AUD/USD

I am trading my savings and the reason I asked was because I couldn't get rational answer as of why do you want to buy into 'unfilled' gap, which in fact has relatively high percentage possibility of filling itself

anyway, I've closed my short before hourly close and going to add higher, if there is any steam left to the upside

Closed my short. Look to re-enter higher up, or on a change in the picture that favours the bear case.

In the longer term, I am still looking at the AUDUSD with a downward bias. Last week's Strong CNY data has resulted in this rise (presumably short squeeze). Looking to short the pair again higher, probably at 0.91.

I've gone short at .90635 and agree with the general consensus that the AUD is heading south.

However, I'm still not entirely confident about this. On the one hand, the US economy is picking up, however there is talk of the USD going down. On the other hand, the Aussie economy is relatively strong, yet, the RBA wants the AUD much lower then where it is.

Looks like a fun ride coming up over the next 6 months.

looks like a possible short setup to me.. going short if it breaks through 9018.

could be a couple of things here. In the shorterm I am bearish. I think there is the possibility of a downward move to the .89197 area. If past that then next TP would be .88400.

Long term I think we could possibly see an upside down H&S pattern with a break to the upside.

Edit here:

Let me add that I believe there is a growing bullish USD consensus building with an outlook for the entire year. So be careful with any longer term longs here. I don't think that the H&S pattern possibility just mentioned is a strong one unless USD sentiment changes.

It is peculiar that Gold is rising AFTER the fed has been tapering and has made every intention to guide forward that it will continue to do so. I'll be watching this. But I want to add that it is strange how "don't fight the fed" proponents on easing are somewhat quiet on the other side of the fed's action now with the taper.

AUDUSD - Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

The Aussie did fill my short setup last week and got our 1:1, however it had recovered all of the drop, so where is it heading?


Daily Chart

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6vkdev8TNh...2-17_17-36.jpg

1. Trading into the clouds
2. Next major resistance is the fib level 38.2
3. Stochastic Negative divergence

Hourly Chart

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hnvmXJEXCR...2-17_17-36.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kJ3nAwKerr...2-17_17-36.jpg

1. 4hr ichikumo clouds is bullish (daily is bearish and trading in the clouds)
2. MACD negative divergence
3. The next move for the aussie is important, - as currently we have a minor support at 0.90030, if this holds, we will see further upside, and if it fails, then our bearish targets should be met.

Outlook Trade opportunity

We are still in our short trade (however i took partial profit when hit 1:1 last week)
NO further setups identified

Risk Level __


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below

if it doesn't bounce here..

0.9 or 0.875 is next support?... or both?

buy 029 sl 993

out 032

So you risked 36 pips in order to gain 3? People bail more quickly when in margin profits, and tend to hold on longer with loss...talk about risk aversion

....life and market is bitch

Hello,

late in the day they will be publishing the all important policy meeting minutes. Will it reflect a foreshadowing of those terrible jobs numbers of last week...?

as is, i'm "playing" the range game: (1) selling around 0.9050 and (2) buying around 0.9010 and around 0.90000. The emphasis being on the sell order.

Early afternoon fixes might change my orders (albeit not trading all day today).

confirmation candle

in 10 min more if PA move to my favour, i will move SL to daily pivot

Highly likely forming a double top. H4 is toppish.

Just wanted to say that the AUD/USD is moving very slow and annoying for all the day small traders.

And I find this post/forum to be very informative for making my own personal views of this pairs.

Eventually when I get time I will upload my understanding and impression of the direction.

I would just state that as of right now, the pair's movement is too insolvent (too slow) to be of any real effect with the ability of massive movements in either direction until something solid has taken place.

Although my biased opinion may be for it to go down to at least .8970 based off of some information I have read or watched, I am still stuck in peril as I am uncertain over the expectations of exactly when, or what will occur first and after what taking place.

I still wouldn't put it past the AUD/USD pair to attempt and shake things up before reaching their climatic move to the next direction as I always seem to find occurring (at least for myself).

I find myself constantly tangled in with I know its going to hit xyz, but 75% without fail it seems to immediately go against my believed logic almost as if to test my wits and endurance actually hitting that number which within a couple hours if not a couple half hours it does hit the number, just as I close out too soon or get closed out and open another trade.

Anyone else ever feel the same way?

Update... with the intraday trendline broken in the London session and the US holiday we're not seeing much new activity. If there was a case for being neutral with a slight bullish bias at Friday's close Sunday's gap open higher took away any opportunity to get in. This subsequent consolidation after the intraday trendline break also takes away a strong case for a bearish view.
The only possible trade was to sell again at 6x during Asia hours and stop-out above resistance with a good risk/reward at those levels.
RBA minutes tonight... let's see what happens.

most likely RBA will look to talk down the Aussie. Their tone is not going to change unless there are more encouraging economic data.

May have to revisit some longs here after all... could break the upside on the minutes...