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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #10,781
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:33am Feb 12, 2014 10:33am
Yes, I know patience is the key. Thank you!
  • #10,782
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:46am Feb 12, 2014 10:46am
Quoting 2301041124
{quote} I am very interested at your Greed&Fear indices. How did you get that?
Im going to give the indicator away if anyone can answer me that question right:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post7266676

Its obvious that there were longs up and shorts down, I wanna know why happend what happend.

Im off my desk, catch ya up later guys.

Inserted Video
  • #10,783
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:48am Feb 12, 2014 10:48am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Im going to give the indicator away if anyone can answer me that question right: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post7266676 Its obvious that there were longs up and shorts down, I wanna know why happend what happend. Im off my desk, catch ya up later guys. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOHpaPh62os
Please if you can attach one.
  • #10,784
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:58am Feb 12, 2014 10:58am
I think it was like this:

Traders are greedy and they want more and more. They entered LONG positions when price goes up. Big boys know how to trade and they entered SHORT positions. Price went down, trades fear and closed their LONG (or hit SL) and opened SHORT. This is place where big boys opened LONG trades.
or
Traders opened LONG positions and market makers make price to hit their SL, this is where big boys entered LONG positions.

BIG BOYS: Greed -> SHORT, FEAR -> LONG
  • #10,785
  • Feb 12, 2014 11:28am Feb 12, 2014 11:28am
Quoting Temujin
170.28 The 200 SMA on the H4 chart may end the party. It has to power through that now, otherwise the 600 pip move is way over extended. I'll go short here at 179.65 and leave it for a couple days.
For me we are already through levels that defined the most recent downtrend. Whilst I am not going to chase the highs here at 170 any retracements are probably capped at 169 in the near term. It's all a bit silly tbh but markets go where they want to go. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense of swing short for multilple big figures at this time. At best you're early, at worst you're wrong.
if S&P manages to hold above 1800 and heads for a 1850 break we could be seeing 171+ soon.
On a DAILY basis we have not run into enough GJ upside stops, when there is a total capitulation like the capitulation down to 164 then a short would look a lot better
At the end of the day it depends on what people do and whether some of the obvious bad shorts in the market stop out or not, particularly in USDJPY
  • #10,786
  • Feb 12, 2014 11:33am Feb 12, 2014 11:33am
Quoting Jure86
I think it was like this: Traders are greedy and they want more and more. They entered LONG positions when price goes up. Big boys know how to trade and they entered SHORT positions. Price went down, trades fear and closed their LONG (or hit SL) and opened SHORT. This is place where big boys opened LONG trades. or Traders opened LONG positions and market makers make price to hit their SL, this is where big boys entered LONG positions. BIG BOYS: Greed -> SHORT, FEAR -> LONG
Agree with this ^

I couldn't have put it any better
  • #10,787
  • Feb 12, 2014 11:33am Feb 12, 2014 11:33am
that stupid fear greed indicator does the same thing that stochastic + rsi combined does. price action and strength of the move. overall move can be read by macd.. don't get too excited about some indicator guys. if you can't figure out when price is going to swing low or high or if people are selling or buying, you should go back and study some more
  • #10,788
  • Feb 12, 2014 11:46am Feb 12, 2014 11:46am
I'm going to give the indicator away if anyone can answer me that question right: "FX-Ray"

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post7266676

Its obvious that there were longs up and shorts down, I wanna know why happend what happend.


First why it happened: There are 3 basic phases in the price action: Accumulation, Price Mark up and Distribution.

What happened is related to why it happened: Most retail traders rely on indicators and engulfing patterns, something that signifies there is a change in direction that HAS ALREADY occurred. Before that time banks have already accumulated at the best prices high or low. To flush out any traders taking the same early position they create stopping volume at the tops and bottoms.

Now comes the mark-up or mark-down phase where the banks profit from buyers or sellers coming in. They already grabbed the best prices and as the ride nears the end they pop the distribution at an extreme price, flush out all the early riders along with them and start to accumulate again.

It's an ongoing cycle of accumulation, price direction and retail inducement destruction at the end of the cycle.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,789
  • Feb 12, 2014 11:53am Feb 12, 2014 11:53am
Quoting Temujin
I'm going to give the indicator away if anyone can answer me that question right: "FX-Ray" http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post7266676 Its obvious that there were longs up and shorts down, I wanna know why happend what happend. First why it happened: There are 3 basic phases in the price action: Accumulation, Price Mark up and Distribution. What happened is related to why it happened: Most retail traders rely on indicators and engulfing patterns, something that...
they pop the distribution at an extreme price, this is the key. and not talking about intraday stuff. for swing trading multi figures you have to wait for the day where there is a total capitulation, otherwise you're early and are going to panic on the day where the distribution goes extreme no matter how good of a price you thought you got. Right now is a case in point. GJ looks overbought until you realize that GU is 2 days through the daily pivot and GJ is also now through the daily pivot. We've moved roughly at the same pace higher each day in GJ. You need a day where GJ moves higher by maybe twice as much in one session as we've moved in the past 5-6 sessions before the market movers can be considered to have accumulated shorts

Now, this is not set in stone, multi doji reversals happen all the time too. But usually a lot of people sitting on positions are stubborn and don't give up until the extreme distribution day which is exactly the day they should be going the other way. Today is not an extreme distribution day
  • #10,790
  • Feb 12, 2014 11:56am Feb 12, 2014 11:56am
Interesting how when I went short at 169.75 and turned my back for 10 minutes they blasted me with a 45 pip buying frenzy. That was the distribution pop and early rider stop. Except I was not that alarmed because I starting thinking the ride was over somewhere around here.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,791
  • Edited 12:26pm Feb 12, 2014 12:12pm | Edited 12:26pm
Quoting Temujin
Interesting how when I went short at 169.75 and turned my back for 10 minutes they blasted me with a 45 pip buying frenzy. That was the distribution pop and early rider stop. Except I was not that alarmed because I starting thinking the ride was over somewhere around here.
This happens especially if your size is too big and there isn't enough volume in the market. Your position ends up being a sore thumb at a particular price point and the position ends up getting trapped and then the chart starts showing hangman supports right above where you sold irrespective of what level you did it at. And then it moves 1% the other way. I've made this mistake before. Sometimes it's hard to accept this really is a zero-sum game, unless you're trading 1 lot you're going to run into enemies who want to screw you after you put the position on
So paper trading is ABSOLUTELY NOT the same as live trading because of this.

The solution is to use low margin, ONLY trade when the market is very busy, and average in judiciously at exhaustion points if necessary.
So here if you sold at 169.75 you'd expect to see 170.75 unless you stop out before. And then two days later it might come back to 169.90 and again a hangman there right before you're in the money. Typical stuff. At the end of the day SOMEBODY has to go long at a higher price than you sold and then run it even longer than you for you to make money unless you're exchanging positions withanother retail trader at an exhaustion point. Otherwise you're exchanging positions with a market mover -> DISASTER!
  • #10,792
  • Feb 12, 2014 12:23pm Feb 12, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} This happens especially if your size is too big and there isn't enough volume in the market. Your position ends up being a sore thumb at a particular price point and the position ends up getting trapped and then the chart starts showing hangman supports right above where you sold irrespective of what level you did it at. And then it moves 1% the other way. I've made this mistake before. Sometimes it's hard to accept this really is a zero-sum game, unless you're trading 1 lot you're going to run into enemies who want to screw you after you...
I expect to see 170.80 here, the problem is that everybody can see that level so I am not sure if we are to going to see it. I take this leg as overextended with some work left undone south. I would be more careful with aggressive longs but it wouldn't be a bad idea to start building small short positions from here.
  • #10,793
  • Feb 12, 2014 12:30pm Feb 12, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I expect to see 170.80 here, the problem is that everybody can see that level so I am not sure if we are to going to see it. I take this leg as overextended with some work left undone south. I would be more careful with aggressive longs but it wouldn't be a bad idea to start building small short positions from here.
If we go to 171 TODAY i'll sell there. If we consolidate here forget about it, we're going up more unless we stall here for multiple days including a retest of 169
It's not hard to imagine that at all. UJ through 102.70, GU through 1.66, that'll get us to 170.50. Then another wave of capitulation takes us to 170.80+
  • #10,794
  • Feb 12, 2014 12:36pm Feb 12, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} If we go to 171 TODAY i'll sell there. If we consolidate here forget about it, we're going up more unless we stall here for multiple days including a retest of 169
It makes sense. In a few mins I will probably close all my shorts and do the same. However, now Carney is speaking on ITV news live.
  • #10,795
  • Feb 12, 2014 1:29pm Feb 12, 2014 1:29pm
Kind of a rapid run in 6 days. Too fast there I think. Hope FX-Ray will credit us for having some kind of correct analysis on that chart. That indicator is too cool. Very blunt. Fear.........Greed....Awesome.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,796
  • Feb 12, 2014 5:34pm Feb 12, 2014 5:34pm
missing number 5?
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  • #10,797
  • Feb 12, 2014 5:44pm Feb 12, 2014 5:44pm
Don't seem to recall ever seeing a 4 that trades into wave 1 territory, unless it's in a triangle.
  • #10,798
  • Feb 12, 2014 5:45pm Feb 12, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting ozboy
missing number 5? {image}
Wave 4 cant overlap wave 1
  • #10,799
  • Feb 12, 2014 6:08pm Feb 12, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Wave 4 cant overlap wave 1
thank you to point out. so bear may be in danger ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,800
  • Feb 12, 2014 6:16pm Feb 12, 2014 6:16pm
Quoting ozboy
{quote} thank you to point out. so bear may be in danger ? {image}
It looks that way so far. Most of the previous posts have covered it pretty well.
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