Sultans of Swing

Gold

... as we approach the mid march turn window shown here, the CT price objective has been satisfied...

Weekly



... happy hunting!

Word of the week: Brinkmanship

Gold
H4

Crude Observation
(brinkmanship pt deux)

WTI
H4

Hail the end of bearish inter-market divergences, and the start of a new bull market...
(in earnest this time... hopefully!)

...reading the tea leaves...

JPY Futures (continuous)
Daily


note: timing only

Gold: followup (from here)
testing my patience...

I normally dont post such minutia...
however...
some folks might find it useful...

M15

ESM: followup (from here)

Target Practice 101

S&P 500 Futures (continuous)
Daily


note: price only

Ozzie Kiwi: followup (from here)

Ka-Boom!
(aka: this move has just started...)

Daily

Euro: followup (from here)

Bull trap: next turn date is March 2nd and we are out of runway...


Daily


edit: some may argue that the high I have used to measure the fib is a price rejection level and therefore should not be used, this would be a fair comment and it may change the outlook a bit... however its best to stay on our toes and see how things evolve

Loonie:

Save the date

Daily


note: time only

Gold: followup (from here)

Test Results: Inconclusive (for now)

Gold seems to have successfully broken and tested the rising support line, within the context of the minutia. However, on higher time frames, a test of the broken trend line has not occurred yet.

I anticipate this being firmed up early in the coming week, potentially caused by market jitters surrounding the situation in Ukraine, and perhaps as soon as the wee hours of a zero liquidity Asian session... followed by a drop to the neck line level around ~1309, which should provide temporary bounce, before a resumption of the main trend...

M15

H4


food for thought: Most folks on the retail side of this business are obsessed with wanting to "nail" the top or bottom... while such pipe dreams can motivate us to spend more time than necessary on the shorter time frame charts, I would recommend waiting until a bounce from the neckline support before building a material position... in the mean time, day trading can be fun too (sometimes...)

remember that this business is a marathon not a sprint!

good luck

Euro: please ignore previous post (from here)

A mistake on my part led me to believe that the next turn date on the Daily TF was 03/02/14... and therefore I warned of a Bull Trap, however after reevaluating certain criteria, I have concluded that the date I derived was incorrect.

The correct date is 03/08/14... which leads to a material change in outlook for this pair

Adding to the analysis, a weekly context, and we get a whole new picture...

Weekly

note: timing only

Nikkei 225: Do you believe in Santa Clause?

Coincidence
+
Save the date

Weekly

note: timing only

thanks for your analysis.. can you please analyze eurchf on big time frames like D1, Weekly or monthly?? thanks

It's been range bound for ages, although I see a potential breakout this year, I'll put something up for you

Euro Swiss: back of the envelope analysis

The demand line was broken, and the break was qualified, which gives us a clearly defined downside target to the ~1.2 level (+ some fib targets). Timing wise, the next pivot is around 3/20, so the move should remain supported.

I expect to see the momentum divergence become more pronounced as we approach the time/price targets...

However, the keys to this pair are the individual currencies; i.e. CHF and EUR (futures)

I am generally bearish on CHF this year, and expect to see a material deterioration of this currency, my year end target for USD/CHF is above parity...However the move may take longer than I initially expected to unfold... we may need to wait a few weeks, and perhaps into Q3.

Therefore, the cautionary tale for this pair goes as follows: Even though this is a qualified break to the downside in this pair, after a VERY long period of consolidation (the weekly has been flat for years), it may turn out to be a fake-out, so remain on guard.

Daily


good luck!

add: there isnt much to be gained from looking at this pair on weekly TF since the chart is basically flat, the monthly is all over the place... so if a trend is to develop in this pair, I think we are in the timing window to see it being initiated... no need to rush, the markets will still be here next year...

Euro/Yen vs S&P 500 Futures (continuous)

Price Relativism: Waiting for a higher low

H4

Gold: update (from here)

Third time's the charm?

After the gap up on Monday (as expected) and the de-escalation by Russian forces just now (also expected), which were discussed here;

gold looks set to break down through its trend line

Note that gold is now within the influence of its Daily and Weekly time pivots (shown previously), both of which are pointing downwards...

H4

Euro Yen

AKA: my favorite girl

Day Trading

H4


note: timing pivots shown are for H4, however, there is also a Daily pivot today (pointing up); the ultimate swing targets are much higher...
note 2: I am not a day trader, nor do i recommend day trading, unless you have several years of experience...

Crude Observation

high oil prices = a drag on global growth

WTI (Continuous)

Weekly

I never even knew this thread exists! But this is the way I trade, so I will be following closely...

Keep up the good work!

I agree with gold by the way, price action sell signal - Reversal IB on the daily.