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  • #1,201
  • Edited 2:53pm Feb 24, 2014 12:10pm | Edited 2:53pm
Would this be a valid setup on H4 USDCAD?
Would the first FTA be the round number, about 30 pips from current price?
Wel, while reading the thread I learned on lower timeframes more confirmation is needed. Meanwhile the next H4 bar (not yet closed is forming and made a low exactly on the low of the bar before and above the LLS now. I will wait and see ...
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Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
  • #1,202
  • Feb 24, 2014 7:14pm Feb 24, 2014 7:14pm
Quoting forexpiet
Would this be a valid setup on H4 USDCAD? Would the first FTA be the round number, about 30 pips from current price? Wel, while reading the thread I learned on lower timeframes more confirmation is needed. Meanwhile the next H4 bar (not yet closed is forming and made a low exactly on the low of the bar before and above the LLS now. I will wait and see ... {image}
I have been watching this on the 1H. Haven't yet found any fake out trigger worth really going for. We had a bullish outside bar on the first touch, but as a trigger would have been very aggressive. Can you work out why being extra careful here is so important?

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,203
  • Feb 24, 2014 7:54pm Feb 24, 2014 7:54pm
Head and Shoulder pattern is followed by period of consolidation. There is break out of consolidation followed by a retest of the vbrn 9.0 which is a ppz. Price fall back and closes below the HHR. I entered short and my target is the bar high of the consolidation box. If price closes above the HHR (which roughly corresponds to 23% fib retrace), I will exit the trade.

N
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  • #1,204
  • Feb 24, 2014 8:28pm Feb 24, 2014 8:28pm
Here is another one that I took late yesterday and I am still in it. The trigger for me was the 2H BEOB. Considering the fact that the HHR lies in a key weekly ppz (please zoom out), I thought price might just shoot down a bit to the next fib level. It has retested the HHR today which would have been a good place to add to my position, but I missed it.
If price hits the 38% fib retrace, I will exit.
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  • #1,205
  • Feb 25, 2014 12:10am Feb 25, 2014 12:10am
Quoting Neytiri
Head and Shoulder pattern is followed by period of consolidation. There is break out of consolidation followed by a retest of the vbrn 9.0 which is a ppz. Price fall back and closes below the HHR. I entered short and my target is the bar high of the consolidation box. If price closes above the HHR (which roughly corresponds to 23% fib retrace), I will exit the trade. N {image}
Its four hours after my entry now. It's not moving an inch. Patience.

N
  • #1,206
  • Edited 1:11am Feb 25, 2014 12:59am | Edited 1:11am
Quoting ghous
{quote} ...Can you work out why being extra careful here is so important? .... g.
Price is 'just below' the BRN 1.1100 and this level was 'rejected' on the Daily by a (huge) pinbar, almost a FB on the Daily.
Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
  • #1,207
  • Feb 25, 2014 1:58am Feb 25, 2014 1:58am
Quoting forexpiet
{quote} Price is 'just below' the BRN 1.1100 and this level was 'rejected' on the Daily by a (huge) pinbar, almost a FB on the Daily.
The LLS comes off a minor swing low.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,208
  • Feb 25, 2014 2:56am Feb 25, 2014 2:56am
Quoting Neytiri
{quote} Its four hours after my entry now. It's not moving an inch. Patience. N
.
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  • #1,209
  • Feb 25, 2014 3:41am Feb 25, 2014 3:41am
Ghous,

I took this GBPUSD fakeout trade today. I entered when price closed above the 150 ema. It was a late entry. In your experience, if the fake out is off key support/ resistance regions (in this case brn 1.66), is it O.K. to take the fake out trade even though it is heading into a nearby 89/150/365 ema.

Thanks,

N
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,210
  • Feb 25, 2014 3:47am Feb 25, 2014 3:47am
Quoting Neytiri
Here is another one that I took late yesterday and I am still in it. The trigger for me was the 2H BEOB. Considering the fact that the HHR lies in a key weekly ppz (please zoom out), I thought price might just shoot down a bit to the next fib level. It has retested the HHR today which would have been a good place to add to my position, but I missed it. If price hits the 38% fib retrace, I will exit. {image}
Hiya newbie here, i learn something from everyone. Keep up the good work of sharing knowledge. All credit goes to Ghous and others. How is it your Risk is greater than your Reward ?? What is your success rate with this method ?? Although i know its good to give markets breathing room. Cheers
  • #1,211
  • Feb 25, 2014 4:39am Feb 25, 2014 4:39am
Quoting tinygiant
{quote} Hiya newbie here, i learn something from everyone. Keep up the good work of sharing knowledge. All credit goes to Ghous and others. How is it your Risk is greater than your Reward ?? What is your success rate with this method ?? Although i know its good to give markets breathing room. Cheers
Hi T,

Welcome to this wonderful thread. Right now at this stage of my trading career, I am not too much bothered about Risk-reward. If I see what I perceive is a good setup, I just take it and close the position at trouble areas. But I don't know whether it is the right thing to do in the long run.
The success rate with this method is high, but it depend on several factors, the most important being is to take only the A+ set ups.

Neytiri
  • #1,212
  • Feb 25, 2014 5:23am Feb 25, 2014 5:23am
Quoting Neytiri
Ghous, I took this GBPUSD fakeout trade today. I entered when price closed above the 150 ema. It was a late entry. In your experience, if the fake out is off key support/ resistance regions (in this case brn 1.66), is it O.K. to take the fake out trade even though it is heading into a nearby 89/150/365 ema. Thanks, N {image}
Its a tough question to answer in general terms as so much depends on the situation at that time.

But I am weary of the times when price comes back to the EMA after an extended move away from it or when pulling back to it the first time after piercing it. These are also the times that these EMAs work as confluence for my trades too.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,213
  • Feb 25, 2014 8:20am Feb 25, 2014 8:20am
Quoting Neytiri
Ghous, I took this GBPUSD fakeout trade today. I entered when price closed above the 150 ema. It was a late entry. In your experience, if the fake out is off key support/ resistance regions (in this case brn 1.66), is it O.K. to take the fake out trade even though it is heading into a nearby 89/150/365 ema. Thanks, N {image}

GBPUSD blast through 1.67
  • #1,214
  • Feb 25, 2014 8:46am Feb 25, 2014 8:46am
Quoting Neytiri
{quote} GBPUSD blast through 1.67
Glad to see it moving. The XXX/USD pairs have been ridiculously pointless these days.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,215
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:45am Feb 25, 2014 9:45am
Fakeout followed by a nice rounded retest of brn 0.8.

N
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  • #1,216
  • Edited 12:08pm Feb 25, 2014 10:17am | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} The LLS comes off a minor swing low. g.
Ok, thanks.
My buy stop above the 2 small candles got triggered. The trade was 25 pips in profit. Well, if I close it now it will run to the upside if I do not, well ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Meanwhile Ghous, watched all of your video's on Youtube. Thanks very much for them!
Posting Demo charts, mirroring some of them live.
  • #1,217
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:25pm Feb 25, 2014 9:25pm
Watching for a determined close under the 1.65 RN for this setup on EUR/NZD.

Good confluence with the RN, the EMAs, the consolidation box and trend line from earlier.

A move down from here and the 1.64-ish region could well be in play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,218
  • Feb 25, 2014 10:38pm Feb 25, 2014 10:38pm
.
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  • #1,219
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:05pm Feb 25, 2014 11:05pm
Very nice thread, learning a lot from it

thanx a lot
  • #1,220
  • Feb 25, 2014 11:14pm Feb 25, 2014 11:14pm
Quoting Neytiri
. {image}
The fake out itself looks magnificent but its almost totally suffocated for space. In this context I do like your tight TP there. Tucked right where it should be for a no brainer trade.

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g.
I believe . . .
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