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Markets views and trades

  • #21
  • Feb 21, 2014 3:54am Feb 21, 2014 3:54am
So worst than previous and expected mom sales data, but clearly better on YoY.

Cable is on demand, again lets see in the CFTC data.



Selling GBPUSD 1.672* w/ a tp for 1.6690....6755 will do me in a loss, since 6740 might be a stop level towards 1.6820.
  • #22
  • Feb 21, 2014 4:05am Feb 21, 2014 4:05am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Yes, handling sideways chop is really hard and I often leave my screen for a bit to avoide temptation.... UK's Retail Sales were poorer than expected, so cable spiked down towards the 6600 level and then the good PSBR number came out and so back up it went, with me on board to pirate a few pips....smaller sized as IMO that's always risky....and now I'm finished for this morning...

Nice catch! i wish i was done for the day.

But overall surplus was bad, wich might instigate even more borrowing (we will have to wait for March). All in all, comparing to EU, the UK is on the rise and the general theme is mostly bouyant.

I am however still selling in the stretching of that demand.
  • #23
  • Feb 21, 2014 4:11am Feb 21, 2014 4:11am
Quoting TLw_fx
So worst than previous and expected mom sales data, but clearly better on YoY. Cable is on demand, again lets see in the CFTC data. Selling GBPUSD 1.672* w/ a tp for 1.6690....6755 will do me in a loss, since 6740 might be a stop level towards 1.6820.

Oh boy, not the best nor the worst of fixes at 10am...

Buying GBPUSD near 1.658*

with such tight average daily ranges i'm starting to doubt my limit orders will get filled.
  • #24
  • Feb 21, 2014 4:56am Feb 21, 2014 4:56am
Watch out for the ECB's release of the LTRO's repayments by the banks, wich are running low.
  • #25
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:21am Feb 21, 2014 5:21am
Quoting TLw_fx
Watch out for the ECB's release of the LTRO's repayments by the banks, wich are running low.

So, low repayments again might mean market really expects ECB to act (ease) even more in the next meeting(s)....

Forecasters are expecting nest weeks CPI to be even lower (inflation falling).

Wasn't ECB's Coeure who said we are reaching dangerous levels of inflation? (i might be wrong, playing it from memory)
  • #26
  • Edited 6:13am Feb 21, 2014 5:23am | Edited 6:13am
USDJPY: So far that trendlibe is holding.

i'm in with a small long w/ a target at 102.70 (sorry coulnd't post it here in advance).

However, if this drags on to the sides will most likely close before us data at lunch hour.
  • #27
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:50am Feb 21, 2014 5:50am
Quoting TLw_fx
EurUsd daily at an important up trandline for the whole month. Notice pressure from descending trendline of the monthly chart, in red. Daily Chart. {image}

Here is another simple view, with another added channel and RSI14.

EURUSD Daily chart since November 2013
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eun.png Size: 39 KB
  • #28
  • Feb 21, 2014 6:08am Feb 21, 2014 6:08am
What we are dealing with in EURAUD.

100sma in line w/ ascending trendline; 50ema glueing the range. 1.5025 marking the frontier and a upwards channel
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ead.png Size: 44 KB
  • #29
  • Feb 21, 2014 6:11am Feb 21, 2014 6:11am
Not expecting the pair to reach today, but none the less:

Buying (2x) EURCHF at around 1.2170 and 1.21500
  • #30
  • Feb 21, 2014 6:18am Feb 21, 2014 6:18am
Selling the Dax below 9607, trying to reach 9580. Above 9638 would put me out.

Watch out for CAD data at lunch hour and US home sales later on.
  • #31
  • Feb 21, 2014 6:45am Feb 21, 2014 6:45am
Quoting TLw_fx
Selling the Dax below 9607, trying to reach 9580. Above 9638 would put me out. Watch out for CAD data at lunch hour and US home sales later on.

And that order got eliminated (no loss is a win ). Looks like demand creeping in.
  • #32
  • Feb 21, 2014 6:50am Feb 21, 2014 6:50am
Quoting TLw_fx
USDJPY: So far that trendlibe is holding. i'm in with a small long w/ a target at 102.70 (sorry coulnd't post it here in advance). However, if this drags on to the sides will most likely close before us data at lunch hour.

Closed the Long, before its original TP. I'll do with the highs of Asia, on account of being Friday...
  • #33
  • Feb 21, 2014 6:59am Feb 21, 2014 6:59am
A simple view of the GBPUSD

Heavy resistance between 1.6875 and 1.7050.

Daily channel upwards and RSi14 above50

Daily chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gud.png Size: 33 KB
  • #34
  • Feb 21, 2014 7:06am Feb 21, 2014 7:06am
Now a weekly view of the GBPUSD

notice how it seems to be trapped between thos resistances.

Triangule clearly broken upwards: will it be a trap?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guw.png Size: 43 KB
  • #35
  • Feb 24, 2014 3:15am Feb 24, 2014 3:15am
Good week everyone.

That German IFO was good. Waiting for the 10am CPI release for the € to trade tu € pairs.

Meanwhile, looking to oportunities to short GBPCHF and go long on EURCAD and EURAUD, if conditions continue as such.

I'l leave this USDJPY daily chart here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ujd.png Size: 35 KB
  • #36
  • Feb 24, 2014 3:22am Feb 24, 2014 3:22am
Going Long in AUDUSD around 0.896*. Might reinforce 15 pips below.

Below 0.8940 would see me out.
  • #37
  • Edited 4:08am Feb 24, 2014 3:46am | Edited 4:08am
Remember 1.3770/80 is/was stacked with heavy sell orders. Let's see what 10am CPI data brings.
  • #38
  • Feb 24, 2014 4:03am Feb 24, 2014 4:03am
HICP +0.8%, December .8% and NOV .9%

I´m selling eu at around 1.37850 and 1.38000
  • #39
  • Feb 24, 2014 4:17am Feb 24, 2014 4:17am
Quoting TLw_fx
HICP +0.8%, December .8% and NOV .9% I´m selling eu at around 1.37850 and 1.38000
Y/Y was .1% higher today.


10am fix higher than friday's 4pm fix.
  • #40
  • Feb 24, 2014 5:39am Feb 24, 2014 5:39am
Buying EurUsd just above 1.37000, wich is also roughly the top of the daily cloud.
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