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  • #72,521
  • Feb 11, 2014 9:57pm Feb 11, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Yeah so if the higher low was broken then that would form a new high, then a retrace move down after that at some stage would be a lower high.
Cool. I guess it's how you define your fractals. Each to there own. I use the power of 2 if I'm getting technical,some use 3,4 or 5, but prefer I to use my eyes.
Your opinion is valued.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #72,522
  • Feb 11, 2014 9:58pm Feb 11, 2014 9:58pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} could be worth a short scalp at 6x with a tight stop above the obvious key levels since this is the first test. if it goes though it goes i'm gonna skip this. if we do come off i'll reload longs closer to the TWAP, missed the trade balance train and the risk/reward to buying exactly right before a big key level usually isn't that great. especially not spiking towards it on a news event
What if it breaks the high then comes back down in as a false break trigger all the stops?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #72,523
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:01pm Feb 11, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} What if it breaks the high then comes back down in as a false break trigger all the stops?
levels tend not to go on "spikish" price action or because of a numbers coin-flip especially if the spike itself doesn't take it through. reason being the numbers move isn't really on high grinding volume, it's just dominated by some small news trading teams that's trying to take advantage of low liquidity conditions and get you to pay them high
now with relatively low probability there could be a false breakout higher but if the stops trigger you have to be long at the instant of the trigger and be nimble about any potential TP in case it is false. an algo/EA may be able to handle it better than a human
that's why if you miss the train on a coin flip you never just pay it especially if it stops ticking, here there was no real follow-through volume, we have to wait more to see how it settles, but if you wanted to, a short scalp at 6x was reasonable
  • #72,524
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:02pm Feb 11, 2014 10:02pm
Quoting bogus
{quote} Cool. I guess it's how you define your fractals. Each to there own. I use the power of 2 if I'm getting technical,some use 3,4 or 5, but prefer I to use my eyes. Your opinion is valued.
Yes totally, to each is own with whatever works for them, theres no one way to trade, just like theirs no one way to do anything (driving, musical instruments, singing) etc etc. If it works for that individual, great, that's what matters at the end of the day. All of our opinions should be valued just as equally
After all anything can happen. I am really anticipating seeing what does play out once the unemployment data comes out.
  • #72,525
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:04pm Feb 11, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} levels tend not to go on "spikish" price action or because of a numbers coin-flip especially if the spike itself doesn't take it through. reason being the numbers move isn't really on high grinding volume, it's just dominated by some small news trading teams that's trying to take advantage of low liquidity conditions and get you to pay them high now with relatively low probability there could be a false breakout higher but if the stops trigger you have to be long at the instant of the trigger and be nimble about any potential TP in case...
So we are good just shorting at resistance then yea?!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #72,526
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:05pm Feb 11, 2014 10:05pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} So we are good just shorting at resistance then yea?!
I bought EURAUD already although the support looks weak
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #72,527
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:05pm Feb 11, 2014 10:05pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} So we are good just shorting at resistance then yea?!
for now, probably yeah , we've still got many hours until tomorrow's data. if it does go before the data and HOLDS though, then tomorrow may see 0.920x but I view this also as a bit unlikely. Yellen was a better shot than trade balance and it didn't happen on Yellen
I wouldn't do it in EA, as EU can still come lower (you have 50pips left until 1.49xx) but AU at 6x was OK
  • #72,528
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:12pm Feb 11, 2014 10:12pm
For me the trend (of which there are many) changed at the lower yellow line. I see the next yellow box up as the next swing. The low has to get taken out for my down trend to resume. That is a 4 hour chart which is about as high as I go. Picking a level and saying it is going to suddenly change is a skill I leave to a very few experts....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #72,529
  • Feb 12, 2014 5:47am Feb 12, 2014 5:47am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} I'm not sensitive, been in FX since 2009 and just here to help and also see how other experienced guys think... the many people that stepped in to get slaughtered after my posts yesterday does make me a bit upset because I don't feel that I'm helping anyone. i'm often wrong but there are some situations where it's basically almost always wrong to go a certain direction in my experience, and i try to point those out My sense is that this poster is a troll trying to feed people into taking the wrong trade so I ignored him
Don't get upset - some may take a while to learn to listen, others may be seeing how things play out and who was giving good advice in retrospect. Your posts have certainly given me some food for thought. I was too slow to react to last RBA statement partly as am aware it was RBA who voiced opinion that price of .8XXX was about right.

I think you were a bit quick to label sailyfee a troll. Those with a long term view could still look at it as a downtrend (from 1.058 to .8660) with this and even the 23 Oct high just pull packs, they had just better have good risk management to keep shorting all the way up and there are better alternatives. I for one am still learning my style.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #72,530
  • Edited 6:58am Feb 12, 2014 6:44am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} for now, probably yeah , we've still got many hours until tomorrow's data. if it does go before the data and HOLDS though, then tomorrow may see 0.920x but I view this also as a bit unlikely. Yellen was a better shot than trade balance and it didn't happen on Yellen I wouldn't do it in EA, as EU can still come lower (you have 50pips left until 1.49xx) but AU at 6x was OK
Now EA is cheap but there are the obvious stops right below 1.50, you can pick up a high reward/risk long scalp with the obvious tight flip stop if you want, especially given the higher GU
And there we go, breaking at this stage in time isn't so easy. EU got sold off too much locally
Take it +20, look for something else
  • #72,531
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:05am Feb 12, 2014 10:05am
I think there is a good chance that we go up by another 100 pips on A/U over the next 24 hours.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #72,532
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:07am Feb 12, 2014 10:07am
Quoting Boy Wonder
I think there is a good chance that we go up by another 100 pips on A/U over the next 24 hours.
Why do you say that?
  • #72,533
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:08am Feb 12, 2014 10:08am
Quoting johnbrennan
{quote} Why do you say that?
Is it because of the recent fall?
  • #72,534
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:09am Feb 12, 2014 10:09am
Quoting Boy Wonder
I think there is a good chance that we go up by another 100 pips on A/U over the next 24 hours.
She's hovering around 9034 at the moment.
  • #72,535
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:16am Feb 12, 2014 10:16am
there's employment report in approx 8 hours.... so we'll know if that 100 pips up comes along....

i'm having short bias now though
  • #72,536
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:22am Feb 12, 2014 10:22am
Quoting johnbrennan
{quote} Is it because of the recent fall?
John I look at many things, and my conclusion is that there is a better than 50-50 chance that this goes up by 100 pips over the next 24 hours. That is regardless of the content of the employment report. The setup is there for this to go up by another 100 pips.
I am still short and I will still be short 100 pips higher. Beyond that I will be greasing myself into damage limitation mode, probably by selling a shitload of ATM puts.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #72,537
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:25am Feb 12, 2014 10:25am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} John I look at many things, and my conclusion is that there is a better than 50-50 chance that this goes up by 100 pips over the next 24 hours. That is regardless of the content of the employment report. The setup is there for this to go up by another 100 pips. I am still short and I will still be short 100 pips higher. Beyond that I will be greasing myself into damage limitation mode, probably by selling a shitload of ATM puts.

What things? Care to elaborate
  • #72,538
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:33am Feb 12, 2014 10:33am
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} What things? Care to elaborate
Nope

Anyway, what I see or don't see is of no significance. I didn't expect it to get this far so I'm already wrong at this stage.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #72,539
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:36am Feb 12, 2014 10:36am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Nope Anyway, what I see or don't see is of no significance. I didn't expect it to get this far so I'm already wrong at this stage.
I think that Paulenok was curious to find out why you made that assumption. I am interested to find out too. What did you base it on?
  • #72,540
  • Feb 12, 2014 10:42am Feb 12, 2014 10:42am
As I have stated earlier this week, with the reasons I mentioned, I can hardly see employment figures beatings forecast, if that is the case, which is most likely, I will be looking for 0.8915 re-test
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