GBPNZD trading calls

Pair looks very interesting right now.

What will happen at 1.9900? I think we will reverse from there. Needs to go there first, obviously, but now that NZDUSD is about to top and GBPUSD is continuing on in its breakout of a 4-year range upwards, the potential for this pair is huge.

Who else is trading this pair?

We're probably headed higher here at some point, the timing is tricky. I don't trade NZD though as it uses up too much margin. If I were trading I'd prefer to get in closer to 1.99 than 2. GL

It's tricky because I am very confident we will not see new low below 1.9630, and I am also very confident that we will make new highs above 2.0425 (and very likely 2.1000). The tricky part is do I just enter in now, or wait for a drop to 1.9900 that might not occur. It does look likely that we'll see 1.9900, but this choppiness is hard to read.

Well, the answer is I'll wait to see if 1.9900 gets hit. Got a buy order down there at 1.9915---gotta take into account the crazy spread on this pair. I feel like I'm kind of nitpicking to save 70 pips when I'm targeting over 1,000, but keeping an eye on this in case it starts to look like 1.9900 ain't happening.

I traded it yesterday. Bought it as a breakout. No volume to to keep it going so it failed as we can see. No volume today overall. Today might have another try - AUD minutes is coming out so might get the chance then. Although i'm going to be looking more at GBPAUD because it looks cleaner.

I really doubt NZDUSD has topped yet. The move down off the recent high was much to easy to get in to. Plus, the high came at an unimportant spot, so very unlikey to be THE high. GBPUSD looks to have made a bottom today, although not completely sure about that. NZDUSD will need to go up faster than GBPUSD if GBPNZD is going to go down. GBPNZD might even make it down to 1.9815, but I doubt it. 1.9450 is the ultimate spot where it should not go to before at least touching 2.1000.

GBPAUD doesn't look to have as much potential to me. I look at AUDNZD and it looks like it will be heading higher soon. If that happens then GBPNZD will be stronger.

I exited a GBPNZD long on Friday morning because price was too easy in that range. Not any fakes.

I love that pair. its very volatile and often give good opportunity.

Well, NZDUSD never did make a new high, it drifted lower instead. Same thing in reverse for GBPNZD. I still think we will see new highs for NZDUSD, and vice versa for GBPNZD. NZDUSD will make a high around .8420, that's what I'm expecting. For it to go there, it will need to travel over 120 pips from the bottom. This makes me think GBPNZD will also make a larger sell-off than what I expected last night. I changed my buy order on GBPNZD to 1.9800.

I think NZDUSD is even worth going long right now for 0.8400 target. It is riskier than some other trades, but still very likely, imo. I'm not going to post where my stop is, but I'll say that it is not greater than my target. It never is greater, and usually smaller.


EDIT: NEW low below 1.9880 for GBPNZD is what I meant. NOT below 1.9630

NZDUSD long is still on. Buy order for GBPNZD still on too.

Was tempted to move my stop to the low set last night at 0.8279 after today's small rally. It is something I would have done in the not-so-distant past, but experience tells me to give this some room---no more than I'm targeting, but in this case no less either. Probably one of my weakest trades, but I still think there's a good chance of winning so why not? This move down has been too easy, and you can see there's buying the whole way down so far. It should be back to .8400 soon.

Why is NZD/USD bullish? The daily chart looks very bearish to me with a shooting star and bearish engulfing. Somehow I find it hard to get a decent trade in this pair. It is ranging all the time.

Well, first I'd tell you to forget about patterns, at least the popular ones, and instead focus on where price makes its turns. Place a horizontal line on the highs/lows, go back to where that high/low last hit, and analyze why it would have reversed THERE! Why, why, why? Answers are on the chart, thankfully, or we'd all have to do a lot more reading. Instead we are reading the market, and price = words.

Also, observe the price action of entire moves and look to see what happened after. Look to see WHY price would have moved the way it did by, again, going back in time to when prices were last this spot.

It takes a lot of time and thought. I try to explain, but it only means something if you are studying the market in this way.

With all that said, I am not perfect either (not yet anyways, though I do think its possible to win every time, whilst not risking any more than your target). You get better with experience is my experience.

NZDUSD made a nice reversal last night. Encountered some selling (purple box), but the top wasn't at a strong spot. None of them have been, in fact, since we started the drop at .8392. The bottom at .8241 was not something that will hold for long, but it should be strong enough to get us back above .8400. There's nothing that will stop this pair from going to .8400 at this point, as far as I can see. That purple box was important.

Again, expecting a top around .8420. I expect this last move up (NZDUSD) to travel fairly quickly, and especially fast in the GBPNZD drop. It needs to look strong so we can have everybody and their brother shorting on the way back up---GBPNZD, that is. Opposite for NZDUSD. It'll be strong looking to the untrained eye, but already shows weakness in my eyes.

If all goes well, my long order in GBPNZD at 1.9800 should get filled (I'm thinking bid will hit around 1.9771). This will leave me well positioned for the next move....a fucking rocket launch to 2.1000!!! And guess what, most guys will be shorting the whole way up, saying shit like, "we're at the top of a range". Ranges were meant to be broken, folks.

With that said, I gotta keep a close eye on the move to make sure it moves like a truly strong move does. But now I'm getting ahead of myself.

been playing this pair from the long side for a while now. My latest longs are stopped at break even on this move down. I also think this pair has a lot more to go up so I'll probably get back in soon.

Will look at the price action around your mentioned level.

Price action was interesting the last 30 minutes of the week, very explosive. I think we'll see a nice gap up (NZDUSD) on our charts come Sunday afternoon (EST).

GBPUSD getting close to a bottom if its not already there. I expect that pair to chop around a bit more, though, while NZDUSD explodes to .8420. After that, the GBPNZD trade is on.

Didn't get the gap higher, but market reversed from that area anyway. Everything still looking good. GBPUSD will probably make another low below 1.6570, because low at 1.6582 doesn't look right. I'm thinking we'll see the high in NZDUSD and low in GBPNZD this week, maybe even in next day or two.

When we get these large 1-minute bars out of nowhere, it usually means shit is about to happen.

Everything still looking right to me. Right now just enjoying the positive roll.

I am playing GBPNZD to the upside. How about you?

Waiting for 1.9800 buy order to fill. Until then just holding this long on NZDUSD from last week, waiting for .8400 to unload it.