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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,961
  • Feb 18, 2014 1:37pm Feb 18, 2014 1:37pm
I think short term we are going to 169.70ish.
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  • #10,962
  • Feb 18, 2014 2:59pm Feb 18, 2014 2:59pm
Quoting rkr81
holding long target 173.10
This is the risk you are taking going long right now .... buying into so many confluences of resistance. Wish you happy pips cheers !!!
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  • #10,963
  • Feb 18, 2014 7:04pm Feb 18, 2014 7:04pm
nikkei opened with gap down. caution.
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  • #10,964
  • Edited 1:18am Feb 19, 2014 1:00am | Edited 1:18am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Whilst it may retrace up a fair way, based only on my limited experience I tend to favour a move down to around 169. 5 next. But, frankly, more data is needed before it becomes clear.
Its had enough time, methinks. While any break and hold now over 171 would be bullish to new highs, and while it can still break up as long as it remains over about 170, the formation in which it sits has an apex ROUGHLY around 170.8. It's spent most of its time under there (as opposed to the high side) so I think it will break down fairly soon. There may be a bounce at around 170, but after that a fall down into the low/mid 169 area or even 168x.

I expect three large bounces in all before it completes. The move to 169ish should be the first, but it all depends on whether it's correcting for a complete and finished move up from 164, or only part thereof.

In the first instance, it may eventually move down a long way (61.8/76 etc) , but in the second instance, probably not under 168.5
  • #10,965
  • Feb 19, 2014 1:39am Feb 19, 2014 1:39am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Its had enough time, methinks. While any break and hold now over 171 would be bullish to new highs, and while it can still break up as long as it remains over about 170, the formation in which it sits has an apex ROUGHLY around 170.8. It's spent most of its time under there (as opposed to the high side) so I think it will break down fairly soon. There may be a bounce at around 170, but after that a fall down into the low/mid 169 area or even 168x. I expect three large bounces in all before it completes. The move to 169ish should...
Essentially you picking both sides ...where are you entering is the 200 pip question ? short or long
  • #10,966
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:22am Feb 19, 2014 2:22am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Essentially you picking both sides ...where are you entering is the 200 pip question ? short or long
We have a lot of non-English speakers on these forums. I thought what I wrote was reasonably clear and logical.
  • #10,967
  • Feb 19, 2014 2:31am Feb 19, 2014 2:31am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} We have a lot of non-English speakers on these forums. I thought what I wrote was reasonably clear and logical.
Ahh I see, Its cool. Im bearish in the meantime.
  • #10,968
  • Feb 19, 2014 3:24am Feb 19, 2014 3:24am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Ahh I see, Its cool. Im bearish in the meantime.
Yes, sadly Cable is still the unknown factor
  • #10,969
  • Feb 19, 2014 3:31am Feb 19, 2014 3:31am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yes, sadly Cable is still the unknown factor
And there's the answer
  • #10,970
  • Feb 19, 2014 3:41am Feb 19, 2014 3:41am
hope you all caught some of that!!!!! i caught both the ride down for geppy and GU.
  • #10,971
  • Feb 19, 2014 4:10am Feb 19, 2014 4:10am
Quoting Kenjlau
hope you all caught some of that!!!!! i caught both the ride down for geppy and GU.
yeah caught 50 pips on the way down and done for the day. gratz to you as well.
  • #10,972
  • Feb 19, 2014 4:26am Feb 19, 2014 4:26am
Ok i must be dumb or something, why did good news on unemployment tank the GBP?
  • #10,973
  • Feb 19, 2014 5:01am Feb 19, 2014 5:01am
Quoting userbrn
Ok i must be dumb or something, why did good news on unemployment tank the GBP?
You're not dumb. A simple fact is that news NEARLY always takes a pair in the direction of the trend.
  • #10,974
  • Feb 19, 2014 5:18am Feb 19, 2014 5:18am
Well that just the most peculiar thing I've heard in a while... So basically the meaning of the news doesn't matter only the magnitude of the surprise (for the most part). By trend you're talking in a 4 hour-ish time frame right? Thanks for the help!
  • #10,975
  • Feb 19, 2014 5:34am Feb 19, 2014 5:34am
Quoting userbrn
Well that just the most peculiar thing I've heard in a while... So basically the meaning of the news doesn't matter only the magnitude of the surprise (for the most part). By trend you're talking in a 4 hour-ish time frame right? Thanks for the help!
I cannot explain it, other than to repeat what I wrote earlier. There was a discussion here some weeks ago about the same topic. Most news will, surprisingly, take it in the direction of the trend but if a correction is due, then news will start the correction. Even NFP will do the same, except that NFP will sometimes quickly complete and then reverse the trend - which makes it hard to deal with. Thems the facts.

Anyway, GJ is now cleared for new lows
  • #10,976
  • Feb 19, 2014 5:41am Feb 19, 2014 5:41am
news = OCO orders
  • #10,977
  • Feb 19, 2014 5:42am Feb 19, 2014 5:42am
reversal ?
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  • #10,978
  • Feb 19, 2014 5:48am Feb 19, 2014 5:48am
possible if GU breaks 1.665
  • #10,979
  • Feb 19, 2014 6:14am Feb 19, 2014 6:14am
Quoting ozboy
reversal ? {image}
It was a near perfect reversal - now we rest at the lower apex. It SHOULD bounce here, but if not, it's really bearish

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  • #10,980
  • Feb 19, 2014 6:57am Feb 19, 2014 6:57am
Quoting alldirex
I think short term we are going to 169.70ish.{image}
So far we got to 169.70. Maybe a small bounce, but to me it still looks bearish for now.
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