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AUD/USD

  • #73,061
  • Feb 21, 2014 7:42am Feb 21, 2014 7:42am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} I think because round number 0.9 was being rejected. So all bears join in the party, causing the fall.

This is the reson for the fall...granely patten 1h
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  • #73,062
  • Feb 21, 2014 7:47am Feb 21, 2014 7:47am
Honestly wondering at least from a fundamental perspective whats going to occur with AUD... large specs are already short... reason being RBA rate Cuts and China Fears. We know the RBA is now neutral. So that's a reason taken away. More interesting however is that China weakness is now someone "confirmed" and known.In hindsight it is now obvious that AUD shorts were mostly established last summer when China weakness was still basically a rumor. Now there have Two straight disappointing HSBC PMI prints. AUD stood up to a bad Aussie payrolls and a terrible HSBC China PMI, rallying back both times.

Could this mean the specs are up to their ears in AUD shorts at the moment and may not be adding for now? Also consider this is an expensive short to hold if you are paying the carry. I am eager to see positioning data this after noon.


On the technicals...

I was disappointed we rallied and closed above 0.9000 yesterday, was looking for a daily close under 0.8980 to confirm a lower low and put shorts on. Now watching for a weekly close below 0.8950 for bearish engulfment.


Would love to hear anyones overall view.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #73,063
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:01am Feb 21, 2014 8:01am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Wish you all the best. I dare not put so many, unless i see it below yesterday low.
apa khabar?
so you are in for short, kkecil?

i prefer to trade based on daily / h4.
actually i long since the opening due to PB.
if price go beyond the low then i am in loss.
keeping my fingers cross ...
  • #73,064
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:11am Feb 21, 2014 8:11am
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} apa khabar? so you are in for short, kkecil? i prefer to trade based on daily / h4. actually i long since the opening due to PB. if price go beyond the low then i am in loss. keeping my fingers cross ...
  • #73,065
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:14am Feb 21, 2014 8:14am
Quoting Citiboy
Honestly wondering at least from a fundamental perspective whats going to occur with AUD... large specs are already short... reason being RBA rate Cuts and China Fears. We know the RBA is now neutral. So that's a reason taken away. More interesting however is that China weakness is now someone "confirmed" and known.In hindsight it is now obvious that AUD shorts were mostly established last summer when China weakness was still basically a rumor. Now there have Two straight disappointing HSBC PMI prints. AUD stood up to a bad Aussie payrolls and a...
I have a theory, with all bad eco data from eurozone UK and US, big boys keep the money in gold, that and also the interest rate better for aussie and NZ. They buying money to park their capital.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #73,066
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:29am Feb 21, 2014 8:29am
The reason why I keep shorts and adding short when AUDUSD around 0.90+ today is AUDCAD above 1:1, NZDCAD above 0.9250.
however USDCAD to 1.1150+. I bet AUD will finally drop.

AUD can perform much better than CAD require CHINA PMI keeping above 51+ for a long time. I know that's impossible for now.
  • #73,067
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:35am Feb 21, 2014 8:35am
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} apa khabar? so you are in for short, kkecil? i prefer to trade based on daily / h4. actually i long since the opening due to PB. if price go beyond the low then i am in loss. keeping my fingers cross ...
Maybe it will hard to go below y's low. But going long for AU quite a risk for me.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #73,068
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:35am Feb 21, 2014 8:35am
Quoting 50pipsperday
{quote}
it is an understandable from your symbol.

i as a long tf trade so will have to leave it for the least on a day until taken out.

ej and gj are good trades as of now based on the pb + up trend.

aj in a neutral but like au let see how both turn out.

cheers to all.
  • #73,069
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:38am Feb 21, 2014 8:38am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Maybe it will hard to go below y's low. But going long for AU quite a risk for me.
if you go short, what conditions do you based on to take the short?

can share?
  • #73,070
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:56am Feb 21, 2014 8:56am
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} apa khabar? so you are in for short, kkecil? i prefer to trade based on daily / h4. actually i long since the opening due to PB. if price go beyond the low then i am in loss. keeping my fingers cross ...
hai malaysian..........
  • #73,071
  • Feb 21, 2014 9:09am Feb 21, 2014 9:09am
Still have pending shorts below 8936.

I would imagine we see a sell off (and a new LL) at closing, which should set up shorts nicely into next week.
  • #73,072
  • Feb 21, 2014 9:21am Feb 21, 2014 9:21am
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} if you go short, what conditions do you based on to take the short? can share?
During retro of mercury, AU will move back on forth with no clear direction. I short above 0.8983 (fibo minor 23.6) don't dare long, its fundamental china.
After 1-march, final short, out of retro. There i share, i am freak.
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Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #73,073
  • Feb 21, 2014 9:39am Feb 21, 2014 9:39am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} During retro of mercury, AU will move back on forth with no clear direction. I short above 0.8983 (fibo minor 23.6) don't dare long, its fundamental china. After 1-march, final short, out of retro. There i share, i am freak. {image}
thanks.
you are good.
trust the retro mercury works fine for you.
not sure how to read the retro mercury.
look forward to hearing from you on marhc 1st.

i use PA with MA and Band to trade.
follow the trend + look for the level + candle patterns
still learning
cheers
  • #73,074
  • Feb 21, 2014 6:19pm Feb 21, 2014 6:19pm
Quoting Citiboy
Honestly wondering at least from a fundamental perspective whats going to occur with AUD... large specs are already short... reason being RBA rate Cuts and China Fears. We know the RBA is now neutral. So that's a reason taken away. More interesting however is that China weakness is now someone "confirmed" and known.In hindsight it is now obvious that AUD shorts were mostly established last summer when China weakness was still basically a rumor. Now there have Two straight disappointing HSBC PMI prints. AUD stood up to a bad Aussie payrolls and a...
Forget the Fundamentals. They are just triggers for day moves.
Slowly but surely targets are being met. Remember this is a retracement & retracements can be ugly. Ozzy has a lot of pain to endure this year, but the $$hit won't hit the fan for a while yet. So down a little then up to finish the major retracement, then on down to fiinsh the major down trend. You've just got to follw the moves as they come.
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Money Makes Money
  • #73,075
  • Feb 23, 2014 1:11pm Feb 23, 2014 1:11pm
an IB formed in the up trend.
watching.
  • #73,076
  • Feb 23, 2014 2:38pm Feb 23, 2014 2:38pm
WHo know ......
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  • #73,077
  • Feb 23, 2014 3:01pm Feb 23, 2014 3:01pm
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Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #73,078
  • Feb 23, 2014 3:11pm Feb 23, 2014 3:11pm
AU Weekly.

The greater R/R is now to the upside. I note bearish sentiment around but I would think that sometimes the obvious trade isn't the safest
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  • #73,079
  • Feb 23, 2014 4:12pm Feb 23, 2014 4:12pm
Hopefully we are headed south this week.
  • #73,080
  • Feb 23, 2014 4:29pm Feb 23, 2014 4:29pm
Quoting JimmyC
AU Weekly. The greater R/R is now to the upside. I note bearish sentiment around but I would think that sometimes the obvious trade isn't the safest {image}
R/R is obviously better, but factoring the likely hood of an significant counter-trend move is less than desirable.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
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