan in '08. Assuming you are correct in your logic, your scenario not only relies in higher rates, but lower commodity prices. 2.5% is low for AUD, and I see the odds of going lower are nil. If anything, the RBA will raise rates by at least a quarter point or two this year. The USD can't handle higher rates, so on rates alone, it's a win for AUD. So, with countries having printed themselves into inflation, will commodity prices really drop? There is real...
George Soros would disagree strongly with the "AUD rates rise = AUD rise" logic. I'm not trying to name throw at all. But he recounts his experiences in "The Alchemy of Finance" that currency movements are more correlated with trade balances than carry trade considerations. I strongly recommend you read his chapter on "Reflexivity in the Currency Market"

Which only speaks more to my logic about the commodity problem. I believe that interest rates rising amid lower commodity demand and prices only exacerbates current account deficits and in turn trade balances. I also believe that public sector debt will swell as this commodity problem persist which is another conversation.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #73,158
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:19am Feb 25, 2014 10:19am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} But on the other hand does the RBA REALLY want strong AU? I thought they prefer a softer AU to help with the exports. I dunno and I don't care. Today I just want AU to go down to meet my target so I can go home with the pips.
A/U is highly correlated with equity markets especially A/J

So

Probably they don't remember what RBA wants
  • #73,159
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:25am Feb 25, 2014 10:25am
Quoting Forexia
{quote} But on the other hand does the RBA REALLY want strong AU? I thought they prefer a softer AU to help with the exports. I dunno and I don't care. Today I just want AU to go down to meet my target so I can go home with the pips.
Thing is, they've been softening their stance.

Remember at first they deemed the levels "uncomfortably high"... "We want 0.85"...

Most recently, it's something along the lines of "We're OK with these levels".

Who knows what's next, but it's not surprising this positive change in tone contributes to the rise in AUD/USD.
  • #73,160
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:26am Feb 25, 2014 10:26am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} A/U is highly correlated with equity markets especially A/J So Probably they don't remember what RBA wants
Regardless today AU is just confused and doesn't really have a aim of where it wants to go. It thinks it wants to go down but is afraid and at the same time it really doesn't want to go up either. So it's just stuck in a range. And then for those of us who's short, we're gonna have to pay swaps to see if it's decided to go anywhere during the Tokyo session. Maybe the 7:00 PM EST Construction Work number will give it some direction.

Now I just hope if I am going to get stopped, I get stopped out soon before I have to pay swaps. If you are going to kill me, kill me fast, Forex God, don't make me bleed more! Please, I beg you!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
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