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AUD/USD

  • #72,661
  • Feb 14, 2014 9:39pm Feb 14, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Why would you go long after a rally? You're suffering from whiplash.
oh i got so caught up in trying to understand the fundamentals that i forgot wave theory for a second. but i bet that's all it takes though to lose your shirt.
  • #72,662
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:03pm Feb 14, 2014 10:03pm
Quoting c3p0
{quote} oh i got so caught up in trying to understand the fundamentals that i forgot wave theory for a second. but i bet that's all it takes though to lose your shirt.
Wave theory...no, that's not it. Just saying these kinds of moves are intended to disorient people. It won't necessarily go down at this point but right now isn't the time to build long positions either. Once all the retail players capitulate is exactly when banks are charging.
  • #72,663
  • Feb 14, 2014 10:13pm Feb 14, 2014 10:13pm
Us will bounce
  • #72,664
  • Feb 15, 2014 12:01am Feb 15, 2014 12:01am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Wave theory...no, that's not it. Just saying these kinds of moves are intended to disorient people. It won't necessarily go down at this point but right now isn't the time to build long positions either. Once all the retail players capitulate is exactly when banks are charging.
Well said! This trap started when RBA released their unemployment data. i can see that the trap isnt over yet maybe its just started. it might go down to 88- 87 but i have a strong feeling that will not hit 85 as everybody expects 85
Stupid people will mistake your confidence for arrogance
  • #72,665
  • Feb 15, 2014 4:10pm Feb 15, 2014 4:10pm
AUD was lagging a bit against the USD compared to other pairs last week. I am taking this as an opportunity to get short with a break of 0.9090 proving me wrong.

Here is my current view of the pair:

Inserted Video
  • #72,666
  • Edited 5:54pm Feb 15, 2014 5:32pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting JCL's-Forex
AUD was lagging a bit against the USD compared to other pairs last week. I am taking this as an opportunity to get short with a break of 0.9090 proving me wrong. Here is my current view of the pair: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlBFOq78518
I don't agree with this, I'd rather be neutral. Your GU and EU views are similar to what I'm thinking. AU 903x is somewhat no man's land on a variety of TFs, if possible I'd still rather trade from the long side (perhaps at better levels 900x or 902x depending on the TF) unless sentiment turns more clearly. Especially with risk maintaining a bid and the S&P (ESH4) possibly taking another crack at 1850 resistance, an attempt still early in its development.
A bearish AUD view, and in general a bearish risk currency view particularly against the USD due to US equities, may or may not eventually prove correct but currently seems premature.
Let's see what happens on the Welly open tomorrow.
  • #72,667
  • Feb 15, 2014 6:24pm Feb 15, 2014 6:24pm
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...psa05be688.jpg

AUDUSD at a critical crossroad with major resistance at .9050. A day candle close will provide a clearer picture.

Also seems to be resisted by the MA.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #72,668
  • Feb 15, 2014 6:26pm Feb 15, 2014 6:26pm
Quoting Ssm
{image} AUDUSD at a critical crossroad with major resistance at .9050. A day candle close will provide a clearer picture. Also seems to be resisted by the MA.

http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps2a3b08cb.jpg

Are we forming a double top? Expect to meet with heavy resistance if price goes up to that resistance level.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #72,669
  • Feb 15, 2014 7:40pm Feb 15, 2014 7:40pm
Is this not hidden bullish divergence on every indicator?

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  • #72,670
  • Feb 15, 2014 8:04pm Feb 15, 2014 8:04pm
I guess it will do this. the orange lines are from the last pic on smaller time frame.

after posting I spotted the bullish divergence on the macd.

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  • #72,671
  • Feb 15, 2014 11:42pm Feb 15, 2014 11:42pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=471242
Gap down ?
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Stupid people will mistake your confidence for arrogance
  • #72,672
  • Edited 12:44am Feb 16, 2014 12:33am | Edited 12:44am
"Critical resistance" is irrelevant. It's going to drop some, then bounce before it enters the liquidity gap around 0.8913. After that it's going to continue rallying according to what I see.

Edit: To be clear I don't think it has a LOT of more upside. I just don't think it's quite done yet.
  • #72,673
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:42am Feb 16, 2014 12:42am
Shorting this trap. Until 88-87 something. RBA might talk down the Aussie again and bearish boys will ride their jawboning only to get stopped out in the long run...
Stupid people will mistake your confidence for arrogance
  • #72,674
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:47am Feb 16, 2014 12:47am
With the help of RBA they will talk down AUD and break trendline signaling bears to come. Oh its a trap!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stupid people will mistake your confidence for arrogance
  • #72,675
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:08am Feb 16, 2014 10:08am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} I don't agree with this, I'd rather be neutral. Your GU and EU views are similar to what I'm thinking. AU 903x is somewhat no man's land on a variety of TFs, if possible I'd still rather trade from the long side (perhaps at better levels 900x or 902x depending on the TF) unless sentiment turns more clearly. Especially with risk maintaining a bid and the S&P (ESH4) possibly taking another crack at 1850 resistance, an attempt still early in its development. A bearish AUD view, and in general a bearish risk currency view particularly against...
Yeah, I actually do agree with you. I am very neutral on the AUDUSD currently. It is hard to tell. Sentiment is definitely slightly bullish but we are trading at resistance and the pair lagged against the USD last week compared to others. The possible credit crunch out of China is a big concern for me. I am neutral and only looking to sell at this resistance knowing and looking for a break of it to go long.
  • #72,676
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:22am Feb 16, 2014 11:22am
A simple view of the weekly audusd. Closed above that broken support...but so it did last time in past January.
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  • #72,677
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:15pm Feb 16, 2014 4:15pm
First trade of the week

Sold at 0.90585, tp 0.90422

fill the gap, may you
  • #72,678
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:18pm Feb 16, 2014 4:18pm
buy 054 sl 040
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #72,679
  • Feb 16, 2014 4:20pm Feb 16, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting Suffo
buy 054 sl 040
Are u trading real money?
  • #72,680
  • Edited 4:38pm Feb 16, 2014 4:21pm | Edited 4:38pm
yes and you?
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
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