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AUD/USD

  • #72,601
  • Feb 13, 2014 2:12am Feb 13, 2014 2:12am
UBS' FX Morning Adviser on Australian employment fail today.
  • #72,602
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:28am Feb 13, 2014 4:28am
Forex trading strategy AUD/USD February 13,2014:
Sell limit : 0.8975 - 0.8995
Stop loss : 0.9060
Take Profit : 0.8865
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex trading AUDUSD.PNG Size: 46 KB
  • #72,603
  • Edited 9:36am Feb 13, 2014 9:24am | Edited 9:36am
Short AU at 898x, let's see how it goes
Just realized the guy above me posted something similar. ick lol. well for me,
i'm not going to have such an aggressive target as it's basically impossible to get there before tonight's number, but let's see if we come off some
  • #72,604
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:42am Feb 13, 2014 9:42am
Short from 0,9015 and 0,8950.
  • #72,605
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:47am Feb 13, 2014 9:47am
Asian names selling into this AUDUSD rally; note the stops in good size under .8900​
  • #72,606
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:58am Feb 13, 2014 9:58am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Asian names selling into this AUDUSD rally; note the stops in good size under .8900​
I don't trust that feed so much, I've looked at it sometimes but i'm not sure if you'd bat more than 50% using it.
But yes of course there are stops under 891x, doesn't mean they will trip any time soon. In fact, people are probably going to stop out well before that level since everyone is watching that level which means any downside will be limited a lot more than the feed suggests (maybe).

Let's put it this way: As always, the PA could be data dependent which doesn't help us because we don't have a crystal ball.
So many Asian sessions go like this:
Number -> move -> dead
  • #72,607
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:01am Feb 13, 2014 10:01am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} I don't trust that feed so much, I've looked at it sometimes but i'm not sure if you'd bat more than 50% using it. But yes of course there are stops under 8900, doesn't mean they will trip any time soon.
Stops under the post-AUD job data low of .8925 would be enough to push price lower, imo. Chinese trade data still supporting Aud even after the jobs data yesterday.
  • #72,608
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:06am Feb 13, 2014 10:06am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Stops under the post-AUD job data low of .8925 would be enough to push price lower, imo. Chinese trade data still supporting Aud even after the jobs data yesterday.
Unlikely to see 8925 price before CNY CPI and could be dependent on that data just like yesterday when we were still at 9025 before the employment data. Today we could be at 8950 which is still binary. Anyway, right now it doesn't even look like it wants to come off 898x, I'm going to sit on my short at 8985 though and see what happens.
  • #72,609
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:09am Feb 13, 2014 10:09am
Jobs disappointing numbers were expected, however, I was slightly surprised Aussie during London was reluctant to keep momentum to the downside
  • #72,610
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:12am Feb 13, 2014 10:12am
Chinese CPI looks to be the only catalyst to move the AUD for the remainder of the week. A bad enough number could send another wave through Aud/Nzd/Cad again.
Looks like Aud/Usd is just drifting up through yesterday's employment gap down.
  • #72,611
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:13am Feb 13, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Paulenok
Jobs disappointing numbers were expected, however, I was slightly surprised Aussie during London was reluctant to keep momentum to the downside
bad shorts sub 895x is what it looks like to me, with hangman support there, thinking people will cover if they move it up here before the number.
downside vefry likely to be capped above 8950 before the number.
  • #72,612
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:14am Feb 13, 2014 10:14am
Commonwealth Bank's report on Australian Labour Force/Jan 2014 figures
  • #72,613
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:23am Feb 13, 2014 10:23am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} Unlikely to see 8925 price before CNY CPI and could be dependent on that data just like yesterday when we were still at 9025 before the employment data. Today we could be at 8950 which is still binary. Anyway, right now it doesn't even look like it wants to come off 898x, I'm going to sit on my short at 8985 though and see what happens.
China data also notorious for leaks, so if we trade back down but higher than 895x then this was probably just a play to get shorts to cover. If we don't trade back down at all however in the next 7-8 hours, then we could genuinely be heading back above 0.90 again signalling good data. However, my sense for now is still this is a play to knock out the obvious bad shorts below 895x, some of whom already covered in this 75-85 range.
  • #72,614
  • Feb 13, 2014 12:18pm Feb 13, 2014 12:18pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} China data also notorious for leaks, so if we trade back down but higher than 895x then this was probably just a play to get shorts to cover. If we don't trade back down at all however in the next 7-8 hours, then we could genuinely be heading back above 0.90 again signalling good data. However, my sense for now is still this is a play to knock out the obvious bad shorts below 895x, some of whom already covered in this 75-85 range.
More bad shorts at 7x? I bailed for -3. Nothing's going on, there are bteter opprotunities. It could still come down but for me if nothing's going on and it's not going in the desired direction quickly enough, juts bail.. gotta go, gl
  • #72,615
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:07pm Feb 13, 2014 4:07pm
AUD .8975

RBA is still talking down the AUD/USD in early morning here.

My theory behind RBA's weak currency stance is so they can raise interest rates which will have minimal impact on exports even though our Labor costs have more to do with it than exchange rates.

We have risk off Friday so this may give it some added downside pressure.

Lets see what Asia does with equities after Wall St's lead.



Good luck
  • #72,616
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:31pm Feb 13, 2014 4:31pm
Quoting Paulenok
Jobs disappointing numbers were expected, however, I was slightly surprised Aussie during London was reluctant to keep momentum to the downside
Agreed, something we are missing - not accounting for.
Can anybody shed some light?
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #72,617
  • Feb 13, 2014 4:50pm Feb 13, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting MrketSniper
I am entering long. Aiming for 0.8960-0.8970. Then short again.
Closed my long at 0.8970 and opened short at 0.8985.
  • #72,618
  • Feb 13, 2014 5:17pm Feb 13, 2014 5:17pm
Quoting MrketSniper
{quote} Closed my long at 0.8970 and opened short at 0.8985.

good luck with those shorts
  • #72,619
  • Feb 13, 2014 5:22pm Feb 13, 2014 5:22pm
Quoting nolagator
{quote} good luck with those shorts
oh man.. comments like that make my mind go like this.

1. AUD is going into uptrend
2. Oh good luck, thanks
3. Hmm, could it go into an uptrend
4. oh crap it might go up - should I close and enter long
5. arrghh
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #72,620
  • Feb 13, 2014 5:46pm Feb 13, 2014 5:46pm
Anyone actually have a strong conviction here? We are sitting at 4hr pivots.
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