Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

Are you saying it is heading south. If yes, where?

I was hoping you would tell me.

There are certain 'waypoints' on the way down that will/should offer a bounce - and they're sometimes levels, sometimes they relate to the length of other moves, but sometimes they are fibonacci levels. If/when/where we bounce strongly will give us an idea as to what comes next. By strongly, I refer to more than 100 pips, not just ten or twenty.

Confidence kills. Remember, you really don't know anything.
Respect the market every second of every day. Expect the
unexpected. Always know your position and exit your trade
immediately whenever you feel uneasy.

Try to stay in the game. Survive.
I remember when I first walked onto the trading floor as a member back in 1978.
Prior to my going into trading, I was a CPA with a major Public Accounting firm, and had
worked in International Finance. I thought I knew something about business, and that this would
help me as a trader. I needed to pick the stocks I was going to trade in (I started trading as a
member of the option exchange, I didn't move to the Commodity Exchanges until the S&Ps
opened in 1982), so I reviewed several Annual reports and 10Ks.
Right from the beginning, I was losing money fairly consistently. It was pretty clear I didn't have
a clue how to trade from the floor. I watched traders that appeared to me to be making money. I
tried to understand what they were doing. I made an effort to try to join different traders at lunch
or having coffee.
There was this one "old guy" who was always on the floor, but stood off in the background. I
went over to him one day and introduced myself to him. He cut my introduction short and said
he tried not to make acquaintances with traders on the floor. He said traders come and go too
fast. He said "if your still here a year from now, then we'll talk." Then he turned and walked
away. He said it in a kind voice so I didn't find him rude.
Over the course of the following year I found many different ways to lose money. One
particularly prominent member offered me some advice one day, and even let me participate in
part of one of his trades. He sold 1,000 "out of the money" options for a 1/16th minimum tick (a
tiny) just moments before the options "expired". He graciously turned to me and asked if I
wanted a hundred. So I sold 100, he sold 900.
I was now short 100 $20 options at $6.25 each, or a total of $625. The stock closed on the
expiration Friday at $19.75 so the options were considered worthless. The next day I was
exercised on the 100 options making me short ten thousand shares of stock. I learned this just as
the announcement of a $28 takeover bid of that company was on the news tape.
On Monday, the stock didn't reopen for trading, there was a possible second bid. I found stock in
Europe on Wednesday to cover my shorts. The stock didn't reopen for trading for ten days.
When all was said and done, I had lost about $100,000 in return for the opportunity to make
$625.
When the stock reopened, it started trading at $28, and within a week walked back down to $20.
Two months later, the deal was done at $28.
The "prominent trader" lost about $800,000, and shrugged it off as a cost of doing business. He
just kept on selling "teennies".
One older trader in the pit had a heart attack and died.
Several traders were never seen again (obviously put out of business). And two brothers I talked
to often, made millions. They had thought something was going on and were long big before the
deal. They hadn't let me in on their guess.
Obviously, I didn't want to talk to anyone anymore to find out how they traded to make money. I
still had some capital left. I just put my head down and started trading. I became a scalper, just
buying and selling every moment trying to make an eight or scratch. I threw out the "annual
reports and 10Ks". I stopped reading the newspaper. I had to survive. I didn't want to leave a
place were there was the chance to maybe someday make millions like the brothers did.
Somehow, I made it through my first year. I got lucky and caught the 78 October massacre
being long a bunch of puts. (The brothers were long everything and nearly went broke in the
massacre.)
One day, I was wandering the floor and saw the "old guy". I remembered what he had said to me
about if I could survive a year. I was suddenly filled with pride. Sure it had been tough, but I
realized I had survived my first year! I was still here! I had seen a lot. I was now "one of the
boys". I walked over to the "old guy" thinking I was now gonna be able to talk to him. I started
the conversation saying "hey, you were right about how hard it is to make it through the first
year."
He cut me short and said "George, if you make it through another year, we'll talk." And he
walked away.
Every year times were tough. Every year times were great. Every year something new and
unexpected happened, many times over. I know if I saw that "old guy" now twenty years later he
would still say "George, if you make it through another year, we'll talk."
The point is if you want to be in this business, I believe you have to understand that the market
is a live, reeling, unpredictable, animal. Find what works today. Expect that it may not work
tomorrow. If it stops working, then find something else that works. If you get bumped from first
base, go play in right field. Learn how to be a short stop. You'll never have a chance to hit a
home run if your not in the game. If you love the game, try to stay in the game. Survive.

- Chapter 22, Principals and Psychology of Day Trading, by Georg Slezak

New channel forming?

"Respect the market, take what it gives and never ask for anything you can't have" is always my motto.

Thank you for this. Unfortunately I learnt that the hard way last night not taking profits when I was 100% up on my account and putting SL to breakeven only to have price come back up and hit it for nothing. Best not to be greedy..

Time: 04:59 AM GMT

BOUGHT GBP/JPY AT 1,70
TARGET 1,80
STOPS: NONE

That's a bold trade, especially without a SL.

You're looking at a 1000 pip Target, what's your timeframe and reasoning?

i think DAILY AND 4HR TIME FRAME HAS TURN TO BEARISH FOR NOW, WE CAN SEE 164 BEFORE WE EVEN THINK OF BULLISH GJ

Bold trade indeed. I could never hold a trade for 1000 pips. An easier way to make 1000 pips for me is ten 100-pip winners or twenty 50-pip winners, which shouldn't be too hard. GJ is just too volatile and 1000 pip in one direction could take a while.

Hello Caldera, Steve

Considering this a bold trade is in the eye of the beholder. I am a position trader as i do not believe in trading those short term swings. Contrary to what most believe, i think it is much easier and less stressful to trade the long term charts. But thats just my opinion. I am not a big fan of leverage, as a matter of fact when i start a trade i do not use any leverage at all. I keep leverage as my reserve gunpowder so to speak. That way i dont worry about them scary drawdowns . I place a lot of emphasis on fundamental analysis, which i want to stay clear of here at the forum as it involves politics. Just so much, I think the US and UK economy are embarking on a huge economic recovery...the EU(for now) is a different story. First we need to get rid of that fake currency...but thats again politics . Chartwise, if i look at the monthly chart i see upside targets which sometimes i do not even dare think about. Even on the shorter term charts i have to see anything yet, which points to any reversal, unless i look at the 5 minute chart or so.

P.S. Of course i look at the markets and observe when it might be the right time to admit that i was wrong. But placing stops is a bad idea in a market like GBP/JPY because it is full of random, erratic price moves. But the again, traders usually use stops cause they are leveraged (too much many times)... and with these spikes fear sets in pretty quickly.. As always, just my personal opinion.

May I ask, what do you think of the CAD/CHF right now?

SirMcPip,

I just think that if you're going to call a trade as you did, it needs to be backed up by some analysis (especially some TA), otherwise what's the point posting?

Thats your opinion ...in my eyes, this retail technical analysis that everyone is following is a bunch of crap. Thats why i cannot post any charts with beautiful Ma´s, S&R Lines, whatever. But dont worry, i dont post very often and Guppy is usually not my market, just a spur of the moment thing .

I really hope it works out for ya, I personally think GJ could go abit higher as well

Hello my friend

I am sorry but i really cannot give you any opinion about that market. I have never even looked at it. I have no knowledge, no feel whatsoever for it. It would only confuse you. Have a great day.

Entered Long at 169.90, SL 169.19, TP 1.7280 (1st target)

"this retail technical analysis that everyone is following is a bunch of crap"


So that is your opinion. What do you trade by, your gut feeling?

Should be a bounce off of the H1 200ema.......perhaps not, but still think it may turn soon.... it's right on the H4 200ema now, so watch to see if it breaks or yields....okay, I'll shut up!!!